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State of the Race: 98 Days Left


98 Days Poll  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. See my first comment in the thread: If the election were held today, who would win? (I will ask this question every day until election)

  2. 2. Trump's approval is 40.1% on average. What does it need to be for him to be the likley winner in November?

    • A pathetic approval rate like 40.1% or lower doesn't matter. He's still be the likely winner in November.
    • 42%
      0
    • 43% (This is probably his average approval for his presidency)
    • 44% (This is his usual approval when it is high)
    • 45% (This is the highest average approval he's ever had)
    • 46%
      0
    • 47% (Obama's approval at this time in 2012, was in the low 50s on election day)
    • 48% (Bush II's approval at this time in 2004 -- was about 50 exactly on election day)
    • 49%
      0
    • 50% or higher
      0
  3. 3. For Trump, is the 55.8% Disapproval rating more damaging than his 40.1% Approval Rating. That is, is it more important to pay attention to the disapproval rating?

    • Yes, this increasing is more important than approval decreasing.
    • They're equally important or unimportant.
  4. 4. Trump is the first president to never throw out the ceremonial first pitch in baseball. Why is this the case after 4 years?

    • He doesn't want to get boo'd like he did when he spectated the World Series.
    • He's afraid he won't be able to throw the ball as well or as far as he wants.
    • He might think the pitcher's mound is dirty.
      0
    • This year there's Covid, and he likely had other valid excuses before.
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. There are videos of high winds blowing down party of Trump's Mexico Border. What are your thoughts on this? Check all that apply.

    • This is symbolic of Trump's campaign and presidency.
    • Trump's wall was likely just symbolic, so he purchased cheap material to get a quick wall up to create an appearance of an accomplishment.
    • Trump's wall is not just symbolic, but he probably went for material that reduced costs and get the wall up quickly.
    • This isn't Trump's fault. The builders were probably incompetent.
    • This isn't Trump's fault. Congress should have allocated funds for better, stronger material.
    • This is fake news! That was not Trump's border wall falling down.
    • It was just a fluke accident. Almost everything has a probability of falling in a hurricane. Even if the chance is almost zero, it can happen.
    • If the entire Trump wall is this flimsy, Biden should just pull the whole thing down over a weekend.
    • Other


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As always, Blue means momentum going towards Biden, and Red means momentum going towards Trump.

Bad day for Trump, only Texas shifted his way by 0.1%. Additionally, his average approval is 40.1%, while his disapproval is 55.8% still, which is high but holding. 

Biden improved numbers in almost every battleground state. He also leads Trump by 8.2 pts in the polls. Clinton averaged 3 pts vs Trump in 2016 at this point and was even losing in one major poll. 

I'll probably only show 5 or 7 days at a time once this gets long enough. 

Categories 100 Days Left 99 Days 98
Gen Avg Biden +8 Biden +8 Biden 8.2 (+0.2)
MI Avg Biden +7.4 Biden +7.7 (+0.3) Biden 7.7 (0)
WI Avg Biden +7.1 Biden +7.1 Biden 7.2 (+0.1)
PA Avg Biden +6.8 Biden +6.7 (-0.1) Biden 6.8 (+0.1)
NH Avg Biden +7.5 Biden +7.5 Biden 7.6 (+0.1)
NC avg Biden +2.2 Biden +2.2 Biden 3.0 (+0.8)
FL avg Biden +7.6 Biden +7.1 (-0.5) Biden 7.2 (+0.1)
GA avg Trump +1.3 Trump +1.3 Trump 1.3 (0)
TX avg Tie 0.0 Tie 0.0 Trump 0.1 (+0.1)
OH avg Biden +2.1 Biden +1.3 (-0.8) Biden 1.4 (+0.1)
IA avg Trump +0.3 Trump +0.3 Trump 0.2 (-0.1)
AZ avg Biden +2.9 Biden +3.3 (+0.4) Biden 3.3 (0)
NV avg Biden +6.7 Biden +6.7 Biden 6.9 (+0.2)
Trump Approval 40.2 40.2 (0) 40.1 (-0.1)
Trump Disapproval 55.7 55.8 (+0.1) 55.8 (0)
Favorability Biden +11.7 Biden +11.7 Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country -45.5 -45.5 -45.5
Generic Ballot Democrats +8.6 Democrats +8.6 Democrats +8.6
Betting Markets Biden 60.7 Biden 60.7 Biden 61.0 (+0.3)
Rasmussen GE n/a n/a n/a
Rasmussen Trump Approval 49 n/a 46 (-3)
FoxNews GE n/a n/a n/a
Fox News Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a
ABC/Wash GE n/a n/a n/a
ABC/Wash Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a
Marist GE n/a n/a n/a
Marist Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5 Clinton +5 Clinton +3
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3 Biden +3 Biden +5.2

