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billay

The Trump Hail Mary

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Let's say in another month or so his poll numbers look the same...

 

Does he:

A) Shift on COVID, blame Mike Pence, Fire him and announce Nikki Haley the VP? Possibly giving him a bump with women and playing nice with the establishment setting her up for 2024?

B) Do Republicans try and convince someone like Thomas to step down from SCOTUS to possibly change the election narrative from COVID/Protests to SCOTUS appointments?

 

C. Other?

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Clearly the option with the sunglasses. 😉

Looking at death totals in the U.S., which continue to trend downwards, it's not clear if it's reasonable to expect COVID to be a significant issue come August.

Here's the latest graph, blue is documented cases, orange is documented deaths.

EcRfqToUYAA8Dac?format=jpg&name=large

 

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18 minutes ago, billay said:

Let's say in another month or so his poll numbers look the same...

 

Does he:

A) Shift on COVID, blame Mike Pence, Fire him and announce Nikki Haley the VP? Possibly giving him a bump with women and playing nice with the establishment setting her up for 2024?

B) Do Republicans try and convince someone like Thomas to step down from SCOTUS to possibly change the election narrative from COVID/Protests to SCOTUS appointments?

 

C. Other?

B. Might terribly backfire. They won't do that. 

A. Is more likely to happen. 

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That huge upswing in documented cases hasn't had a correlative upswing in deaths yet. In fact, daily deaths are at their lowest since March.

Of course, it might. But at this point, it looks like the upswing in cases is either an artifact of increased testing, or cases among people who are much less likely to die from COVID-19 (such as young people) - which is possible, given the composition of the crowds at recent protests, or indicates the virus is becoming less lethal (possible - often happens with viruses), or perhaps something else.

We'll see.

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Clearly the option with the sunglasses. 😉

Looking at death totals in the U.S., which continue to trend downwards, it's not clear if it's reasonable to expect COVID to be a significant issue come August.

Here's the latest graph, blue is documented cases, orange is documented deaths.

EcRfqToUYAA8Dac?format=jpg&name=large

 

Deaths are going down because we now have a system in play, ventillators, etc. So those will probably decrease. Cases will increase because we are able to identify them more often. But this also means the country will take longer to reopen. I'm not sure why this wouldn't be an issue in a month. I'm still remembering when Trump was saying everything would be back to normal by Easter.  

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

But this also means the country will take longer to reopen.

Why? If it becomes clear increased cases aren't translating into increased deaths, seems will have the opposite effect (if people are rational - which admittedly, they often aren't).

Will it still be an issue in a month? Yes. Will it be a dominant issue? Not if these trends continue (which, of course, they might not).

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What could go 'right' to help Trump?

1. COVID-19 continues to become less lethal. Becomes a minor issue by Nov.

2. Economy continues to improve. NASDAQ is already at a record high. DOW-Jones has recovered a significant amount from its lows. Employment numbers for May and June have been good. Tesla North American supercharger usage now at pre-COVID-19 high. 😉

EcIbkGaUcAAXWJV?format=jpg&name=small

3. Trump develops a compelling second-term agenda.

4. Biden doesn't present a compelling alternative outside of being the 'un-Trump'.

5. No major Trump scandals emerge.

Bonus 6. Biden commits major gaffes or becomes embroiled in some sort of significant scandal.

 

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8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Why? If it becomes clear increased cases aren't translating into increased deaths, seems will have the opposite effect

You have to look at this beyond deaths. That isn't the only factor. The healthcare costs of those hit with Covid are ruining people financially. Some people that get it and survive emerge with permanent physical damage. We also don't have a national plan in place to deal with these issues I bring up. If we end the shutdown nationally, I think a guaranteed minimum income, a major reduction in feeds related to Covid healthcare bills, and continuing some social distancing tactics would have to occur.

One thing to look at is the net popularity of governors that are taking the Covid seriously and those that aren't. 

