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vcczar

2020 General Election Prediction (June 24)

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15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If Biden's advisors haven't read Sun Tzu's Art of War (where Art of the Deal gets its name), they should, because Trump has.

You think Trump has actually read the book? I could see him instinctively aligning with it, but I'd be shocked if he actually read it. 

I've read it a few times--different translations. I also read a book that compiled various Chinese arts of war. The only real Western analogies are books by Clauswitz and Jomini, both which I've read. What's odd is how historically ill-read Americans in the military have been with this material. Ho Chi Minh had read all of these and had his generals read these. The US military during the Vietnam War were mostly unread in these. During the US Civil War, I was shocked to learn that almost all of the US generals--even the West Pointers--hadn't read Clauswitz or Jomini (former written in German and latter in French and Russian). However, three generals were Clauswitzian without knowing it: Grant, Sherman, Jackson. I could see an argument that Trump is like Sun Tzu without knowing it; however, I'd be shocked if he read it. He doesn't seem to read. 

In regards to your post, however, I doubt Biden's team are just going to sit there or naively maneuver and let Trump go all Sun Tzu on them, especially since they lost the last election. My guess is that the Democrats have things in hiding and stored up to unleash on Trump in October. I do think Trump will play dirtier, but I don't think even that would flip the election in his favor if the map looks like it does now in two months. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

You think Trump has actually read the book? I could see him instinctively aligning with it, but I'd be shocked if he actually read it.

Yes, big in business circles in the 80s and 90s. He himself has publicly quoted it.

Remember: how did Trump win in 2016? He had to win the midwest without the H. Clinton team realizing what was happening and so effectively countering. How did he pull that off? You yourself were shocked, were you not?

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak" I think someone said a few thousand years ago.

5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

My guess is that the Democrats have things in hiding and stored up to unleash on Trump in October.

Of course! We shall see how it all plays out.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Remember: how did Trump win in 2016? He had to win the midwest without the H. Clinton team realizing what was happening and so effectively countering. How did he pull that off? You yourself were shocked, were you not?

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak" I think someone said a few thousand years ago.

I think a lot of this was Clinton's Art of War backfiring. She was advised to move IA foot soldiers to Wisconsin, but decided to keep them in IA to make it appear she was strong in WI. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think a lot of this was Clinton's Art of War backfiring. She was advised to move IA foot soldiers to Wisconsin, but decided to keep them in IA to make it appear she was strong in WI. 

Yes, might be some of that as well. 😀

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Yes, might be some of that as well. 😀

How much "Praise-Trump Kool-Aid," do you down everyday to get your laughably sycophanitcal posts on the man, if I may ask?

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29 minutes ago, Patine said:

How much "Praise-Trump Kool-Aid," do you down everyday to get your laughably sycophanitcal posts on the man, if I may ask?

Specifics, my dear man, specifics. What do you disagree with in particular and why? That Trump has read The Art of War?

If you think Trump's an idiot, and couldn't possible absorb and then utilize precepts from Sun Tzu's work, then perhaps you find it more plausible that Bannon is an acolyte of Sun Tzu as well.

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Specifics, my dear man, specifics. What do you disagree with in particular and why? That Trump has read The Art of War?

If you think Trump's an idiot, and couldn't possible absorb and then utilize precepts from Sun Tzu's work, then perhaps you find it more plausible that Bannon is an acolyte of Sun Tzu as well.

It's not that I think Trump is an idiot. It's just that I don't see the "shining quality and talent," he has that you. You (inexplicably) see a leader, an ideologue, and a skilled and cunning mover of society and firm hand on the tiller. I, myself, do see a definite quality and talent - one that was quite obvious long before he ever meant into politics. I see a showman, a con artist, swindler, a schuyster, a modern political "political medicine show huckster." And you have fallen for his scam lock, stock, and barrel. "Art of the Deal," (which was ghostwritten, by the way, like all of his books) as a play on "Art of War," also brings a smarmy used-car-salesman image to mind that is not present in Sun Tzu's work.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

You (inexplicably) see a leader, an ideologue, and a skilled and cunning mover of society and firm hand on the tiller.

He's obviously a leader. The question is whether he's a successful one or not. But in business and now in politics, he has succeeded far beyond most people in terms of personal ambition.

I have never said Trump is an ideologue. Cunning, yes. But I've never said he's a 'cunning mover of society' or whatever you're trying to describe the in third part of your sentence.  

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4 minutes ago, Patine said:

I see a showman, a con artist, swindler, a schuyster, a modern political "political medicine show huckster." And you have fallen for his scam lock, stock, and barrel.

Heh. Trump is definitely a showman. Of course! He himself would say so. Most of the things people criticize him for, he himself states. For example, his constant exaggeration, which is a form of lying. He calls it 'truthful hyperbole', and he uses it for various effects.

The big question is whether his political program is a good or bad one. If you think on the whole it's a bad one, then he's a con artist. If it's a good one, he's simply getting results.

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The only way Trump could possibly win would be that Biden be awfull during the campaign.

Biden has only to be medium to win the presidency.

