Jump to content
270soft Forum
Reagan04

Will Trump Drop out?

Will Trump Drop Out before the General Election?  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Trump Drop Out before the General Election?



Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Doctor Donald von Doom - I like it!

*rolls eyes*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Patine said:

*rolls eyes*

Loved Fantastic Four when I was a kid. Perhaps equivalent in this case is The Squad? Alas, what does that make Biden?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Loved Fantastic Four when I was a kid. Perhaps equivalent in this case is The Squad? Alas, what does that make Biden?

Only one of the Squad endorsed Biden. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Only one of the Squad endorsed Biden. 

Actually, Biden makes a fit with Mr. Fantastic, and he's pretty elastic on his policy positions. We know his running mate will be a woman, so there's Invisible Woman. AOC as the Torch (Biden has appointed her for climate change), now just need The Thing ... Hmmm ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Actually, Biden makes a fit with Mr. Fantastic, and he's pretty elastic on his policy positions. We know his running mate will be a woman, so there's Invisible Woman. AOC as the Torch (Biden has appointed her for climate change), now just need The Thing ... Hmmm ...

Pelosi?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, admin_270 said:

😬

Here are possible Things -- I assume a Thing would have to be very aggressive:

  • Pelosi
  • Sanders
  • Schiff
  • Nadler
  • George Conway (Kellyanne's anti-Trumper husband)
  • Warren
  • Harris
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

😬

 

41 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Here are possible Things -- I assume a Thing would have to be very aggressive:

  • Pelosi
  • Sanders
  • Schiff
  • Nadler
  • George Conway (Kellyanne's anti-Trumper husband)
  • Warren
  • Harris

Please, don't make a meal of a throwaway comment of mine. I implore you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Here are possible Things -- I assume a Thing would have to be very aggressive:

  • Pelosi
  • Sanders
  • Schiff
  • Nadler
  • George Conway (Kellyanne's anti-Trumper husband)
  • Warren
  • Harris

Conway, Warren or Harris for certain. The last two especially if they get the nod for VP

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Conway, Warren or Harris for certain. The last two especially if they get the nod for VP

Now, if only Conway got the VP nod, we’d have the most cursed timeline... 😛

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Now, if only Conway got the VP nod, we’d have the most cursed timeline... 😛

"Things can ALWAYS get worse," Murphy's Law.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Patine said:

"Things can ALWAYS get worse," Murphy's Law.

Murphy's law is actually along the lines of "anything that can go wrong, will." 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Murphy's law is actually along the lines of "anything that can go wrong, will." 

Like the Golden Rule, it has been worded a number of similar and comparable ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Patine said:

Like the Golden Rule, it has been worded a number of similar and comparable ways.

Well...yes...but no...

 

However, the humor in you getting Murphy's law wrong when it's about anything with the potential to go wrong going wrong is not lost on me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

James Carville made another prediction:

James Carville told MSNBC on Thursday that he believes there's a “significant chance” that President Trump will drop out of the presidential race against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“I think there is a significant chance he doesn’t run,” Carville told "Morning Joe" on Thursday. “This thing is going so poorly. He’s so far back. It doesn’t make much sense for him to run.”

Carville, the longtime Democratic strategist, also said he believes that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other top Republicans will turn on Trump after Labor Day if he stays in the race.

"This is the great ‘Moscow Mitch’ strategy. After Labor Day, we’re going to turn on him. That’s really going to work,” a sardonic Carville said.

Carville has been off before with such predictions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

James Carville made another prediction:

James Carville told MSNBC on Thursday that he believes there's a “significant chance” that President Trump will drop out of the presidential race against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“I think there is a significant chance he doesn’t run,” Carville told "Morning Joe" on Thursday. “This thing is going so poorly. He’s so far back. It doesn’t make much sense for him to run.”

Carville, the longtime Democratic strategist, also said he believes that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other top Republicans will turn on Trump after Labor Day if he stays in the race.

"This is the great ‘Moscow Mitch’ strategy. After Labor Day, we’re going to turn on him. That’s really going to work,” a sardonic Carville said.

Carville has been off before with such predictions.

I don't see this happening. It seems like this was mentioned in 2016 too (and we all know how that turned out). However, I do agree with his assessment that Establishment Republicans have more power than what the public may see. They pulled a similar move to eventually outmaneuver and undermine the Tea Party movement around the beginning of the 2010 decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

James Carville made another prediction:

James Carville told MSNBC on Thursday that he believes there's a “significant chance” that President Trump will drop out of the presidential race against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“I think there is a significant chance he doesn’t run,” Carville told "Morning Joe" on Thursday. “This thing is going so poorly. He’s so far back. It doesn’t make much sense for him to run.”

Carville, the longtime Democratic strategist, also said he believes that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other top Republicans will turn on Trump after Labor Day if he stays in the race.

"This is the great ‘Moscow Mitch’ strategy. After Labor Day, we’re going to turn on him. That’s really going to work,” a sardonic Carville said.

Carville has been off before with such predictions.

Didn't watch the interview, but as Carville says, it doesn't make sense for McConnell to turn on Trump in September. He would have to do so ASAP.

My response to the "drop out" claim would be "When?" Why would dropping out in October be less of a loss than simply losing the election - it would be worse for Trump.

Again, more deja vu re 2016.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

June economic numbers are pretty good. If U.S. keeps this up may be back to pre-COVID-19 numbers by Nov.