Doug Ducey of AZ has like a 25% net approval --- an he was wildly popular before this. DeSantis of FL is in the negative. Gretchen Whitmer has like +18. My Gov, Wolf, is at +6 for his handling of Covid. Obviously, the states with governors being dismissive about this are losing support among those feeling the repurcussions of covid.  

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

What could go 'right' to help Trump?

1. COVID-19 continues to become less lethal. Becomes a minor issue by Nov.

2. Economy continues to improve. NASDAQ is already at a record high. DOW-Jones has recovered a significant amount from its lows. Employment numbers for May and June have been good. Tesla North American supercharger usage now at pre-COVID-19 high. 😉

EcIbkGaUcAAXWJV?format=jpg&name=small

3. Trump develops a compelling second-term agenda.

4. Biden doesn't present a compelling alternative outside of being the 'un-Trump'.

5. No major Trump scandals emerge.

Bonus 6. Biden commits major gaffes or becomes embroiled in some sort of significant scandal.

 

This isn't going to matter so much as, "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" argument. Trump needs his economy to be better than it was pre-Covid to be the favorite for reelection. He was polling below Biden pre-Covid. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

You have to look at this beyond deaths.

It's the hardest metric we have, and probably the most important one. Yes, there are further issues, such as hospitalization costs. But the cases number isn't about hospitalizations due to COVID-19. If it were, this would be a stronger point.

All sorts of medical issues ruin people financially in the States. The question is how big it will be. About 7,000 people die a day in the U.S. from various causes. About 500 per day are dying right now from COVID-19. If that continues to decrease, it seems the issue will continue to decrease in importance, perhaps even becoming a minor issue by Nov.

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30 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Clearly the option with the sunglasses. 😉

Looking at death totals in the U.S., which continue to trend downwards, it's not clear if it's reasonable to expect COVID to be a significant issue come August.

Here's the latest graph, blue is documented cases, orange is documented deaths.

EcRfqToUYAA8Dac?format=jpg&name=large

 

Hi, your friendly resident hospital spokesman here. ;c)

This is pretty misleading, as many states are seeing a significant uptick in cases due to reopenings and relaxation of safety measures.  But COVID death is not instantaneous.  It will take weeks before the deaths start trending upward as well.

Yes, many of the current new cases are among those who are in their 20's to 30's, and therefore most likely to survive (painfully -- "survive" does not mean "You'll barely feel it."  It sucks.  It sucks so bad).

But 20's to 30's year olds are the ones who tend to be the front line workers at...basically everywhere you go.  And everywhere your parents go.  And everywhere your grandparents go.

The death count is going to start growing exponentially again, it just needs a few weeks to catch up.

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51 minutes ago, billay said:

Let's say in another month or so his poll numbers look the same...

 

Does he:

A) Shift on COVID, blame Mike Pence, Fire him and announce Nikki Haley the VP? Possibly giving him a bump with women and playing nice with the establishment setting her up for 2024?

B) Do Republicans try and convince someone like Thomas to step down from SCOTUS to possibly change the election narrative from COVID/Protests to SCOTUS appointments?

 

C. Other?

Sunglasses is possible, but I'll go "Other":  

Double down on the Biden's son conspiracy theories, double down on the "Democrats want to abolish the police, you'll be robbed and murdered and robbed again" hot take, double down on blaming economic impact of Coronavirus on Democrats, double down on blaming Coronavirus as a whole on foreigners.

 

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

The death count is going to start growing exponentially again, it just needs a few weeks to catch up.

I'll bookmark this, @Actinguy . Not just increasing numbers through July, but exponentially increasing numbers? OK - I think this is possible, but it has already been weeks since increased documented case numbers. We should really be starting to see an increase already. Perhaps we're just on the cusp of increases - totally possible. I don't pretend to know exactly what's going on vis a vis documented cases vs. deaths, and I will actually be surprised if there isn't some sort of at least plateau or modest increase. We'll see.

