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admin_270 last won the day on October 16

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  1. I would disagree. There is common-sense, anecdotal, and survey results evidence (I've linked to both surveys before that I'm aware of, can dig up the links if you're interested) to suggest Trump voters are less likely to be honest to pollsters about their voting intentions. There is a phenomenon known about in social science research called social desirability bias, which seems to me to be plausibly applicable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias
  2. That would be epic! So why do I think it's more likely to be biased against Trump? Voting dynamics and polling problems from the 2016 election are our best guide to this election. But sure - I don't have a problem with polls not being reliable. My prediction (and main reason for thinking polls are off) is because almost every major fundamental points towards a Trump win. Primaries % for an incumbent -> Trump People in each party who strongly support the candidate -> Trump Economic indicators -> Trump Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump Chan
  3. Congress Infinity v. 3.3.2 update released! This release fixes a couple bugs, improves the Ads Screen, adds the Editor Issues Screen, adds Options > Auto Spin, adds Options > Help, adds Options > Fullscreen, updates Senate – 2020 Covid-19 issue position descriptions, improves the Strategy Screen, and more! https://270soft.com/2020/10/23/congress-infinity-beta-v-3-3-2/ (Any comments, please make them at the blog.)
  4. Was that back when they needed individual donor thresholds for the debates?
  5. Checked and Trump has lower $ small individual contributions, but higher %, than Biden. I believe these numbers are from mid-Oct. Trump > Small Individual Contributions (< $200) $268,172,675 45.00% https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/donald-trump/candidate?id=N00023864 Biden > Small Individual Contributions (< $200) $368,342,252 38.80% https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/joe-biden/candidate?id=N00001669
  6. Yes, huge fundraising for Biden. However, I believe Trump has beat Biden in small donor fundraising.
  7. Click the '...' top right of comment. Click share. Copy link, paste to browser. Bookmark.
  8. Yesterday Trump campaign's biggest online fundraising day ever. $26M.
  9. Yes, very interesting to see where he goes next week. Speaking of Pence, Mon. > Rally > MN
  10. Seems like Trump campaign believes NH possible. This is the other half of the NV+NH possibility.
  11. Trump schedule currently Friday > Rally > FL (x2) Sat. > Rally > NC, OH, WI Sun. > Rally > NH Mon. > Rally > PA (x2)
  12. Yes, I would hope so. Having said that, Biden is in the crucial battleground state of ... Delaware, today.
  13. RCP FL ave. Oct. 10th Biden +3.7 -> Oct. 23rd Biden +1.5.
  14. When I was hiring coders (now I do it myself or work with 3rd parties), I didn't care if applicants had a university degree. There are pretty simple ways to get an idea for how good someone is at doing the relevant work. For universities, it's a bit trickier because you're looking for capabilities and motivation. Compounding the problem is many programs aren't about specific career tracks. How do apprenticeship programs work?
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