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The 2008 Primaries Coverage and Prediction Thread


Jayavarman

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My predictions for Iowa:

Dems-

Obama

Edwards

Clinton

Biden or Richardson?

GOP-

Huckabee

Romney

McCain

Paul, Thompson, or Guiliani?

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Follow-Up to New Hampshire and points:

If Thompson does not place a strong third, he will drop out and endorse McCain. If Romney gets beaten and McCain places a strong third, McCain will easily beat Romney in New Hampshire if not closely. With a strong win in Iowa, Huckabee will place a strong third in NH, even being competitive for second.

Spoiler: Ron Paul may pull an upset third or fourth in New Hampshire, even in Iowa. Media hates him, so it will be funny.

Hard to extrapolate beyond NH, but my ultimate prediction is a McCain-Huckabee fight for the nomination. Guiliani will fizzle while trying his month-long wait for delegates.

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Those second choice endorsements are irrelevant. People are not sheep. If you read the progressive blogosphere, Kucinich supporters were pissed that Dennis told them to vote for Obama.

MY PREDICTIONS:

Democrats:

Edwards

Obama

Clinton

Biden

Richardson

Dodd

Kucinich

Gravel

Republicans:

Romney

Huckabee

McCain

Thompson

Paul

Giuliani

Hunter

Keyes

That Illinois Businessman

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Those second choice endorsements are irrelevant. People are not sheep. If you read the progressive blogosphere, Kucinich supporters were pissed that Dennis told them to vote for Obama.

Like in leadership conventions here, the smaller the group, the more powerful the endorsement, because they're the most loyal to the leader, rather than media horseraces.

I'd say the blogosphere is more irrelevant than that...just people who want to get angry over every little thing.

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Also the campaigns keep denying any formal arrangements. I get the feeling it's last minute dirty tricks, Obama trying to psych out Clinton.

My predictions-

Edwards

Obama

Clinton

Biden

Richardson

Dodd

Kucinich

Gravel

Huckabee

Romney

Paul

McCain

Thompson

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On to New Hampshire.

New Hampshire hard to predict. I would like to wait for at least some initial post-Iowa reports out of New Hampshire, but here are my predictions:

Democrats

----

Obama

Clinton

Edwards

Richardson

Republicans

----

McCain

Huckabee

Romney

Paul

Guiliani

Thompson

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New Hampshire: Democrats

Clinton

Obama (nearly tied for first, becomes the official "anti-hillary")

Edwards (Distant third...loses momentum, drops out within a week or so)

Richardson (sticks around until Nevada, at least)

Kucinich (If he doesn't drop out "before" the primaries, he'll certainly drop out afterwards)

Republicans:

McCain

Romney (Sticks around past Feb 5th...he has the money, why not?)

Guiliani (Shocks with a third place appearance, boosts his viability considerably)

Huckabee (Stays around at least till South Carolina)

Thompson (Should drop out...but will probably see South Carolina)

Paul (Sticks around to Feb 5th. Has the money...inexplicably.)

Other random predictions:

Unless Hillary is 70% sure she will win almost all of Feb 5th...she'll drop out a day or two before. Better to look like she's backing Obama than look like Obama kicked her ass.

Huckabee's evangelical support will not be enough...nomination comes down to Romney, McCain, or Guiliani. Facing Obama in the main event, Republicans will eventually unite behind Guliani.

Obama chooses a VP with experience...maybe Biden. Guiliani almost HAS to pick Huckabee...maybe Brownback, but Huckabee makes the most sense.

Obama gets the majority of the independent vote due to his charisma and lack of ties to the Iraq war, becoming the first black President.

(Fun alternate universe consideration: Clinton gets the nomination. Snubs Obama...maybe picks Richardson as VP. Most viable Republican against Clinton is McCain...who takes Obama as his Vice President pick, knowing he won't lose any conservatives no matter who he picks, since they won't vote for Clinton. Obama adds a ton of charisma, likeability, hope, and independent votes to McCain, who wins the nomination. McCain dies in office of natural causes, Obama becomes first black President.)

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Wyoming goes to Romney.

