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  1. I just finished a book entitled White Trash that was written in 2016. While most books in the 21st century cover inequality/inequity focus on the black experience, this one covers those often called “white trash,” “poor whites,” “hillbillies,” “rednecks,” “mudsills,” “squatters,” etc. The book argues that a US class system exists today and has existed since European colonization. It also argues that most people not of this class have no interest in helping this class achieve upward mobility. This group is defined primarily by these traits: Mostly European ancestry, and p
    2 points
  2. Yeah, but if McCarthy would put up a fight rather than step aside is probably what vcczar meant.
    2 points
  3. Going from president to one of 435 congresspersons is a huge step down in prestige and visibility. Even if the GOP wins the house they might balk at electing a first term congressperson with an erratic leadership style to a position where he'll determine committee placements and the like.
    2 points
  4. I've moved on from this forum however I wrote some things I regret from back then (still quite young then) so I'm back here to quickly apologize and retract them.
    2 points
  5. Here's how the Polls Screen looks right now. I'm finding the polls fun, much more like real life - I especially like dropping $1M to get a +-0.5% poll in a battleground state. I'm debating whether to allow Fog of War to be turned off, which would make all polls accurate. If so, all polls would just have a standard cost.
    2 points
  6. It was likely the white suburban voters that shifted the election in Biden's favor. Look at the district in Nebraska. The Republican won re-election for that seat, but Biden had a significant margin to get the EV. In Texas, it is these areas that have started to shift Blue in recent elections (not necessarily the Hispanics or out-of-staters that people tend to initially point to). This would make sense considering the shifts that have occurred. Working class voters are moving Red while higher educated/elitist voters shift Blue. Some of the cultural phenomenons could help explain some of this s
    2 points
  7. Being a losing running mate is worse if you aspire to higher office. Losing VP candidates are hardly ever heard from again. Being VP rarely leads to the presidency and even more rarely a return to congress or a governor's seat.
    1 point
  8. To be fair though, DeSantis will be hit by the media in the same way. Though he'd be stronger (from what I have seen so far) in deflecting those attacks. I am not sure how Noem would do just yet.
    1 point
  9. Now that I'm thinking about it, DeSantis and Noem both have Gubernatorial and Congressional experience.
    1 point
  10. What's the Palin trap? Do you mean young Gov. who isn't up to speed on national issues? I agree with @jvikings1 that Noem is smarter than Palin, though.
    1 point
  11. She's smarter than Palin
    1 point
  12. At this point, I'd agree with you. But you never know what will happen in the course of a nomination campaign. A lot of people look good until the boxing match starts. Ya, same here. When evaluating primaries (or leadership battles in my country), I'm trying to figure out who would actually be the best at running the country. I find 'electability' arguments always a bit tricky - a lot of people who seem 'electable' aren't really, and some that don't seem electable are.
    1 point
  13. Yeah, I'm in favor of breaking up all monopolies, including media monopolies. DeSantis is clearly a better pick than Trump--and better than Cruz, Paul, Lee, Cotton, Pompeo, Pence-- even though I'd prefer about 99% of Democrats over him. I always want the GOP to pick the best candidate in the event the Democrat loses in the general.
    1 point
  14. It should say your Barnstorming power when you schedule the activity.
    1 point
  15. While to a much lesser degree (and only through excel spreadsheets), I've had to deal with a shade of this every time I've updated/improved the game I've been working on. The huge overhauls are certainly time-consuming and tedious.
    1 point
  16. That's interesting - not surprised.
    1 point
  17. No, but I will say that one of the things slowing things down is that the port involved moving >100K lines of code from C++ to C#. Now, I am working with multiple core parts of the game engine (Percentages class, Seats class, a new Polls class that is replacing the old Polls class). Sometimes, the code really needs to be rewritten how it should be in C# 8.0 (latest Unity compatible version) instead of C++ 1998 (yes, it was that bad with the old tools). This improves my understanding of what's happening with the code, and simply improves the code base. I just refactored the Seats class,
    1 point
  18. Replacing the Polling system is an extensive change requiring a lot of back-end changes, since the way %s were generated before was integrated with various parts of the game.
