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vcczar

Where Trump and Biden are already polling over 50%

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Here are the states that have enough polls to show where Biden and Trump are currently averaging over 50% in the popular vote. With only 4 months left it will be exceedingly difficult for any candidate to flip a state where their opponent already has 50% of the vote on average. Why is this? Here are three reasons:

  1. Voters that are going to flip from Biden to Trump or Trump to Biden are very few. 
  2. The number of undecided voters aren't high enough to make up for the gap of the losing candidate. 
  3. Some of those undecided voters will vote 3rd party. 
  4. Don't expect any significant number of those currently supporting Trump or Biden to vote for either of the two weak and unknown 3rd party candidates. 
  5. It is unlikely that in 4 months--not very much time at all--that the Covid situation or Recession situation will take a turn drastically one way or the other. Recovery will be slow enough that Biden will blame Trump on the slow recovery and Trump will claim that it would have been slower under Biden. We won't really see votes shift very much. 

This said, Trump has the biggest uphill battle for reelection since Jimmy Carter in 1980. Trump's path--based of a tremendous lack of support and approval--is much more difficult than Bush I's. The one thing Trump has in his favor is that politics and parties are much more partisan, which means Trump will have more guaranteed support than Carter or Bush I had. However, it also means Biden will have more guaranteed support. In short, the lines are pretty much drawn. 

Here are two things that are more certain than not:

  1. Joe Biden will win the popular vote. 
  2. Joe Biden will be the frontrunner headed into election day, barring the very unlikely chance of a drastic change in Covid or recession going in favor of Trump. If the map looks like this in two to three months, then one could proclaim a Biden victory with some confidence. 

Trump has two things in his favor:

  1. Trump's base enthusiasm is higher than Biden's base enthusiasm. Biden might be +9, but how much of this +9 will vote compared to how many of Trump's -9 will vote?
  2. Covid has decreased voter registration, will decreased registering college students, and Trump is working against mail-in-ballots, and some states are reducing polling stations. This sort of direct or indirect voter suppression is believed to help Trump. 

[Note: Biden is already averaging over 50.7% of the popular vote to Trump's 41.0%]

Biden has two things in his favor that may make up for the two things in Trump's favor:

  1. Biden might have a less enthusiastic base, but polls show he clearly has a larger umbrella and that he's been consistent in the polls in keeping this umbrella (Something H Clinton wasn't). He's going in with more soldiers. 
  2. Biden's favorability is much higher than Trump's, which probably accounts for the point above. Hillary Clinton was always as unfavorable as Trump. Part of this favorability is Biden's empathy, whether sincere or not. He seems like he cares; Trump does not seem like he cares. This is what helped Bill Clinton beat Bush I. It is hard to discern whether or not the Trump Presidency has been for the people or for Trump himself. Trump rarely makes mention of the economic and physical suffering of Covid. In fact, he makes light of it and the efforts to contain it consistently. Biden does not. So long as Covid exists, so long is Trump doomed. Trump is now trying to suppress testing on Covid cases the same way he want to suppress a vote (mail in voting, even though he admits to doing mail-in-voting). 

Here are where the candidates are up by 50% or more on average:

Trump States:

  • KY: 55.6%
  • AL: 54.5
  • TN: 51.5
  • KS: 50.5

Biden States: 

  • CA: 61.2%
  • NY 59.3
  • WA: 58.7
  • NJ: 56.3
  • CO: 54.6
  • VA: 50.9
  • PA: 50.5
  • MI: 50.4
  • NH: 50.4
  • WI: 50.2

States that surprisingly don't have 50% support for Trump, but where Trump is leading:

  • MO, SC, UT

Based off average polls, the map looks like this for November, barring drastic changed (i.e. Covid ends soon and economy surges or Covid gets significantly worse and economy tanks--neither which are likely). Even with 166 EV states with no one averaging 50% of the vote, Biden is already polling victory with 272. 

 gAlv9.png

 

 

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I've been interested in Utah for a while.  Romney could really lead that state to back Biden over Trump, if he is so inclined.  And he actually might be.  We'll see.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I've been interested in Utah for a while.  Romney could really lead that state to back Biden over Trump, if he is so inclined.  And he actually might be.  We'll see.

Romney would need Mike Lee too. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Romney would need Mike Lee too. 

Maybe.  Romney strikes me as the truest "favorite son" that currently exists -- even though he was Governor of a different state.

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4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Maybe.  Romney strikes me as the truest "favorite son" that currently exists -- even though he was Governor of a different state.

Let's hope. 

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6 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Maybe.  Romney strikes me as the truest "favorite son" that currently exists -- even though he was Governor of a different state.

 

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Let's hope. 

Ah, wonderful. Mr. Flip-flop joining the biggest war criminal of the 21st Century and biggest single uppender and violator of the U.S. Constitution to ever be in the White House in terms of Republican endorsers for Biden over Trump. And probably now, with his new book, "the man who wanted to bomb Iran to dust on a Bay of Tonkin or Nueces Strip style flimsy and contrived casus belli, but had his leash pulled - and Trump alleged insulted his mustache." What great and glorious "moral" backing for a new and bold move forward for a large voting demographic Biden's depending on who are already sick of an ominous, arrogant, detached, self-serving, militant, unaccountable, unempathic, secretive, and corrupt edifice of government as is... :S

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25 minutes ago, Patine said:

 

Ah, wonderful. Mr. Flip-flop joining the biggest war criminal of the 21st Century and biggest single uppender and violator of the U.S. Constitution to ever be in the White House in terms of Republican endorsers for Biden over Trump. And probably now, with his new book, "the man who wanted to bomb Iran to dust on a Bay of Tonkin or Nueces Strip style flimsy and contrived casus belli, but had his leash pulled - and Trump alleged insulted his mustache." What great and glorious "moral" backing for a new and bold move forward for a large voting demographic Biden's depending on who are already sick of an ominous, arrogant, detached, self-serving, militant, unaccountable, unempathic, secretive, and corrupt edifice of government as is... :S

It wasn’t until you said “mustache” that I had any idea at all what you were trying to say.

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