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I will adjust the electoral college of course, and we may have an idea who the candidates are but many things will be undeceided. Based on the last elections, regionalism is growing, the states of Nevada and Colorado have trended Democrat and New Jersey and Florida Republican. Arizona seems to be securely Republican now.

West Virginia, Louisina, and Arkansas I believe can be toss ups, if the canidates arent yuppies.

Of course this should all change by 2012, because the Republicans may start running easterners and the Democrats southerners. Given that,

What do you all think will be the big issues, who will be running, and what states will be different than they are now.

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I will adjust the electoral college of course, and we may have an idea who the candidates are but many things will be undeceided. Based on the last elections, regionalism is growing, the states of Nevada and Colorado have trended Democrat and New Jersey and Florida Republican.  Arizona seems to be securely Republican now. 

West Virginia, Louisina, and Arkansas I believe can be toss ups, if the canidates arent yuppies.

Of course this should all change by 2012, because the Republicans may start running easterners and the Democrats southerners. Given that,

What do you all think will be the big issues, who will be running, and what states will be different than they are now.

The war on terror could still be an issue....

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It's hard to tell which states will trend which way because Clinton screwed everything up - Florida wasn't even close to being a swing state until Clinton brought it into the fold.

But your guesses will be as valid as anyone else's, so go for it!

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Only if a Democrat is elected in 2008!  ;)

I was thinking Iran nukes us in spring 06, we realize we made a mistake, nuke them, cause them to nuke israel, pakistan nukes india, we nuke pakistan, egypt, syria, jordan, and lebaon are nuked by israel, russia and china releas their stuff. we invade N korea, france, and canada, Asia destroyed, we pull troops out and we just take over.

http://funnyjunk.com/pages/world.htm

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I was thinking Iran nukes us in spring 06, we realize we made a mistake, nuke them, cause them to nuke israel, pakistan nukes india, we nuke pakistan, egypt, syria, jordan, and lebaon are nuked by israel, russia and china releas their stuff. we invade N korea, france, and canada, Asia destroyed, we pull troops out and we just take over.

http://funnyjunk.com/pages/world.htm

Thats great stuff! :lol: I've seen it before but its a classic! :D

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I don't think NJ is trending Republican and I don't think Arkansas is a toss up anymore. Arkansas is definetly becoming more solidly Republican and NJ, due to its high level urban & minority population, will remain strongly in the Democrat camp. It may not be as solidly Democratic as the rest of New England, but its still far from trending Republican.

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I don't think NJ is trending Republican

As a Republican from New Jersey and one who would like to see NJ move more to the right...I have to agree. New Jersey would likely move to the right if the New Jersey Republicans weren't such a bunch of pathetic losers. I mean they're so far to the national GOP's left that its almost like we have two Democratic parties in Jersey.

But in any case, its hard to tell where the electorate is moving because its so polarized these days. It will largely depend on two factors IMHO:

1) How successful the rest of Bush's term is

2) Which faction of the Democratic Party (moderates or lefties) win their upcoming primary battles and infighting

I think if the moderate Dems triumph over their brethren and Bush fails the Democrats could become the majority for a while. However, I doubt that the moderates would win as the Democrats are firmly married to their leftist ideology (as much as we Republicans are to ours). And my hopes for Bush's second term aren't that bright either...so I think we'll see more bitter division and gridlock.

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As a Republican from New Jersey and one who would like to see NJ move more to the right...I have to agree. New Jersey would likely move to the right if the New Jersey Republicans weren't such a bunch of pathetic losers. I mean they're so far to the national GOP's left that its almost like we have two Democratic parties in Jersey.

But in any case, its hard to tell where the electorate is moving because its so polarized these days. It will largely depend on two factors IMHO:

1) How successful the rest of Bush's term is

2) Which faction of the Democratic Party (moderates or lefties) win their upcoming primary battles and infighting

I think if the moderate Dems triumph over their brethren and Bush fails the Democrats could become the majority for a while. However, I doubt that the moderates would win as the Democrats are firmly married to their leftist ideology (as much as we Republicans are to ours). And my hopes for Bush's second term aren't that bright either...so I think we'll see more bitter division and gridlock.