New Hampshire picks:

Romney (gotta stick with him, but this is a must-win)

McCain

Paul (shock of the primaries thusfar)

Huckabee

Giuliani

F. Thompson (drops out)

Obama

Clinton

Edwards

Richardson

Kucinich

South Carolina picks:

McCain (with Thompson endorsement)

Huckabee

Romney

Giuliani

Paul

Obama

Edwards

Clinton (losing steam...)

Nevada goes to McCain, Michigan to Romney.

Can't make the calls for "Tsunami Tuesday" yet.

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Huckabee's evangelical support will not be enough...nomination comes down to Romney, McCain, or Guiliani.

And what support do the other candidates have "enough" of? Do not underestimate Huckabee in New Hampshire and beyond like everybody did for Iowa. The young and charismatic Huckabee taps into deep populist sentiment and can harness the same energy that Obama is riding.

Huckabee has spent little money and time in New Hampshire, if any up till now. With his Iowa momentum, positive media attention, likely strong performance in the debates this weekend, and being outside the Romney-McCain mudslinging, Huckabee will attract more New Hampshire voters than the "experts" will expect.

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And what support do the other candidates have "enough" of? Do not underestimate Huckabee in New Hampshire and beyond like everybody did for Iowa. The young and charismatic Huckabee taps into deep populist sentiment and can harness the same energy that Obama is riding.

Huckabee has spent little money and time in New Hampshire, if any up till now. With his Iowa momentum, positive media attention, likely strong performance in the debates this weekend, and being outside the Romney-McCain mudslinging, Huckabee will attract more New Hampshire voters than the "experts" will expect.

You're right...Huckabee taps into the deep populist sentiment that Obama is riding...but that's just it. There's only so much of that to go around, and Obama's going to take the majority. I watched the Iowa caucuses live, flipping between every channel...and everyone (even Fox) was going on and on about Obama and barely mentioning Huckabee.

Obama and Huckabee both excite people...but Obama is the more exciting of the two, if you're not a self-described evangelical. And, again, there's only so many of THOSE to go around. And they're likely to vote for whoever is the Republican candidate anyhow.

So those who are just looking for excitement are going to go for Obama. This kills any support Huckabee has outside the church. Romney should be the obvious choice in Huckabee's wake...but he's been going negative for so long that his unfavorables have to b higher than Clinton's by now.

In my mind, Thompson and Paul will never get another supporter that they don't already have...which leaves Guiliani or McCain. It could be McCain of course, but I think the republican party will see Obama will destroy him in debates...McCain has the experience, it's true, but he's so bad in debates that most won't see that. Guilani can hold his own in a debate, which is why I think he'll the eventual nominee (although Obama will destroy him too.)

As I said...this is all assuming Obama gets the nomination. If it turns out that it's Clinton, McCain is the clear choice for Republicans. And, for the record, I think it's a Clinton-Romney matchup that Bloomberg is waiting to jump in on.

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NH Prediction:

DEMS:

Obama

Clinton

Edwards

Richardson

Gravel

REPUBLICANS:

McCain

Romney

Huckabee

Paul

Giuliani

Thompson

Hunter

After this, Romney will lose embarrassingly to Huckabee or McCain in Michigan and will have to drop out of the race. From there on it's unpredictable... but my guess is that Huckabee, and McCain are the most likely with a possible Giuliani comeback later on.

Obama will go on to win Nevada and South Carolina, then Florida and will be then declared the assumed frontrunner as SuperDuperTuesday approaches.

But I'm no expert so we'll see.

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GOP Predictions:

McCain 38%

Romney 31%

Huckabee 12%

Paul 10%

Giuliani 7%

Thompson 1.7%

Hunter .3%

Huh. Well, I wasn't THAT far off.

Final Results seem to be:

McCain 37%

Romney 32%

Huckabee 11%

Giuliani 9%

Paul 8%

Write-Ins 2%

Thompson 1%

Hunter 1%

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Problem for Huckabee is this; the GOP cabal didn't like him before he slammed them but now he's basically said they've used the Evangelicals and delivered nothing to them and that message is ringing true with the voters, they seem to have mobilised behind McCain or Romney because, at the very least, they are pro-business and anti-tax. I see Huckabee as all downhill from here for that fact.

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