 

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Just now, Actinguy said:

Sunglasses is possible, but I'll go "Other":  

Double down on the Biden's son conspiracy theories, double down on the "Democrats want to abolish the police, you'll be robbed and murdered and robbed again" hot take, double down on blaming economic impact of Coronavirus on Democrats, double down on blaming Coronavirus as a whole on foreigners.

 

Yeah, it will likely be other. I see Biden conspiracy theories being the main strategy to hurt Biden. There will be sex scandal stuff coming out, possibly true but also possibly not true. They have to ruin Biden's likability to have any shot at winning. However, in a partisan age, I don't think that will help much. 

I really don't think there is anything Trump can do to win this election in four months, except for be quieter, be more presidential, and hope the economy recovers soon. He can't seem to do anything right now without it keeping Biden at +10 or higher. 

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'll bookmark this, @Actinguy . Not just increasing numbers through July, but exponentially increasing numbers? OK - I think this is possible, but it has already been weeks since increased documented case numbers. We should really be starting to see an increase already. Perhaps we're just on the cusp of increases - totally possible. I don't pretend to know exactly what's going on vis a vis documented cases vs. deaths, and I will actually be surprised if there isn't some sort of at least plateau or modest increase. We'll see.

 

Washington Post just had an article today stating that experts expect the deaths to rise as cases rise. I can't read the article without paying for it or I'd let you know what their rationale is. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

experts expect the deaths to rise as cases rise

Yes, many experts certainly do. But we haven't been seeing it yet. It's now been roughly 3 weeks since cases began to rise. If this continues, it is almost certain something else is going on. Better care? Younger demo? Less lethal mutation of virus? Increased testing? Better immune functioning due to summer? It might be a combination of several or more of these factors. By August, we should have a clearer picture.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Yes, many experts certainly do. But we haven't been seeing it yet. It's now been roughly 3 weeks since cases began to rise. If this continues, it is almost certain something else is going on. Better care? Younger demo? Less lethal mutation of virus? Increased testing? Better immune functioning due to summer? It might be a combination of several or more of these factors. By August, we should have a clearer picture.

I think better care and increased testing and just plain experience with it are factors. I've also heard that the latest mutation might be less deadly but also more contagious. 

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19 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Yes, many of the current new cases are among those who are in their 20's to 30's, and therefore most likely to survive (painfully -- "survive" does not mean "You'll barely feel it."  It sucks.  It sucks so bad).

Not true. Most in 20s or 30s have mild or no symptoms.

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Not true. Most in 20s or 30s have mild or no symptoms.

Amazing levels of oral defecation in lieu of statistics and fact - as long as it helps the pro-Trump narrative...

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@admin_270 @Actinguy

Nate Silver reports via @Covid19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths:

  • Today: 919
  • Yesterday: 242
  • One Week ago: 596

 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@admin_270 @Actinguy

Nate Silver reports via @Covid19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths:

  • Today: 919
  • Yesterday: 242
  • One Week ago: 596

 

Numbers bounce around a bit from day to day. Look at weekly averages.

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

Amazing levels of oral defecation in lieu of statistics and fact - as long as it helps the pro-Trump narrative...

OK, @Patine , put up or shut up. What's incorrect in what I said, and why?

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12 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

OK, @Patine , put up or shut up. What's incorrect in what I said, and why?

No, YOU put up - who says people in their 20s and 30s don't experience any symptoms?

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18 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Numbers bounce around a bit from day to day. Look at weekly averages.

Ohio, under a Republican Governor, uses a 21 day average.  

He just ordered mandatory mask wearing in seven of our counties (including mine) because the 21 day average is trend is quickly moving in the wrong direction.

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3 minutes ago, Wiw said:

No, YOU put up - who says people in their 20s and 30s don't experience any symptoms?

No, WHO says. No really, who says? WHO. C'mon, tell me! Who says?!?

Please re-read what I said. Most people in 20s and 30s have mild or no symptoms.

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