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LegolasRedbard

Scottish Independence?

Do you think Scotland *should* be an independent country?  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you think Scotland *should* be an independent country?

    • Yes
      9
    • No
      4
    • Don't Know
      7
  2. 2. Do you think Scotland *will* be an independent country?

    • Yes
      5
    • No
      9
    • Don't know
      6


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https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18562149.support-scottish-independence-surges-new-poll-snp-look-set-landslide-victory-holyrood-elections/

 

With the differences in the Scottish and English response to coronavirus, it seems that the SNP are on course to win a majority in the next devolved elections in 2021, which they argue would be a solid mandate for a second independence referendum, less than ten years after the last one. Why is this? A few reasons are:

 

1. Perceived incompetence on behalf of the Westminster government in their handling of the coronavirus pandemic, in contrast with the perceived competence of the Scottish Government

2. Dissatisfaction over Brexit, still. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year with or without a solid agreement, the SNP are still holding on to the pro-European votes they picked up at the 2019 general election.

3. Lack of a strong opposition. Scotland's largest opposition party, the Scottish Conservatives, are currently headed by Jackson Carlaw, who has failed to live up to the successes of his predecessor (the well liked Ruth Davidson), despite leading the Scot Tories to a better result in 2019 than they were expecting. The third largest party, Scottish Labour, is currently led by Richard Leonard, a man with the charisma of a damp rag and a socialist hangover from the Corbyn era.

4. Nicola Sturgeon's skills as a strong leader, strong communicator and a perceived honest stateswoman.

 

Taking these at face value, SNP victory in 2021 is practically assured. However, for each of these issues there are counter arguments which mean that this 34 point lead may seem more fragile than it appears on the surface.

 

1. Scotland's response to coronavirus has been almost identical to England's, except with a better PR team. However, the few vital differences in terms of re-opening may be part of the reason that Scotland is on track to be the worst affected of any European nation in terms of the economy. With Scotland's finances already on the ropes before the crisis, and Scotland's experienced and competent Finance Minister and heir to Sturgeon's throne Derek Mackay out of politics for good, the new finance minister is bracing to hike taxes even further

2. The Brexit argument is pretty much over and by no way the issue it once was with the spread of corona. The SNP's monopoly on pro-EU votes is no longer secured, either. They benefited in 2019 from Labour refusing to take a side on Brexit, and the spectacular failure that was the Lib Dem campaign, but with the new Starmer leadership seeming to go after the SNP more than Corbyn would, and the Lib Dems set to choose a new, more popular, leader those votes could be at risk again.

3. Jackson Carlaw in recent weeks has been bolder in his attacks on Sturgeon, after spending quite a lot of the crisis backing Sturgeon's moves. Despite being denounced as "grubby political opportunism" by Sturgeon, his capitalisation on the schools crisis managed to force an SNP u-turn. It would not be wise to count him out at this stage. On the Labour side, there have been manouevers against Richard Leonard to an extent, and the new Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray has been outspoken in his criticism of the SNP during the crisis. With a new leader, Scottish Labour could rebound yet.

4. Nicola Sturgeon is a strong leader, and a strong communicator. However, a lot of her appeal comes from her perceived integrity and honesty as First Minister. Later this summer, Sturgeon will be called to testify in front of the Scottish Parliament committee on the Alex Salmond affair, under oath. Sources close to all of this seem to suggest that this is going to be... bad for the SNP, to say the least. Sturgeon's position within the SNP has already been under threat in recent months, with MP Joanna Cherry seeming to be on manoeuvres and growing dissatisfaction from the SNP grassroots that the Scot Gov hasn't gone full Catalonia with a wildcat referendum yet.

 

Interesting times, to put it mildly.

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If the people of Scotland want independence, then I am in favor of their self determination. But, that's up to them.

As for will they be independent, not in the near future. Borris Johnson isn't going to allow them to hold another vote (which may play into the SNP's hands), so it would have to wait until a more leftist government is in power. But, that might hurt the chances of pro-independence groups since they tend to be more leftist themselves.

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1 minute ago, jvikings1 said:

If the people of Scotland want independence, then I am in favor of their self determination. But, that's up to them.