We do not talk about it a lot because the Trump surprise of 2016 hides it, but the polling average of Trump is WORSE than the polling average of John McCain back in 2008.

Clinton-Trump polls were favorable for the Democrats but never at this point, back in 2016 we talked about an average of 2/3 points lead, not 10.

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1 hour ago, RI Democrat said:

If Biden wins over 300 electoral votes, I think he also takes Nebraska's 2nd and its one electoral vote.

As someone who lives in the district I think Eastman will win the congressional seat and Trump will win the electoral vote.

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3 hours ago, Edouard said:

The only way Trump could possibly win would be that Biden be awfull during the campaign.

Maybe, but that's also Biden's problem. Throughout this entire election season, he's been absolutely terrible. The DNC would be smart to use the virus to avoid a debate between him and Trump because Biden would get squashed.

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11 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Maybe, but that's also Biden's problem. Throughout this entire election season, he's been absolutely terrible. The DNC would be smart to use the virus to avoid a debate between him and Trump because Biden would get squashed.

That's sound more like an opinion than a fact. There's also been a lot of things he's done that are better than what Trump has done in many people's eyes. Some of it is rather simple---such as wearing a mask--a simple show of leadership, empathy, compassion. I don't think people care too much about his gaffes so long as his actions aren't as bad. Naturally, if any convincing sex scandals come out, then this might rock his support somewhat. However, he is somewhat helped by his opponent being a far worse person. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

That's sound more like an opinion than a fact. There's also been a lot of things he's done that are better than what Trump has done in many people's eyes. Some of it is rather simple---such as wearing a mask--a simple show of leadership, empathy, compassion. I don't think people care too much about his gaffes so long as his actions aren't as bad. Naturally, if any convincing sex scandals come out, then this might rock his support somewhat. However, he is somewhat helped by his opponent being a far worse person. 

I mean it is an opinion. However, the vast majority of people that I know who are involved in politics (from around the political spectrum) agree on that. There's a reason his past candidacies have gone nowhere. In fact, it appears the DNC had to make some behind the scenes moves in order to save him during the primary process.

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17 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Throughout this entire election season, he's been absolutely terrible.

Ya - Biden hasn't really been running a stellar campaign to this point. His strength has been limiting exposure and not espousing too many far left ideas.

 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Ya - Biden hasn't really been running a stellar campaign to this point. His strength has been limiting exposure and not espousing too many far left ideas.

 

Plus he has the anti-Trump card. Say what you want about Trump's followers having a cultish mentality, but the reverse (the anti-Trumpers) is just as true.

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Trump isn't an especially good debater either, though - he tends to ramble, and at least in the first debate with Hillary, he acted like a real jerk interrupting all the time. I don't see either of them as all that likely to come up with a game-changing moment in the debates.

Mostly I just want to see Biden call something Trump says "malarkey."

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3 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

Trump isn't an especially good debater either, though - he tends to ramble, and at least in the first debate with Hillary, he acted like a real jerk interrupting all the time. I don't see either of them as all that likely to come up with a game-changing moment in the debates.

Mostly I just want to see Biden call something Trump says "malarkey."

Maybe not in a formal sense; however, the debates helped Trump more than Hillary in 2016 because of his memorable moments. Granted, he did leave a number of opportunities on the table.

As for rambling on, that does tend to happen, but Trump is much better at sounding somewhat coherent while rambling than Biden does (who also rambles on a lot). One thing is for such though, these debates won't be shown in any debate class in the future.

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1 minute ago, jvikings1 said:

Maybe not in a formal sense; however, the debates helped Trump more than Hillary in 2016 because of his memorable moments. Granted, he did leave a number of opportunities on the table.

As for rambling on, that does tend to happen, but Trump is much better at sounding somewhat coherent while rambling than Biden does (who also rambles on a lot). One thing is for such though, these debates won't be shown in any debate class in the future.

Biden was actually a very solid, and I thought strong, debater in the 2008 Democratic primary (first time I really heard him speak) and in the 2012 VP debate vs. Paul Ryan. He has strong moments. He had strong moments in the debates this election. He's much better in speeches and in debates that allow for lengthier answers. I don't think he's very good when he needs to be succinct. 

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2 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

Maybe not in a formal sense; however, the debates helped Trump more than Hillary in 2016 because of his memorable moments. Granted, he did leave a number of opportunities on the table.

As for rambling on, that does tend to happen, but Trump is much better at sounding somewhat coherent while rambling than Biden does (who also rambles on a lot). One thing is for such though, these debates won't be shown in any debate class in the future.

I'd chalk that up to a bad, uninformed, sensationalist, emotion-driven, and long-debunked-myth-and-bad-stereotyped-believing audience of the debates than any quality of either Trump or Clinton during those debates, frankly...

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11 hours ago, Patine said:

I'd chalk that up to a bad, uninformed, sensationalist, emotion-driven, and long-debunked-myth-and-bad-stereotyped-believing audience of the debates than any quality of either Trump or Clinton during those debates, frankly...

I would tend to agree. Though I can't say that it'll be any different this time around. In fact, it might be even worse than 2016.

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