I agree with ya there. Although, if Bayh or Edwards (both moderates in my opinion) can actually gain some territory early in the primaries, we democrats may just pull it off.

The opposite, though, is also true. If the republicans can find a moderate (McCain, Specter, Whitman) to take the nomination, then it would work for them too.

For '08 however I see a democratic win, mainly because I see Katrina and Iraq coming to bite Bush in his arse. 2012 could go either way, depending on the next election.

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For new issues, maybe something like disaster prevention.

Well here is my explanaition for Arkansas and New Jersey, Torchelli and whats his name the governor have seemed to piss some voters off in NJ even though, it is still solidly Democrat. If you look at the different between 2004 and 2000 the Democrats lost something like 9 points. I believe Arkansas is a toss up for another reason. When the Dems run northerners they always lose (unless you conisder Gore a Southerner), when they run Southerners they win Arkansas. In fact all but one of Arkansas' congressmen inlcuding their senators are Democrats. In addition Arkansas was theonly place Democrats made gains in 02' I believe. So I believe if a moderate Southern Democrat ran, he would have a great shot at winning. Arkansas is funny in that it can go eigther way but the election is never close.

I think Ill start some onlne polls seeing what you guys feel about how states will go, or what issues will be important

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There's nothing to back this up whatsoever but my gut does tel meby then there will be form of 3rd party movement of Perot calliber. My guess would be it would be a populist type of movement like ventura rather than a radical one. Any idea who it would be?

As for issues, I really think this disaster thing is going to be a new goal of America for quite some time, 2012 is a long time of course though. I would tend to believe Iraq will be over for the most part before than, or at least in the top priority of voters. I have to also believe that debt is going to play out in some form. Whether it be inflation, or if one of the nations we borrow from demands that we make payments immediately.

What do you guys seeing happening to the Great Lakes region plus Iowa? Places like WI, IO, MN and MI used to be Democratic strongholds, now they are razor thin victories, but somehow always end up winning minus Coleman in MN.

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I think Immigration will be a huge issue for the forseeable future.

Agreed. Throw in the whole "terrorists could sneak through" factor, and it becomes an even bigger one. I really don't see it as enough of a force to start its own party though.

I see Michigan and Minnesota staying democratic, but I think Wisconsin and Iowa will end up as toss-up states. Out of the two though, I see Wisconsin leaning more to the left than Iowa.

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There's nothing to back this up whatsoever but my gut does tel meby then there will be form of 3rd party movement of Perot calliber.  My guess would be it would be a populist type of movement like ventura rather than a radical one.  Any idea who it would be?

As for issues, I really think this disaster thing is going to be a new goal of America for quite some time, 2012 is a long time of course though.  I would tend to believe Iraq will be over for the most part before than, or at least in the top priority of voters.  I have to also believe that debt is going to play out in some form.  Whether it be inflation, or if one of the nations we borrow from demands that we make payments immediately. 

What do you guys seeing happening to the Great Lakes region plus Iowa?  Places like WI, IO, MN and MI used to be Democratic strongholds, now they are razor thin victories, but somehow always end up winning minus Coleman in MN.

Maybe another small billionaire, maybe Chuck Hagel starts a party like Perot after a strong showing in 2008...

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There's nothing to back this up whatsoever but my gut does tel meby then there will be form of 3rd party movement of Perot calliber.  My guess would be it would be a populist type of movement like ventura rather than a radical one.  Any idea who it would be?

I think there are two ways that we could get a strong 3rd party candidate:

On the republican side, if Rudy Guliani or someone very pro-choice like him were somehow to get the Republican nomination, I think it would likely split the Republican party.

On the Democratic side, if Hilary runs as a moderate and loses, I think the far left might split from the party.

As for issues, I really think this disaster thing is going to be a new goal of America for quite some time, 2012 is a long time of course though.  I would tend to believe Iraq will be over for the most part before than, or at least in the top priority of voters.  I have to also believe that debt is going to play out in some form.  Whether it be inflation, or if one of the nations we borrow from demands that we make payments immediately.

I don't think disaster planning will be a major issue past 2006, maybe 2008, simply because they don't tend to happen that often.