As for will they be independent, not in the near future. Borris Johnson isn't going to allow them to hold another vote (which may play into the SNP's hands), so it would have to wait until a more leftist government is in power. But, that might hurt the chances of pro-independence groups since they tend to be more leftist themselves.

Yeah, letting Scotland go basically hands England to the Conservative Party for like a decade based off my understanding of party support there. 

I'm not going to take this poll because my knowledge of Scottish politics isn't close to my knowledge of American politics. I'm for whatever any country wants to do so long as it doesn't create a human rights violation or a reduction or restriction in achieving equality for all citizens therein. 

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33 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

If the people of Scotland want independence, then I am in favor of their self determination. But, that's up to them.

As for will they be independent, not in the near future. Borris Johnson isn't going to allow them to hold another vote (which may play into the SNP's hands), so it would have to wait until a more leftist government is in power. But, that might hurt the chances of pro-independence groups since they tend to be more leftist themselves.

At least the SNP wasn't "like turkeys voting for Christmas," this time. They've stuck to their convictions for a great deal.

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5 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

If the people of Scotland want independence, then I am in favor of their self determination. But, that's up to them.

As for will they be independent, not in the near future. Borris Johnson isn't going to allow them to hold another vote (which may play into the SNP's hands), so it would have to wait until a more leftist government is in power. But, that might hurt the chances of pro-independence groups since they tend to be more leftist themselves.

He said theoretically if the SNP and Greens manage to get 50+1% in Holyrood that he would allow a referendum. That looks assured right now (50% SNP 8% Greens last poll). Cameron allowed a vote as a Conservative PM.

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

He said theoretically if the SNP and Greens manage to get 50+1% in Holyrood that he would allow a referendum. That looks assured right now (50% SNP 8% Greens last poll). Cameron allowed a vote as a Conservative PM.

Johnson is not Cameron. Johnson is closer to Churchill in his post-WW2 term - except not as charismatic. And Churchill regarded the Plaid Cymru and SNP (and Sinn Fein when he was Secretary of State of the Home Office in the WW1 era) as tantamount to guilty of non-insurgent treason against the Crown. Although maybe not as extreme, Johnson seems more Nationalistic than any PM since Churchill - and his "Nation," is the UK, not just England.

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9 hours ago, LegolasRedbard said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18562149.support-scottish-independence-surges-new-poll-snp-look-set-landslide-victory-holyrood-elections/

 

With the differences in the Scottish and English response to coronavirus, it seems that the SNP are on course to win a majority in the next devolved elections in 2021, which they argue would be a solid mandate for a second independence referendum, less than ten years after the last one. Why is this? A few reasons are:

 

1. Perceived incompetence on behalf of the Westminster government in their handling of the coronavirus pandemic, in contrast with the perceived competence of the Scottish Government

2. Dissatisfaction over Brexit, still. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year with or without a solid agreement, the SNP are still holding on to the pro-European votes they picked up at the 2019 general election.

3. Lack of a strong opposition. Scotland's largest opposition party, the Scottish Conservatives, are currently headed by Jackson Carlaw, who has failed to live up to the successes of his predecessor (the well liked Ruth Davidson), despite leading the Scot Tories to a better result in 2019 than they were expecting. The third largest party, Scottish Labour, is currently led by Richard Leonard, a man with the charisma of a damp rag and a socialist hangover from the Corbyn era.

4. Nicola Sturgeon's skills as a strong leader, strong communicator and a perceived honest stateswoman.

 

Taking these at face value, SNP victory in 2021 is practically assured. However, for each of these issues there are counter arguments which mean that this 34 point lead may seem more fragile than it appears on the surface.