    1 point
  19. It's from Twitter. You can look at his last few posts from 6 hours ago. But I can copy+paste them all here for your info. I'm kind of getting tired of his analysis. He's becoming less insightful over time. I wonder if he's drinking or getting lazy or something. I find myself wishing more and more that he'd stop saying something bordering to clever. He seems to be on the verge of saying something, but then has a sort of hesitancy as if he's embarrassed to give any sort of decisive thought or opinion. Basically, I think he says a lot of things in an attempt to get others to finish his thoughts.
    1 point
  20. I think it's top 4 in Alaska, not top 2. This is what ballotpedia says. You rank the 4 candidates and whoever gets a majority (probably once it's down to 2), wins. In general elections, voters rank the four candidates that advanced from the primaries. A candidate needs a simple majority of the vote (50 percent + 1) to be declared the winner of an election. If no candidate wins a simple majority of votes cast, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated from the running. Voters who selected that candidate as their first choice have their votes redistributed to their second c
    1 point
  21. Depends. If Murkowski misses the runoff (which polls show now), she is done. Al Gross is a strong candidate to take that 2nd position. In this case, the ranked-choice voting would actually sink her. Should she make the runoff, I agree because Dems will attempt to vote her back in.
    1 point
  22. Would they really elect him as Speaker? He'd be switching committee members every other week.
    1 point
  23. I think this is the fundamental question. Would it help him in 2024? My guess is you're right, and his best tactic is to focus solely on helping in 2022 and then the Presidency in 2024.
    1 point
  24. I'm wondering if he would even win election to the US House? Which district will he be running in? Imagine he runs and then loses? Also, considering how unpopular Congress routinely is and Speakers are specifically, I doubt this will make Trump more likable or more electable. Assuming the GOP takes the House, it will be by a small margin and Dems might get enough GOP reps to not support Trump so that Pelosi or whomever is Speaker despite being the minority party. Would Kevin McCarthy even step aside for Trump? I also don't think Trump would be willing to go from Pres to US Re
    1 point
  25. It’s pretty disappointing to see the GOP revert to whining about spending and abortion again. Likely going to unaffiliate again after changing my registration in 2018. I can’t see myself voting for another Democrat anytime soon (though I do like some things about Yang), but it’s frustrating that the republicans are pretending 2015-2020 never happened and going back to Tea Party nonsense.
    1 point
  26. No, not really. I think Trump could have made the GOP make some inroads with urban voters, considering he's from NYC and is very much a big city person. However, he framed himself as a sort of small town hero not from Northeastern wealth establishment. I really don't see the GOP evolving much so long as the EC is in place. It might require them losing the PV in 2024 and 2028 or Texas flipping Blue. Democrats also don't have an incentive to evolve. They're the more popular party and have been since 1992 with Clinton (with only GW Bush winning the PV once in 2004). So they'll likely stay a
    1 point
  27. I think the platform changes for Republicans would make them more palatable. Currently they can win by catering to a minority--albeit a very vocal and politically active minority. I don't think the Democrats have to change much with an abolished EC unless Republicans start draining urban votes and minority votes. I think an updated Rockefeller Republican Party, one that is a little more populist and less military interventionist, would force Democrats to make some huge adjustments to their national platform, although I'm not sure what these adjustments would be. I'm not sure if they'd just go
    1 point
  28. This is basically my list for GW Bush too. My list for Trump is probably longer but less explosive. I'll type it out when I have time. I borrowed it from literary critic Harold Bloom, who used it in his book Genius to describe novelist Ernest Hemingway.
    1 point
  29. Deciding whether public polls will come in on a regular basis, with a random distribution, or both. I'm leaning toward keeping the regular weekly poll, and then adding in random ones in addition. For now, it's just private or public polls, and doesn't get more fine-grained than that. Both your private polls and public polls have a bias, which is seeded at the beginning of a game if specified by the campaign designer. The campaign designer can choose what the typical bias would be (if any). For example, he could say "Trump General -3", so if Trump is in the game, a bias value is randomly g
    1 point
  30. Yeah, yet another failed Trump venture. How embarrassing!
    1 point
  31. This closed just a month after being announced
    1 point
  32. Polls three years out are a waste of time. Trump was nowhere in 2013 polling. Obama wasn't even included in most 2005 polls.
