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  2. Yeah, one reason why I think Madison's presidency is wildly overrated.
  3. That's why it's best to use a sampling of all kinds of polls. To make artificial boundaries is a little suspicious, particularly when it seems 538 is factoring out GOP-leaning pollsters while keeping Dem-leaning ones in. Even if they're less quality in the polling world, doesn't mean that they're missing something.
  4. His call out of RCP is strange because they are more accurate than he is. He dismisses them because they use crappy polls like Rassmussen. However if you look at more reliable polls they are showing that swing states like PA are now within the margain of error.
  5. Yeah. Could also be trying to get rid of complacency on the left as well. Young voters are also the safest from COVID, so it's possible that could also factor in.
  6. Yes. Too many unknowns. Most interesting to me is claim Dems "circulating anxiety-ridden memos" (could be exaggeration, who knows) and 2. Youth vote down. But correct. Take with big grain of salt.
  7. This is true. The early 1800's was, actually, a time period in the U.S. where citizens taking up arms and rebelling against the Federal Government more openly than raucus protests, cowardly mass shootings, and blowing up Federal buildings, but actually standard, orthodox REBELLIONS, were actually a very real danger of happening...
  8. I'm confused over where that's coming from https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/two-weeks-till-election-day-democrats-have-big-lead-early-n1243991 From NBC, what they've tallied so far the GOP is ahead in TX, yes, but MI looks roughly even, so does WI, and PA is vastly led by the Dems. From what I've read, TX GOP has pushed mail in ballots as well as the TX Dems, so that could end up being closer both in the mail-ins and election day count than some other states, where it'll tilt in either direction. You have said yourself not to read into early vote totals, because b
  9. My convictions would not let me sell out to such a repugnant party, even with the overwhelming success they were commanding. But true political convictions are somewhat of a weak point in American politics - which is ironic for a political system that is also highly polarized and abhorring compromise.
  10. While I would likely be a Federalist, by this point I feel like the Feds were so dead that the only hope would be to be a D-R. Not sure though.
  11. One of the stupidest wars (at least before the post-WW2 era, when wars starting becoming stupid in general) fought by either the United States or the United Kingdom - and neither got anything for it in the end. An utter embarrassment for any hawkish politician or military commander involved on either side.
  12. Damn, too lazy to check his source but this is really surprising. Also I vaguely remember checking back a while ago that there were more registered Republicans than Democrats in Michigan as well. (Though it doesn't really mean anything considering Kentucky's had more registered democrats for decades)
  13. Accurate at what? 2018 Congressional elections? Yes. 2016 Presidential election? No. Better than most left-leaning prognosticators? Yes. Accurate? No.
  14. vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W You are a US Senator and it is June 17, 1812. You are about to vote on a Declaration of War against Great Br
  15. I think he's pretty accurate. He was actually one of the first people to criticize the Democrats supposed "blue wall" in the rust belt states, and that was in 2015 before Trump was even the nominee.
  16. Today
  17. We have the same prediction except I think there will be a blue Nevada and Pennsylvania.
  18. Trump now within the margin of error in PA
  19. "Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI" Corroborates other things I've been reading. Youth vote down in early voting.
  20. @admin_270 Phew. No exclamation points this time. Okay, I'm going in! This cost me about $80. If it hits, I'll win $1,598. Big money, big money, big money....STOP! ;c)
  21. Minnesota is usually a little more Democratic than Wisconsin - I would be surprised if Trump managed to win MN while losing WI.
  22. Crap. Changing it again, then. Democrats 30-59? ;c)
  23. Maybe Biden's strategy is more to build a solid blue wall than to aim for a "big" win along the lines of, say, 315+ EVs. Which makes some sense - *if* they're confident that vote suppression and partisan court rulings won't somehow convert the blue wall states into wins for Trump. But perhaps they think they have a chance at winning all the blue wall states by enough of a margin that lawsuits, recounts, etc. can't reverse the outcome in any of them.
  24. My ceiling for Trump: My actual prediction right now:
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