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If Trump wins in 2020, it will be the greatest Presidential election comeback in the history of modern polling

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I recently read this article

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/donald-trump-comeback-history-214195

and what I found interesting is that when it was written in late August 2016, Trump was 6 pts down in the RCP average vs. H. Clinton. (Of course, he went on to lose the popular vote while winning the EC, but that gap was significantly less by November - despite the Access Hollywood tape.)

Based on the examples in that article, you have to go back to Truman-Dewey to get a comparable comeback. That's on the margin of what is considered modern polling.

So, for Trump to win when down 10 pts in the summer it seems would be the greatest comeback in the history of modern polling.

Anyone know offhand of anyone who won starting with Eisenhower who was behind by a significant % in the summer before the general election?

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It will be if he wins. 
Let me check some old polls. 

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@admin_270

Here you go (for July) since 1960:

1960 - JFK +4

1964 - LBJ +36

1968 - Humphrey +5 (support swerved to Nixon at the end of July)

1972 - Nixon +19

1976 - Carter +33 (vs. incumbent) (Carter had massive lead that all but disappeared in the last week. Ford led in polls in the last week but lost election)

1980 - Reagan +5

1984 - Reagan +8 

1988 - Dukakis +6

1992 - Clinton +20

1996 - Clinton +17

2000 - Bush +2

2004 - Kerry +5

2008 - Obama +6

2012 - Obama +4

2016 - Clinton +4

2020 - Biden +9

 

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So from July, I believe the comebacks that resulted in the person behind in July winning are

1968 Humphrey +5 -> Nixon +1 (6 pt swing)

1988 Dukakis +6 -> Bush +8 (14 pt swing)

2004 Kerry +5 -> Bush +2 (7 pt swing)

2016 Clinton +4 -> Clinton +2 (2 pt swing)

With Biden at +9, and assuming Trump can win with Biden at +2 (Clinton's national advantage in 2016), that would require a 7 pt swing.

So it would be the greatest comeback in terms of pts behind at this point, but wouldn't necessarily be the greatest comeback in terms of pts swing if Trump wins.

(To be the greatest comeback in terms of pts swing would require about Trump +6 as a final result.)

Interesting - thanks for this!

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

I recently read this article

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/donald-trump-comeback-history-214195

and what I found interesting is that when it was written in late August 2016, Trump was 6 pts down in the RCP average vs. H. Clinton. (Of course, he went on to lose the popular vote while winning the EC, but that gap was significantly less by November - despite the Access Hollywood tape.)

Based on the examples in that article, you have to go back to Truman-Dewey to get a comparable comeback. That's on the margin of what is considered modern polling.

So, for Trump to win when down 10 pts in the summer it seems would be the greatest comeback in the history of modern polling.

Anyone know offhand of anyone who won starting with Eisenhower who was behind by a significant % in the summer before the general election?

Sounds like more wistful thinking than any likely possibility or event. Then again, the Jungian theory that, "the individual is capable of intelligence, discernment, wisdom, and judgement - the masses are stupid," could always definitely apply. And Biden is not a stellar candidate (though not as wretched as Clinton), which moreso goes to nail forth the point that American voters NEED more than just these two failed, lying, criminal parties' candidates as viable choices in high-level elections.

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The Jungian theory (which I do agree with) reminds me of a poll that asked people whether they believed that they, themselves, were "more intelligent than the average person".

The result?

65% of people believed they themselves had above average intelligence. 

In other words, most people think they are smarter than most other people, even though this statistically can not be true.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0200103

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