    1 point
  33. I don't think it's 95% chance that he's running. I don't even think he thinks its 95% chance. I think it's 50% chance, and then he sees how the midterms go, and then it might be 95%. I still think Trump was an awful nominee in 2016. I think any other Republican would have defeated Hillary Clinton in the popular vote and the electoral college. You have to be pretty damn unlikable to lose a popularity contest to Hillary Clinton! Your last paragraph is so badly written that it is unclear exactly what you are saying, so I'll just ignore it. I'll even admit I like some things a
    1 point
  34. They would have made Rubio a creepy robot and Cruz the devil. We just need to accept Trump is the nominee, and without twitter I think he'll be in better shape. As said above, it will be a referendum on Biden but evermore so the progressive agenda that Trump tried to pitch in 2020 but people didn't buy. Well seeing Biden's policy, I think MANY swing voters will be having a different opinion in 4 years...
    1 point
  35. If it is what I think you are talking about, it was some sort of indicator of whether or not the economy was looking good or looking bad. It affected an incumbent president (possibly also the incumbent party).
    1 point
  36. Everyone predicted a Biden victory. The margin of victory was ridiculously off and they tried convincing everyone it was pointless to vote for Trump since he was doing so poorly before the election even happened. This is why no one takes people like Nate Silver seriously anymore. You can keep pretending that Trump isn't going to be the nominee. A lot can happen till 2024 and it's going to be a referendum on Biden's policies way more than anything about Trump tweeting or whatever.
    1 point
  37. People not wanting to accept election results they don't like is a story as old as democracy. It happens every time.
    1 point
  38. Why do you continue to talk about these polls that have been proven time and time again to be enormously off whenever Trump runs?
    1 point
  39. According to your analysis, and adjusting for YouGov's poll bias, you are looking at a little bit tighter of a race than 2020.
    1 point
  40. Rehashing a lost election is a major issue?
    1 point
  41. This should be standard lol *thumbs up*
    1 point
  42. Added an Auto Recreate button for Poll Creation. If set, once a poll is created your campaign will automatically start creating another poll with the same specs.
    1 point
  43. Which major issues was she undermining the party on?
    1 point
  44. 1 point
  45. For videos' making sake, I'm kinda conflicted on the possible decision lol Love to see progress! Release Date before 2024 here we come!
    1 point
  46. I wouldn't lump what happened to Liz Cheney into the cancel culture category. It was not simply a policy difference that caused her to removed. As a member of party leadership, you cannot be undermining the party on major issues (which she was actively doing). Though there were many more reasons why a person like her should not have been in that position in the first place (and Republicans arguably got worse by putting Stefanik in there).
    1 point
  47. That first poll with +-0 is the default first poll - that will change to +-3% once the feature is finalized, just want accurate numbers to start for now.
    1 point
  48. So I'm in the middle of editing my first YouTube video for P4E08. In editing it, I had an insight. While making modern videos for modern games is great and all, I think the older games deserve some YouTube video love. Videos on video games bring light to those unawares of the great games they've never seen before. I discovered Hearts of Iron 4 through a Drew Durnil video-which originally had brought me to his Civ 6/5 content. His HoI4 content eventually brought me to Victoria 2 and EU4 as well. So I'd argue making insanely-evolving P4E or P4E08, PM4E UK/Canada, PM4E ALberta etc.,
    1 point
  49. Ron Desantis from everything I've seen and read and when I met him seems to be Republicans best shot in 2024. He is Trump without such harsh rhetoric and hes much better and politicking than Trump was so maybe that will lead to more competency from him?
    1 point
  50. "I think Kavanaugh could be absolved if he was aiming for about any office other than Supreme Court Justice." Could be absolved of *what*? People making charges for the first time in a highly charged political confirmation process, with 0 credible evidence for any of the charges. The only seemingly credible one, which was given a hearing in front of the Senate committee, fell apart. Couldn't remember where the alleged incident happened, when it happened, couldn't be corroborated by the supposed witnesses, vast period of time between alleged incident and any public record of charges, not e
    1 point
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