 

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

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17 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Might make more sense to do this every week. Changes in numbers become more meaningful, also easier.

I'll do that if people prefer that I do that. I'll keep track of the daily shift in the spreadsheet regardless. I'll show a week's worth of info at a time, once I get a week's worth, so the week-long trend will be shown even as the daily trends are shown.

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1 minute ago, pilight said:

Every day seems a bit much

Okay, if I can get a 3rd person to agree with you and @admin_270, then I'll do it weekly, unless I get any strong protests. 

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Personally I enjoy the daily questions. Ultimately the only way I’d support weekly is if you feel burned out, doing this 100 times seems tiresome for you but that’s entirely your domain and you are an admirable worker.

I say keep it up as most as you feel you can and thanks very much for this!

@vcczar

  • Thanks 1
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7 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Personally I enjoy the daily questions. Ultimately the only way I’d support weekly is if you feel burned out, doing this 100 times seems tiresome for you but that’s entirely your domain and you are an admirable worker.

I say keep it up as most as you feel you can and thanks very much for this!

@vcczar

Yeah, I don't mind doing it. It just takes like 10 min to fill out the spreadsheet and type up a post. 

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@Dallas @admin_270

Really, the questions in these surveys can use some less slanted language. I guarantee you that if Trump HAD thrown out that first pitch he'd be attacked for trying to infect the team and stadium. It's real simple - he declined to do so because of Covid. That's it. The choices in that question are presumptuous, slanted, and quite laughable.

Can we get some polls with questions other than "Rate President Trump on a scale of F- to D?"

By the way, Biden's approval ratings have been hardly better than Trump's. On RCP the only poll showing above 50% was, ironically, Fox News. Also when you look at the Rasmussen page, where they have a running graph of Trump's approval from the beginning of his Presidency up until now, superimposed with Obama for the same equivalent dates, the graphs are barely distinguishable.

Bottom line: Approval rating is somewhat important, but you have to have an alternative choice. The last two times a candidate was up for re-election, I was looking at <50% approvals and was hoping that would be enough to get the candidate defeated. I was disappointingly wrong. Again I keep saying this, to say "who would win the race today" is irrelevant because the election isn't today, and the campaigns would be run differently if they were. If the polls were Trump vs. <Democrat TBD> then he'd probably be down by 20 points. Point being, this is much more than a referendum on Trump. You have to look at the other guy and say he'll do better. That's the hard lesson I learned in 2004 and 2012.

It just occurred to me that this is only the second re-election campaign in my memory (going back to 1984) where I wanted the incumbent to win. The only other one was Clinton in 1996. But hey, we were all young and stupid once :P

 

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59 minutes ago, servo75 said:

@Dallas @admin_270

Really, the questions in these surveys can use some less slanted language. I guarantee you that if Trump HAD thrown out that first pitch he'd be attacked for trying to infect the team and stadium. It's real simple - he declined to do so because of Covid. That's it. The choices in that question are presumptuous, slanted, and quite laughable.

Can we get some polls with questions other than "Rate President Trump on a scale of F- to D?"

By the way, Biden's approval ratings have been hardly better than Trump's. On RCP the only poll showing above 50% was, ironically, Fox News. Also when you look at the Rasmussen page, where they have a running graph of Trump's approval from the beginning of his Presidency up until now, superimposed with Obama for the same equivalent dates, the graphs are barely distinguishable.

