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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/03/2020 in all areas

  1. With 2 months to go, it's time to update my election prediction. As some of you know, I have said for the last while I think it's 80% Trump (my evaluation is Trump is 80% likely to win the election given the information available at this time), and that I expect this number to go to 0 or 100 as we get closer to the election. I do not intend to predict 50-50, for that isn't a prediction at all - it's a non-prediction. My new prediction is 80% -> 85% Trump. This is based on many criteria. Most basically, it's based on my evaluation of the personalities and abilities of the two
    4 points
  2. I think that Biden made a large mistake in boxing himself into a female VP firstly, and a second blunder in limiting it to an African American (which Kamala Harris is not even). The Democratic Party is never going to learn that running an identity politics campaign is a losing playbook. I see no self reflection from since 2016 at all.
    2 points
  3. Well this is why I stopped making Australian scenarios but in seriousness, Breitbart is a yikes in my book. I wouldn't be one to cite in a paper
    2 points
  4. I have nothing against Singh personally, just don't think that he is going to help the NDP pick up seats any time soon. My only criticism of him is that he plays the race card way too much, and tries to bring American issues into the Canadian political sphere (although the Liberals love to do that as well when it comes to demonizing the Tories). I doubt that anyone will ever be able to fill Layton's shoes fully, he took the NDP to unforeseen heights. The NDP are in a very tough position right now : they don't have the funds for an election, and are being pressured by Trudeau into a lose
    1 point
  5. As a better myself the only time I've seen jumps this big are after big trades or a key player getting hurt or something.
    1 point
  6. While the polls are swinging slightly Trump, I strongly agree with your point on the betting odds... crazy looking at how Trump or well, the people betting literally erased what? A 70-30 lead for Biden in 2 weeks or so?
    1 point
  7. Yeah, that’s mainly 2016 PTSD. If the didn’t make sense results of 2016 never had happened, I’d give Trump’s chances as 10% now.
    1 point
  8. Yeah, but I’m not sure how much of it is just standard post-convention tightening and how much of it reflects Covid restrictions loosening and etc. I think Trump loses the “Are you better off than you were 4 years” ago question, whether it’s his fault or Covids fault. So I think the economic point you make is the weakest, especially when you factor in that many Americans that are now reemployed are making less and/or working less. This might not matter so much outside of the cities. Most Americans live in cities though. As far as baseline, I’d move his chances from 35% to 40%.
    1 point
  9. I wouldn't read too much into the tightening polls. The polls always tighten after the conventions.
    1 point
  10. Watched some clips of it, similar to how much I watched of Trump's acceptance speech.
    1 point
  11. I appreciate the update, even if I disagree with the analysis somewhat. I do think you are correct in your points, I just disagree that Trump's chances of reelection have been or are 80% or 85%. I don't think he's been at 50% since about January. If he can get the economy back to January's numbers I think he's got a better chance than Biden, perhaps. I think that is unlikely however. The last three incumbents to be trailing at this point in an election lost (Bush I, Carter, Ford). The last incumbent to be trailing at this point and win is Truman. Covid might make this election too new fo
    1 point
  12. Agreed with the admin. Singh was relatively likeable, even if you didn't like his policies. He saved the NDP from perhaps losing the "third party" status to the Greens. He could maybe peel off more Liberal voters in the next round by hammering them on their relative scandals.
    1 point
  13. It's tough filling the shoes of Jack Layton. On a persona level, I liked Singh the most of the 5 major party leaders in the 2019 election (with May being last). Might like O'Toole more than him now - we'll see.
    1 point
  14. And yet she grew up a black woman in a segregated America....
    1 point
  15. 1 point
  16. @admin_270 @Patine do blacks up north call themselves African american or african Canadian? Or just black?
    1 point
  17. Reading over your comment again, I think I know where we may have a misunderstanding. In actual usage, African-"American" refers to the United States, while your definition refers to the Americas as a whole (a region). I understand your point now, but will argue that she still is not a de facto African-American. No one in the Caribbean region refers to themselves as such, and you would be hard pressed to find someone who identifies with the nomenclature in Jamaica. It is an American term (as in the United States) alone. To be quite honest, she would not even be considered black in thi
    1 point
  18. Caribbean black and American black cultures are completely separate from one another. No one in the Caribbean identifies themselves as African-American, it is a term used in the States only from what I have seen. If you say that you are African-American in the Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad, Haiti, etc. you will probably get laughed at. In my mind, African American is a term used to denote an American black person vs one of another origion. Caribbean, African etc. I have never seen it used outside of the States in my life to be quite honest with you.
    1 point
  19. Bear in mind that this is all anecdotal, but I have never seen so many black men around me come out in open support of the Republican Party. I know a few that were staunch Obama supporters that claim to be voting Trump this go around. Take it for what it is worth, being anecdotal evidence in all, but I do think that he is going to poll higher among African-Americans (particularly the men) than any Republican candidate in a while. Not quite sure where to put my thumb on why, but I have seen support from individuals that I wouldn't expect in 2016, 2012, 2008, etc. We will see soon I gu
    1 point
  20. I personally do believe that Trump will get at least 15% of the black vote in the upcoming election, I have personally seen quite a few come out in support lately. I do think that the Democrats are in serious danger of losing the election if they do not retain control over this portion of their base. Needless to say, Biden's constant gaffe's regarding the black community certainly is not helping his case. Regarding Kamala Harris, I do think she was a horrible pick for the Biden campaign. It is important to note that African-American black and Caribbean black are two separate and comple
    1 point
  21. I know a few black men that have a problem with her having a white husband. That is still largely frowned upon in black culture.
    1 point
  22. 2016 was definitely biased in favor of the Dems but this is pretty well rounded and fair
    1 point
  23. There are so many things wrong with this article, I can smell the bias through the screen, What is wrong about this article is that somehow the doctors and nurses are the ones fudging results for more "money", In reality, it would be the hospitals, the health care providers, So I think this article is extremely deceiving in trying to get the reader to think that someone the doctors and the nurses are behind this, Additionally, I fully agree with Senator Ernst's statement, I am indeed curious, This isn't a stupid conspiracy theory, this is something that must be genuinely looked into
    1 point
  24. I can't fault her for thinking that. There are many accusations and testimonies of that Happening here in my Country. Though I know it's dangerous territory to be announcing this. It might cause a distrust of Doctors overall (which is majority good people). But an investigation is warranted. At least where I'm from it is, because the Public Insurance pays for Covid Bills and it's projected (the budget) to only last till 2021 - 2022.
    1 point
  25. November 3rd, 2020 Popular Vote: 54% Turnout - 139,562,069 votes Donald Trump - 65,636,041 votes (47.03%) Elizabeth Warren - 63,584,479 votes (45.56%) Stephanie Kelton - 8,206,250 votes(5.88%) Jo Jorgenson - 1,577,051 votes (1.13%) Others - 558,248 votes (0.40%) Electoral College: Donald Trump - 323 Electoral Votes Elizabeth Warren - 215 Electoral votes It would ultimately be Warren's weakness among blue collar workers during a period of strong economic growth as well as Kelton's cradle-snatching in the form of weakening Warren's bas
    1 point
  26. Thanks for this feedback - noted.
    1 point
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