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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/31/2020 in all areas

  1. OK, here are the margins in the final polling averages from fivethirtyeight (as I mentioned above) from 2016 with the current averages in fivethirtyeight. Margin in 2016, margin in 2020 and the change between them. All in Biden's direction except for SC. AZ: -1.7 for Clinton, +3.1 for Biden, 4.8 to Biden FL: +1.3 for Clinton, +2.1 for Biden, 0.8 to Biden GA: -3.7 for Clinton, +1.6 for Biden, 5.3 to Biden IA: -3.1 for Clinton, +0.1 for Biden, 3.2 to Biden MI: +4.1 for Clinton, +8.8 for Biden, 4.7 to Biden MN: +7.3 for Clinton, +8.9 for Biden, 1.6 to Biden MO: -10.3 fo
    3 points
  2. It’s like voodoo, I’m sure he’s remembering to shout it into his mirror 500 times whilst sobbing and chugging Vodka Crans.
    2 points
  3. One promotes the science, one laughs at it. That’s the difference, on the COVID front. Yep, Presidents aren’t going to be the scientists who cure the disease, or the soldiers who win the war, or the economists who pull us back from financial collapse, etc. But they do choose who to listen to, and what to do with that information. Biden listens to the experts. Trump listens to the sycophants.
    2 points
  4. Oregon Blue too. Trump will have 84.16% Biden result with the same economical conditions said before. Scenario for now with optimistic economy.
    2 points
  5. I think its likely a touch closer than that, because people that vote early are less likely to answer the polls now theyve already voted. However, the DMR is a very good pollster, so its probably fairly accurate.
    1 point
  6. Latest DMR IA poll, Trump 48-Biden 41. From Trump 47-Biden 47 in Sep. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/
    1 point
  7. Actinguy said Happy Halloween on this issue. The innocuous north west is much less scary than Utah. I will contribute 2IP and send this to congress
    1 point
  8. Thanks. Thats all I wanted clarified. I doubt either campaigns top of ticket (or VPs) will be there before its done.
    1 point
  9. You haven't shown it's misleading at all, much less very misleading. The source for the comment was a tweet by someone claiming that was the case, your article corroborates that it's at least partially true, there's no evidence I've seen yet that suggests it's false. Happy to be corrected.
    1 point
  10. Was the Middle East stable before we got there?
    1 point
  11. Nice stuff, interesting work for sure. Keep it up
    1 point
  12. Neither Wisconsin or Michigan report party affiliations with the returned ballots. Only certain states declare party affiliation alongside returned totals. I have seen people using TargetSmart for modeled data, but I would be wary about taking anything found there too seriously considering that it is modeled data after all. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
    1 point
  13. This kind of reminds me of old footage from the Zimbabwean 2008 election (I can't remember if it was Presidential or Parliamentary) where Movement for Democratic Change (the biggest opposition party in Zimbabwe) leader Morgan Tsvangirai was heckled at three consecutive campaign stops by Pro-Mugabe, Pro-ZANU-PF crowds, and the Zimbabwean Police stood there and made no action, even jeering Tsvangirai his MDC campaign staff, and when a formal, written report was made later, Tsvangirai and the MDC were actually slapped with a fine for "causing a disturbance." Is this the path of U.S. election cond
    1 point
  14. @Actinguy spreadsheet updated with hand of time deaths and new office appointments Ready for next issue Mr. President? @vcczar
    1 point
  15. A quick google suggests it might have been this event in Columbus, Oct 2016. Officially 18,500 though the report I read said some thought it was only 10,000.
    1 point
  16. Pretty clearly a personal attack. You have a break until tomorrow. Please rethink your approach to the forum.
    1 point
  17. No, easy to add back in. We'l see.
    1 point
  18. It's about doing things the right way @Actinguy! Not just voting to for your own personal gain!
    1 point
  19. My thoughts are organized a long the lines that most Democrats have already cast votes via mail-in, which I think is a safe assumption to make. Data I have seen seems to indicate that mail-in is the preferred Democrat method of voting, while in-person seems to be preferred by Republicans.
    1 point
  20. I used to live in Florida at one point in time, and still travel there fairly frequently, I feel 99.99% certain that Trump will win the state. The early vote totals are definitely within the range that his campaign would like for them to be, and I expect a large GOP advantage when it comes to the Election Day votes (I'm thinking along the lines of 65-35% in favour of Trump). Obviously, a large number of people have already cast their votes, however, I think that the margin will be large enough to pull Trump ahead (especially considering that most Democrat voters (or ones that lean D) have pr
    1 point
  21. Those stupid icons. I only woke up recently, haven't had a coffee yet, saw the big "A," making a post like that, and thought it was @admin_270. That's quite embarassing...
