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vcczar

Presidents by Economic Crisis

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Presidents with the most unique economic crises that began during their presidency:

  • Woodrow Wilson
  • Dwight D. Eisenhower

Both of these president saw three economic crises originate during their presidencies. In all cases, they were rather brief. Wilson's averaged about a year each before the economy started improving and Eisenhower's averaged about 9 or 10 months before the economy improved. Both of these presidents were two-term presidents. 

One-term presidents with at least two unique economic crises that originated in their presidency:

  • John Q. Adams
  • James Buchanan
  • Grover Cleveland (2nd non-consecutive term)

Of these, Cleveland's was the most damaging, allowing progressive to take control of his party and allowing a McKinley and GOP landslide victory. However, Adams was dealing with the economy trending downward for 3 years of his 4 years. 

Presidents that served more than one term with zero unique economic crises that originated in their presidency:

  • Abraham Lincoln
  • LBJ
  • Bill Clinton
  • Barack Obama

Lincoln and Obama had to deal with residual economic downturn that started in the previous administration. LBJ and Clinton are the only presidents to not see an economic crisis in their own term or residual from a predecessor. Bill Clinton's is most impressive, considering he served a full 8 years. 

One thing I've noticed is that economic crises seemed to be more common and lengthier on average before a recovery began before the introduction of the Federal Reserve. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence or not or just because a global economy is more stabilizing. I'm not an economist. This is just an observation. This said, the biggest depression and recession were in the Federal Reserve era. 

 

 

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It's surprising to see Lincoln in the list of Presidents with 0 unique economic crises during his time in office. You'd think the Civil War would've caused something (granted war does motivate the economy), especially considering the fact that it was all located in the US.

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3 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

It's surprising to see Lincoln in the list of Presidents with 0 unique economic crises during his time in office. You'd think the Civil War would've caused something (granted war does motivate the economy), especially considering the fact that it was all located in the US.

It started with Buchanan in 1860 as states were seceding. Recovery started, possibly because of war production, in 1861. However, no unique economic crisis occurred again until the war ended after Lincoln's assassination. It is likely this would have occurred had Lincoln still been living. It was a post-war recession. Some wars lead to post-war booms, some to recessions. Sometimes it's both, one right after the other. The economy is weird. 

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28 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

It's surprising to see Lincoln in the list of Presidents with 0 unique economic crises during his time in office. You'd think the Civil War would've caused something (granted war does motivate the economy), especially considering the fact that it was all located in the US.

 

22 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It started with Buchanan in 1860 as states were seceding. Recovery started, possibly because of war production, in 1861. However, no unique economic crisis occurred again until the war ended after Lincoln's assassination. It is likely this would have occurred had Lincoln still been living. It was a post-war recession. Some wars lead to post-war booms, some to recessions. Sometimes it's both, one right after the other. The economy is weird. 

Plus, the worst economic woes in the pre-1860 U.S. borders during the Lincoln Administration were in the Confederacy, where the economy was downright bleak and dismal. But that was Davis' economy, not Lincoln's, I guess.

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24 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@jvikings1 @Patine @SilentLiberty @pilight @Reagan04 What kind of presidential list would you like me to do next? 

I don't know if you could do it/have the time to do it, but Presidents by International Prestige would be an interesting list.

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14 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I don't know if you could do it/have the time to do it, but Presidents by International Prestige would be an interesting list.

I could cobble something together. What are the criteria for International Prestige in your opinion? I'll probably add or adjust the list. Would like to hear from others as well. 

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37 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I could cobble something together. What are the criteria for International Prestige in your opinion? I'll probably add or adjust the list. Would like to hear from others as well. 

State of international/trade relations, superpower status?, status in major international events, how other countries view the US

 

Things along those lines

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3 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

State of international/trade relations, superpower status?, status in major international events, how other countries view the US

 

Things along those lines

Ok, that might be hard to estimate. I could probably make one that is based off the standing compared to the predecessor, or something like that. 

For the most part, this is just going to be an upward trend, which isn't going to make for a very interesting ranking. I could try adding up all major Foreign Policy agreements and actions per president, to see who has been most interventionist, perhaps. 

I'll put this one on the to do list, but if you can think of something I could rank that can be based off figures that would be great, ideally figures that go back as far as possible in US history. I might have tapped out a lot of what I can rank. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Ok, that might be hard to estimate. I could probably make one that is based off the standing compared to the predecessor, or something like that. 

For the most part, this is just going to be an upward trend, which isn't going to make for a very interesting ranking. I could try adding up all major Foreign Policy agreements and actions per president, to see who has been most interventionist, perhaps. 

I'll put this one on the to do list, but if you can think of something I could rank that can be based off figures that would be great, ideally figures that go back as far as possible in US history. I might have tapped out a lot of what I can rank. 

Also, would isolationists like Cleveland, Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, and (obstensably) Jefferson have high, low, or middling ratings in International Esteem?

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

One thing I've noticed is that economic crises seemed to be more common and lengthier on average before a recovery began before the introduction of the Federal Reserve. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence or not or just because a global economy is more stabilizing.

The introduction of fiat money and the subsequent increase in governmental flexibility in dealing with economic crises is a more likely culprit.  

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14 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Ok, that might be hard to estimate. I could probably make one that is based off the standing compared to the predecessor, or something like that. 

For the most part, this is just going to be an upward trend, which isn't going to make for a very interesting ranking. I could try adding up all major Foreign Policy agreements and actions per president, to see who has been most interventionist, perhaps. 

I'll put this one on the to do list, but if you can think of something I could rank that can be based off figures that would be great, ideally figures that go back as far as possible in US history. I might have tapped out a lot of what I can rank. 

Ya, I figured something like that would be difficult. Foreign policy agreements/actions would probably be a good one though.

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24 minutes ago, Patine said:

Also, would isolationists like Cleveland, Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, and (obstensably) Jefferson have high, low, or middling ratings in International Esteem?

Case by case basis, but that does highlight the difficulty of it all. Jefferson was kind of a disaster on economic and foreign policy in the last few years of his term, even though it was well intentions. He was probably in a lose-lose situation. 

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9 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

State of international/trade relations, superpower status?, status in major international events, how other countries view the US

That's going to be heavily slanted in favor of modern presidents.  Most of the world didn't know or care about Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, and the other presidents of that era.

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12 hours ago, vcczar said:

@jvikings1 @Patine @SilentLiberty @pilight @Reagan04 What kind of presidential list would you like me to do next? 

I'm curious how you rank presidents on their "coalition size", if that is measurable. I am thinking of this, because of constant news headlines of 'Trump playing to his base'; and I am curious how past presidents ranked. 

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4 hours ago, pilight said:

That's going to be heavily slanted in favor of modern presidents.  Most of the world didn't know or care about Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, and the other presidents of that era.

For sure. It would just be interesting to see a trend over time.

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9 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I'm curious how you rank presidents on their "coalition size", if that is measurable. I am thinking of this, because of constant news headlines of 'Trump playing to his base'; and I am curious how past presidents ranked. 

I think I figured something out that can kind of measure something akin to this using election performance and that performance with the preceding nominee and subsequent nominee. Obviously, these two other nominees would not be the same as the base nominee for this exercise. 

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