 

1. Scotland's response to coronavirus has been almost identical to England's, except with a better PR team. However, the few vital differences in terms of re-opening may be part of the reason that Scotland is on track to be the worst affected of any European nation in terms of the economy. With Scotland's finances already on the ropes before the crisis, and Scotland's experienced and competent Finance Minister and heir to Sturgeon's throne Derek Mackay out of politics for good, the new finance minister is bracing to hike taxes even further

2. The Brexit argument is pretty much over and by no way the issue it once was with the spread of corona. The SNP's monopoly on pro-EU votes is no longer secured, either. They benefited in 2019 from Labour refusing to take a side on Brexit, and the spectacular failure that was the Lib Dem campaign, but with the new Starmer leadership seeming to go after the SNP more than Corbyn would, and the Lib Dems set to choose a new, more popular, leader those votes could be at risk again.

3. Jackson Carlaw in recent weeks has been bolder in his attacks on Sturgeon, after spending quite a lot of the crisis backing Sturgeon's moves. Despite being denounced as "grubby political opportunism" by Sturgeon, his capitalisation on the schools crisis managed to force an SNP u-turn. It would not be wise to count him out at this stage. On the Labour side, there have been manouevers against Richard Leonard to an extent, and the new Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray has been outspoken in his criticism of the SNP during the crisis. With a new leader, Scottish Labour could rebound yet.

4. Nicola Sturgeon is a strong leader, and a strong communicator. However, a lot of her appeal comes from her perceived integrity and honesty as First Minister. Later this summer, Sturgeon will be called to testify in front of the Scottish Parliament committee on the Alex Salmond affair, under oath. Sources close to all of this seem to suggest that this is going to be... bad for the SNP, to say the least. Sturgeon's position within the SNP has already been under threat in recent months, with MP Joanna Cherry seeming to be on manoeuvres and growing dissatisfaction from the SNP grassroots that the Scot Gov hasn't gone full Catalonia with a wildcat referendum yet.

 

Interesting times, to put it mildly.

I agree with all, as I like to keep a look at Scottish politics :)

 

However, you don't mention the downright hostility that Westminster shows to the SNP politicians and to Scotland in general - e.g. allowing only 15 minutes of conversation on devolution during the Brexit debate, throwing out Ian Blackford in parliament when he pressed for it, the SNP walkout that followed, the jeering of them by their English counterparts and also the seizing of devolution matters during the Brexit debate for at least 7 years. As well as downright ignoring Holyrood, the Welsh Parliament, and the Northern Irish devolved government during Brexit negotiations. The UK is beginning to tear apart because of the lack of respect towards devolution. 

 

Also, your COVID argument may prove to be true, but it is flawed. England is already seeing a rise in cases - and has had more than five times lower the infection rate than their English counterparts.

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-scotland-recap-scotland-infection-rate-five-times-lower-england-2902552

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

Johnson is not Cameron. Johnson is closer to Churchill in his post-WW2 term - except not as charismatic. And Churchill regarded the Plaid Cymru and SNP (and Sinn Fein when he was Secretary of State of the Home Office in the WW1 era) as tantamount to guilty of non-insurgent treason against the Crown. Although maybe not as extreme, Johnson seems more Nationalistic than any PM since Churchill - and his "Nation," is the UK, not just England.

We'll see. It seems to just be England, for all the attention he shows Wales, NI, and Scotland. 

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, letting Scotland go basically hands England to the Conservative Party for like a decade based off my understanding of party support there. 

I'm not going to take this poll because my knowledge of Scottish politics isn't close to my knowledge of American politics. I'm for whatever any country wants to do so long as it doesn't create a human rights violation or a reduction or restriction in achieving equality for all citizens therein. 

Turns out that England has been in the hands of the Conservative party for a decade.

One could argue thats due to the SNP. Scotland is more left than the rest of the country, they lost Scotland as soon as Blair got unpopular.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

We'll see. It seems to just be England, for all the attention he shows Wales, NI, and Scotland. 

I should probably clarify that statement. He is an English Nationalist who believes the other three countries (or so it seems) are subordinate regions, but politically-indivisible - if that analysis makes sense. The way Puerto Ricans are often viewed by American Nationalists, for instance.

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9 hours ago, Patine said:

At least the SNP wasn't "like turkeys voting for Christmas," this time. They've stuck to their convictions for a great deal.

It is respectable of them to stand on principle. Even though I despise most of their economic policies, I can commend them for their commitment to their cause. If things keep trending in current directions, it'll likely pay off for them.