Bottom line: Approval rating is somewhat important, but you have to have an alternative choice. The last two times a candidate was up for re-election, I was looking at <50% approvals and was hoping that would be enough to get the candidate defeated. I was disappointingly wrong. Again I keep saying this, to say "who would win the race today" is irrelevant because the election isn't today, and the campaigns would be run differently if they were. If the polls were Trump vs. <Democrat TBD> then he'd probably be down by 20 points. Point being, this is much more than a referendum on Trump. You have to look at the other guy and say he'll do better. That's the hard lesson I learned in 2004 and 2012.

It just occurred to me that this is only the second re-election campaign in my memory (going back to 1984) where I wanted the incumbent to win. The only other one was Clinton in 1996. But hey, we were all young and stupid once :P

 

He had 4 years to throw a pitch, 3 years before Covid.

The poll will be less slanted when Trump is less blunderous. It's hard to not have a slanted poll when Trump's reelection chances are collapsing with less than 100 days left. If it rises up, we will see more questions that slant against Biden. 

2000 election was my first election to vote in. 1988 is the first election I remember, although I was around for 1984 and (barely) for 1980. 

For me:

1988 - Dukakis (I was in elementary school)

1992 - Clinton (I was in middle school)

1996 - Clinton (I was in high school)

2000 - Bush (I voted for the home team, I've never regretted a vote more...I was finally old enough to vote. I've voted in every election since)

2004 - Kerry (I supported Kucinich until he dropped out. I liked Al Sharpton too). 

2008 - Obama (I supported Kucinich until he dropped out. Considered Clinton over Obama, but switched before the primary and voted Obama in the primary).

2012 - Obama 

2016 - Clinton (Bernie Sanders supporter but switching to Clinton in the general was easy considering how unacceptable Trump was as both a candidate and a human being.)

2020 - Biden (I kind of flip-flopped between preferring Sanders and Warren in the primary. Biden is an easy general election choice versus Trump.)

I think a vote for Trump is about as un-American as one can get, in my opinion. I understand others may have different opinions and disagree, which is a valid disagreement. 

On another note, it's interesting that you are tagging @Dallas. I don't think Dallas has been on this forum since 2016 or 2017. I think of the regular posters, only you and @jvikings1 @ThePotatoWalrus are the only open Trump supporters who are also resident Americans left on this forum, I think. 

 

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I'd agree that there's little value in daily data, a week makes slightly more sense.  

That said, I also enjoy having new content to discuss here in general, so I have no objection to the daily posts even if the movement in individual data points don't mean anything yet.

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Re: the wall blowing down:

I didn't see the video, but my general rule on this kind of thing is "Would I feel the same way if this happened with Obama or Bush or whoever in office".

Grabbing women by the pussy:  I'd be outraged no matter who was bragging about sexual assault.

Keeping children in cages:  I'd be outraged no matter who is President.

Wall blows down:  I'd probably be defending Bush or Obama.

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3 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

hello can you respond to my question? thank you

 

 

Threadjacking numerous unrelated threads to get @admin_270's attention will quickly make you unpopular with everyone else. There were a couple of other people that were doing that last year, I think.

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

Threadjacking numerous unrelated threads to get @admin_270's attention will quickly make you unpopular with everyone else. There were a couple of other people that were doing that last year, I think.

Numerous? I've only written 1 post here. I didn't realize it was a problem, if so I'm sorry. I'd just like an answer as I really enjoy the game. Sorry if that's a problem. 

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7 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Numerous? I've only written 1 post here. I didn't realize it was a problem, if so I'm sorry. I'd just like an answer as I really enjoy the game. Sorry if that's a problem. 

It's not numerous, yet. It's just a tactic I've seen blossom into numerous such posts by the couple of posters I'd mentioned in the past. My statement was moreso pre-emptive. If @admin_270 is tardy responding to your posts, try this email address: support2@theoryspark.com

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On 7/27/2020 at 9:47 PM, Patine said:

It's not numerous, yet. It's just a tactic I've seen blossom into numerous such posts by the couple of posters I'd mentioned in the past. My statement was moreso pre-emptive. If @admin_270 is tardy responding to your posts, try this email address: support2@theoryspark.com

Thank you. But I wrote to that email over a week ago and still haven't heard anything. I have no idea what other people to contact. I've tried every avenue. 