    1 point
  22. GUESS WHO'S BACK! BACK AGAIN! SHADY'S BACK! TELL A FRIEND! ROLLS AND POLLS TONIGHT BOYS! UNLIMITEDDD POWERR IS BACK!
    1 point
  23. Just because you keep posting it multiple times doesn't automatically make it true.
    1 point
  24. We will have a very good idea on whos ahead in FL, NC, and MN on election night because they have been able to count ballots. Thirsdays Minnesota extentsion to accept absentee or mail in ballots which there is a big difference in this state was overturned so we have to have your ballot by 8 pm election night. Horrible for all us counting because at least where I work we were okay with being able to count wednesday till the following tuesday which not we have to get all our absentee and mail in ballots(15 ish thousand) counted by election night. If Trump matches '16 in percent then its a toss u
    1 point
  25. I wish my county had an interesting electoral history. Ashland has gone GOP in every election since 1940 (one exception, 1964) However we were a bellwether county from 1912 to 1936 lol
    1 point
  26. Landslide @admin_270 @Conservative Elector 2
    1 point
  27. Only Buchanan and A. Johnson were worse and neither of them chose to seek a second term. So Trump goes down as the worst in this cstegory.
    1 point
  28. An excellent choice of movie on the brink of a U.S. Presidential Election!
    1 point
  29. If Trump wins, we won't know until at least midday Wednesday, as Florida is the only key state that we'll know for sure on election night most likely.
    1 point
  30. Yea, I'm about 60% sure Trump wins the election "fairly", and 90% sure that if Biden wins, a significant portion of votes will be invalidated which will hand the election to Trump.
    1 point
  31. I’m honestly not nearly as worried about any shenanigans as y’all are. The support for overturning an election just isn’t there. If Trump loses by a non-contestable margin then he’ll just sit in office for the last 3 months and drop Bombs for Biden and set up his next phase in life.
    1 point
  32. Montgomery County in Ohio could be interesting. Most of the population lives in the Democrat city of Dayton, but the number one employer is the military base, and a disproportionate number of the residents are Veterans who were stationed at the base, got out of the military, and stayed in the area. It went to Trump in 2016 -- but that was the first Republican to win the county since George HW Bush in 1988....despite the fact that Kasich (the anti-Trump Governor of Ohio at the time) had won the 2016 primary here. 2016 turnout for the general election was 70.3% of registered voters. Als
    1 point
  33. I'm 60% Biden wins the electoral vote -- but about 80% sure Trump wins the bullshit he'll pull after the election.
    1 point
  34. Not necessarily if he won WI, MI, and PA. But I think it's on the positive side of things (Florida is looking good for Trump, so they're focusing on tighter races).
    1 point
  35. That's enough to guarantee passage no matter what @Actinguy
    1 point
  36. That's Michigan, not Missouri.
    1 point
  37. That's so weird that the states likely to decide this election dont have any bellwether counties. I've done a little bit of research but cant find anyone notable who's campaigned for Trump like Biden has. Am I missing something?
    1 point
  38. 1 point
  39. Also these bellwether counties aren't for predicting which way the state will go, it's for predicting the actual election. I should have clarified that. But I also do agree that it's important to analyze bellwether counties that are in swing states too!
    1 point
  40. Yeah good point, I should also track some swing-state bellwethers. I will now also be tracking: Sawyer County, Wisconsin - Perfect bellwether since 1964 (Republican congressional district) Coos County, New Hampshire - Only two misses since 1892 (Republican commissioners, Democratic court) Hillsborough County, Florida - Two misses since 1924, though I won't be following this one as much since it leans heavily Democrat now, though it did vote for Marco Rubio in 2016. Wikipedia says it stopped being a bellwether in 2012 but I'll still follow it. (3/2 county gov party split, wi
    1 point
  41. Awesome, let me know when you have the entire map filled in.
    1 point
  42. Yeah, the polls aren't tightening (and there's more polling of the battleground states going on, that it should be more likely for them to detect a shift if there is one).
    1 point
  43. Yeah, I'll be posting updates on Election Day while looking at the key counties I'm watching. The only issue with these counties is that they're in states that are pretty predictable. However, they may be important in determining a national vote landslide. Very good post though!
    1 point
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