Are you talking about the numbers released today? I was reading that they didn't take into account the recent surge in cases (virus spikes) and more recent shutdowns. Also, what trajectory (graph) are you looking at that shows that it is even possible for the economic numbers to get back to pre-Covid by Nov? That seems naively optimistic. Economists are thinking it won't be back to pre-Covid until 2021 or 2022. 

Here's some links that suggest a slower recovery:

 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/05/04/the-abcs-of-the-post-covid-economic-recovery/

https://www.joc.com/trucking-logistics/truckload-freight/economy-will-not-return-pre-covid-levels-until-mid-2021-ata_20200608.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261033/US-economy-return-pre-COVID-19-levels-late-2021-says-Bank-America-CEO.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-us-economys-recovery-from-the-coronavirus-is-likely-to-be-long-and-painful-2020-04-22

Overall, I think we're going to see bumpy improvement. Improvements perforated by virus spikes. I don't see how the economy gets back to the January economy in only 4 months. I think this economy is also going to hurt President Biden as well, who will suffer in the midterms because of this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I was reading that they didn't take into account the recent surge in cases (virus spikes) and more recent shutdowns

I haven't looked in detail - they are supposed to be June numbers, so should in theory take into account developments up until 2 days ago.

The COVID-19 situation is not very clear, and at this point it seems reasonable to me it could go in a variety of directions. We'll see.

DOW Jones has a ways to go, but it's plausible to me it will get back to 29K+ territory by Nov.

Unemployment rate dropped 2.2% in June to 11.1%, still a long way to go to 3.5% but if it maintained something like that pace would get back to around 4% by Nov.

I think a significant part is the trajectory, though, not just the absolute numbers. If the economy continues to improve going into Nov., that will probably help Trump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW, economists don't really know what's going to happen. Any economic prediction of an unprecedented situation like this should be taken with a big grain of salt, IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, admin_270 said:

I haven't looked in detail - they are supposed to be June numbers, so should in theory take into account developments up until 2 days ago.

The COVID-19 situation is not very clear, and at this point it seems reasonable to me it could go in a variety of directions. We'll see.

DOW Jones has a ways to go, but it's plausible to me it will get back to 29K+ territory by Nov.

Unemployment rate dropped 2.2% in June to 11.1%, still a long way to go to 3.5% but if it maintained something like that pace would get back to around 4% by Nov.

I think a significant part is the trajectory, though, not just the absolute numbers. If the economy continues to improve going into Nov., that will probably help Trump.

Obviously, it will help him, but will it be enough. He's currently polling so low in every battleground state, favorability, and in Covid response polls that it looks like he's going to need a near-full recovery to be competitive. The election was already a tossup even before Covid hit, when the economy was going well for him. 

Considering the fact he isn't currently competitive (if the election were held today), does a 50% recovery by November make him competitive? Does he need 75%? Does he need 100%? Considering he wasn't doing well for an incumbent before Covid, does he need 125% recovery? 

My guess is he needs 75% recovery at the least to have the race down to where WI, MI, PA or just FL decide the election. At 100% recovery, I think he can get it back to where Democrats need to win WI, MI, and PA to win the election. This assumes FL is a lock for Trump at 100% recovery. 

Then there's the factor Obama faced in 2012. The economy was recovering, but it didn't feel like a recovery. Unemployment had fallen but the new jobs were often crap jobs since it was still hard to get a good job for whatever reason. Basically, for June, are the new jobs primarily people gaining their old jobs back or are they getting new jobs? If new, are they better jobs or worse jobs? If their old jobs, are they part-time now? Are the new jobs part-time? Etc.  Lots of factors that might make "returning to pre-Covid numbers" difficult.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

BTW, economists don't really know what's going to happen. Any economic prediction of an unprecedented situation like this should be taken with a big grain of salt, IMHO.

Certainly, but they'll probably have a more or less confident idea of whether or not an economy can completely recover in only 4 months. I think the main debate is whether it recovers in 2021 or 2022.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Obviously, it will help him, but will it be enough. He's currently polling so low in every battleground state, favorability, and in Covid response polls that it looks like he's going to need a near-full recovery to be competitive. The election was already a tossup even before Covid hit, when the economy was going well for him. 

Considering the fact he isn't currently competitive (if the election were held today), does a 50% recovery by November make him competitive? Does he need 75%? Does he need 100%? Considering he wasn't doing well for an incumbent before Covid, does he need 125% recovery? 

My guess is he needs 75% recovery at the least to have the race down to where WI, MI, PA or just FL decide the election. At 100% recovery, I think he can get it back to where Democrats need to win WI, MI, and PA to win the election. This assumes FL is a lock for Trump at 100% recovery. 

Then there's the factor Obama faced in 2012. The economy was recovering, but it didn't feel like a recovery. Unemployment had fallen but the new jobs were often crap jobs since it was still hard to get a good job for whatever reason. Basically, for June, are the new jobs primarily people gaining their old jobs back or are they getting new jobs? If new, are they better jobs or worse jobs? If their old jobs, are they part-time now? Are the new jobs part-time? Etc.  Lots of factors that might make "returning to pre-Covid numbers" difficult.

Ya, lots of specifics for the economic data that are relevant that I don't know about. Might very well be he needs a 125% recovery by Nov. No idea, TBH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...