Debt will likely be a big issue as well, but there is no danger of a country demanding immediate payments - the way we finance the debt is by issuing government bonds that are worth a specified amount after a specified time. The real issue with debt is that some nations are starting to get a little wary of continued investment in the U.S., especially due to the weak dollar. As debt becomes more expensive to extend, politicians may have to start making some tough choices.

What do you guys seeing happening to the Great Lakes region plus Iowa?  Places like WI, IO, MN and MI used to be Democratic strongholds, now they are razor thin victories, but somehow always end up winning minus Coleman in MN.

MI actually used to be a swing state. I expect it to continue to remain a leans (rather strongly) Democrat state. I think that WI, IO, and MN though will likely be GOP states by then. If social issues remain the top issues, these states are socially generaly more intune with the GOP (helped by the Republicans become more and more willing to have a big gov't). However, Democratic losses here will probably be offset somewhat by states like Virginia and Colorado becoming a swing states.

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I didnt think about Virginia, but that is becoming more liberal as it becomes more diverse.

I wonder about Immigration being an issue, it certainly will be a huge one in California and Texas, but in many swing states it's rather mute. Of course Republicans like Pete Wilson could always turn California into a swing state by making immigration a big issue.

As for disaster prevention or protection I think if say Kerry made it a part of his campaign in 2004 it would have resonated with Floridians that were hit by four hurricanes. By 2012 I'm sure california will have an earthquake by then, so I the potential is there, but politicains jsut havent made it a big part of their platforms. I think Katrina may change that, and once it gets the ball rolling, everyone will have to show theyre "tough on hurricanes" or earthquakes or tsunamis or whatever the scare of the minute is.

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As for disaster prevention or protection i think if say Kerry made it a part of his campaign in 2004 it would have resonated with Floridians that were hit by four hurricanes. 

I don't really think it would have made all that much of a difference; I mean, its not like Bush is against disaster relief, and since Katrina had not yet happen, he could probably make an argument that he was better at it than Kerry, since he had responded to 9-11, and had responded to natural disasters in Texas while governor.

What Kerry needed to do to win was not try to walk the tightrope between the far left "get out of Iraq immediately" and the more reasonable "Let's finish the job, even if Bush is an idiot." He did eventually try to establish himself in the latter, but not until getting himself labeled as a waffler, which such phrases as "I actually opposed the war before I voted for it."

Also, though California may have an Earthquake, the odds of a devastating Earthquake is quite slim. Nothing devastating enough to even be compared to Katrina as happened since the 1906 EQ in San Fran, and the 1900 hurricane that destroyed Galveston (an event which eventually made the minor city of Houston the largest city in Texas). Thus, I think that disaster relief will probably not be a national issue, though could stilll be an issue in states affected like LA, MS and AL.

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Have to agree with everything you said. As for Kerry, I certainly dont believe that talking about hurricanes would have elected him president, just made him look like someone with new ideas. Youre right though, that since Florida's hurricane relief was effective and Bush at the time was known as a leader, that he may have had more credintials.

Seven years is damn long time, but I think disasters be it floods, hurricanes, whatever will garter more press attention now and become a sort of frenzy, just how terrorism was after 9/11. Major terrorist attacks didnt increase after 9/11, but their coverage did. Seven years though of course may be a different story.

On a side note, abortion looks like it will be a huge issue in the near future.

So I'll drop this for now, and focus on other issues. Here's my candidate list not including possible incumbants

Dems: Pryor, Obama, maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Landrieu though I doubt it, Baucus, Bill Richardson, Salizar, Napolitano of Arizona which will gain importance in the electoral college.

Any Suggestions? I'll make a list of Republicans tomorow

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* Possible Incumbents Hillary Clinton, Edwards, Kerry (Kerry is an extreme longshot), and Dean (if Dems do will in 06)

* Gov. Warner of Virgina.

He's challanging Senator Allen in 06, and both men have been mentioned as 08 possibilities whose political careers will be over with an 06 loss. As a freshmen Senator, Warner probably wouldn't challenge Hillary, but if she loses in 08, Senator Warner would probably be the frontrunner for '12.

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Didnt think about Warner in 12' because I associate him with 08'.  Has anyone ever flirted with the idea of Jay Rockefeller ever running?

Rockefeller will be 75 years old in 2012. I think that is too old. Maviejderha, Warner isn't challenging Allen in 2006.

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