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6 hours ago, admin_270 said:

@PoliticalPundit

There is one version, President Infinity. If you order that, you also get the Beta.

OK I have the beta version but in the 2012, 2016 etc versions the only mode available is the general election. In previous games there was also the option to play the primaries like in the 2020 campaign.

 

 

Does the game no longer let you play primaries in campaigns other than 2020? 

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On 7/27/2020 at 1:20 PM, Actinguy said:

Re: the wall blowing down:

I didn't see the video, but my general rule on this kind of thing is "Would I feel the same way if this happened with Obama or Bush or whoever in office".

Grabbing women by the pussy:  I'd be outraged no matter who was bragging about sexual assault.

Keeping children in cages:  I'd be outraged no matter who is President.

Wall blows down:  I'd probably be defending Bush or Obama.

Good for you, but I'm afraid the major media doesn't see things in the same enlightened way that you seem to. The children in cages thing happened entirely under Obama, but they act like it was a Trump invention. Same with the "pussy" stuff. Clinton and Trump both have sexually promiscuous pasts. But Trump did NOT "brag about sexual assault." That is some of the biggest mis-quoting that I've seen against the President. What he was clearly saying was a sad but true fact, that when you're famous, women will let you get away with anything, FOR EXAMPLE you could (in theory) "grab them by the pussy." He never said that he did that, nor was he condoning it.

Not only do the Democrats and the news media (but I repeat myself) blame Trump for the exact same things they overlook in Democrats (where's the "I believe Tara Reid" movement???), but in a great deal of cases the Trump accusations are completely manufactured with little or any credible evidence.

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51 minutes ago, servo75 said:

Good for you, but I'm afraid the major media doesn't see things in the same enlightened way that you seem to. The children in cages thing happened entirely under Obama, but they act like it was a Trump invention. Same with the "pussy" stuff. Clinton and Trump both have sexually promiscuous pasts. But Trump did NOT "brag about sexual assault." That is some of the biggest mis-quoting that I've seen against the President. What he was clearly saying was a sad but true fact, that when you're famous, women will let you get away with anything, FOR EXAMPLE you could (in theory) "grab them by the pussy." He never said that he did that, nor was he condoning it.

Not only do the Democrats and the news media (but I repeat myself) blame Trump for the exact same things they overlook in Democrats (where's the "I believe Tara Reid" movement???), but in a great deal of cases the Trump accusations are completely manufactured with little or any credible evidence.

I mean, I literally heard the audio myself of him bragging about committing sexual assaults.  

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47 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I mean, I literally heard the audio myself of him bragging about committing sexual assaults.  

Give me the link to the audio you heard.

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Wait...have you really never heard it?  Fair enough.  Here it is.  

 

Okay, first off, I don't defend what is happening here and what's being said, but it's nothing that millions of guys haven't said. And spare me the "but they're not running for President." Neither was Trump at the time, and do we really want a moral purity test for the White House? Trust me the Democrats do NOT want to open up that box. They only clutch their pearls when people like Trump say these things, and even then it's only after he decided to run for President. They obviously never cared for 20 years prior. Could that be because he was a major Democrat donor for many years?  Compared to what Bill Clinton has done, and compared to some of the horrible, even racist things said and done by many Democrat heroes like Clinton, LBJ, JFK, Robert Byrd, is hypocritical at best!

But yes I listened to the whole recording. Here's the quote:

"And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything... grab 'em by the pussy."

Clearly he's speaking in the abstract here... one CAN do anything. At no point does he actually say he did this. I might care if the Democrats and the media gave as much scrutiny to their own saying and doing these types of things, but they don't. There are different rules for different parties. At the end of the day, it's just talk, and spare me the sanctimonious pearl-clutching, this ire is purely politically motivated, nothing more. One disgusting statement amplified over and over again 20 years later, when many Democrats, including Congresspeople and presidential candidates have ACTUALLY done much worse.

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