3 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

He said theoretically if the SNP and Greens manage to get 50+1% in Holyrood that he would allow a referendum. That looks assured right now (50% SNP 8% Greens last poll). Cameron allowed a vote as a Conservative PM.

As Patine mentioned, I don't see that happening. We'll see though. More shocking things have happened in recent politics.

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Same feeling as with Quebec. If they want to go, they can go. Polities ought to be about mutual self-interest. If one side decides it isn't working, time to rework things.

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19 hours ago, wolves said:

Turns out that England has been in the hands of the Conservative party for a decade.

One could argue thats due to the SNP. Scotland is more left than the rest of the country, they lost Scotland as soon as Blair got unpopular.

Labour needs to act like Scotland matters - they have one paltry Scottish seat in Westminster, not exactly a glowing endorsement from their former heartlands. 

I think that if Scotland leaves, the Tories will have a short-term advantage. Eventually, it will go away because governing parties always take hits, and they will have to make unpopular decisions that will balance it out. 

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Same feeling as with Quebec. If they want to go, they can go. Polities ought to be about mutual self-interest. If one side decides it isn't working, time to rework things.

What about Texas and California? Would the U.S. let more than 1/3 of their total GDP walk-away amicably?

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

What about Texas and California? Would the U.S. let more than 1/3 of their total GDP walk-away amicably?

If Texas or California want to go, yes. That 1/3 of GDP is Texas and California's, not Washington, D.C.'s.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

What about Texas and California? Would the U.S. let more than 1/3 of their total GDP walk-away amicably?

I don't think @admin_270 is arguing that the US would do that, moreso that he believes that that's what should happen.

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If Texas or California want to go, yes. That 1/3 of GDP is Texas and California's, not Washington, D.C.'s.

Ah yes, an Independent California, we currently have what I believe is the 5th largest economy in the world based on GDP. Texas apparently beats Russia in GDP making it number 9, maybe 10. What a spectacle! 

Edited by Cenzonico
Its 5th, thanks Hollywood, Thanks Silicon!
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Just now, Cenzonico said:

Ah yes, an Independent California, we currently have what I believe is the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world based on GDP. Texas apparently beats Russia in GDP making it number 9, maybe 10. What a spectacle! 

But, no doubt, causing the remaining U.S. to drop SIGNIFICANTLY below each of China and the EU...

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39 minutes ago, Patine said:

But, no doubt, causing the remaining U.S. to drop SIGNIFICANTLY below each of China and the EU...

Who cares? What matters is PCI, not GDP.

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Would you rather live in Singapore $105K GDP (PPP) per capita (3rd/185), or China 21K (67/185). It doesn't really matter that China' GDP is bigger than Singapore's.

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As long as the "One Nation" set of Tories are in power, there will not be any further referendum regarding Scottish independence.  I would consider that a safe prediction.

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3 hours ago, Patine said:

What about Texas and California? Would the U.S. let more than 1/3 of their total GDP walk-away amicably?

A quick reflection on US history during the time period of 1861-1865 should be able to answer this question easily.  Secession was never recognized as a legal concept in the US, if my memory is correct.

3 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

Ah yes, an Independent California, we currently have what I believe is the 5th largest economy in the world based on GDP. Texas apparently beats Russia in GDP making it number 9, maybe 10. What a spectacle! 

I personally believe that neither California or Texas would be able to survive as independent nations in the modern world.  It is a whole different ball game trying to act as a sovereign nation compared to just acting as a state in part of a union.  Expenditures would go up easily when considering tariffs that would be enacted, costs of maintaining diplomatic missions, no federal government to receive support from, cost of maintaining a standing military force, infrastructure etc.  Both would have no choice but to remain in the US sphere in terms of international policy, military and law enforcement cooperation, etc anyways.  A hard border with the other states would not be good in the long term for them.

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6 hours ago, Patine said:

What about Texas and California? Would the U.S. let more than 1/3 of their total GDP walk-away amicably?

If California wants to go, I'd gladly let them. In that case, I'd expect some business to shift out of California and into other places in the US (lessening the blow that would occur).

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