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vcczar

2020 General Election Prediction (June 24)

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Here's my prediction for the General Election:

Covid is still significant until about October 1st, after which the economy shows signs of some recovery. However, it's too little too late for Trump. Most of the voters are appauled by Trump's handling of the crises and a general lack of empathy during a time that needs an empathetic president, such as a Joe Biden. Biden ends up proving he's the right person at the right time, at least in this. Regardless, Trump is able to narrow the gap somewhat in the last month as he claims credit for the country turning the corner on the virus and on the recovery. But, as said, too little too late and Trump fatigue is at an all time high. His novelty has worn off. 

Presidential Election: jbzz2.png

US Senate: MlGrdq.png

US House: 35pAkva.png

Governors: z7BK.png

 

 

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We'll see! 😀

I'm glad I'm not in the prediction business, but my prediction re the Presidency remains unchanged at 80% Trump.

The House and Senate are more interesting questions to me, because even if Trump wins the Presidency, if he doesn't win back the House it will still be a (perhaps major) thorn in his side.

If he loses the Senate as well, he's going to have a rough 2-4 years.

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I don't see North Carolina or Florida going Democrat this time around (for either president or senate).

In the house, I think you are being a little generous for Democrats in seats flipped during the mid-terms (such as SC-1, UT-4, and ME-2 [especially if it goes Trump]) 

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38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

We'll see! 😀

I'm glad I'm not in the prediction business, but my prediction re the Presidency remains unchanged at 80% Trump.

The House and Senate are more interesting questions to me, because even if Trump wins the Presidency, if he doesn't win back the House it will still be a (perhaps major) thorn in his side.

If he loses the Senate as well, he's going to have a rough 2-4 years.

80%? You mean higher than FDR got in 1936 by about 15%? Really? This is Trump in the U.S., not Putin in Russia - or had you forgotten?

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

80%? You mean higher than FDR got in 1936 by about 15%? Really? This is Trump in the U.S., not Putin in Russia - or had you forgotten?

80% chance he'll win, my dear man. FDR in 1936 would be 100%. 😉

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The only thing I would change right now is giving Florida to Trump. I also think there is a chance dems take one of the senate seats in Georgia. 

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8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

80% chance he'll win, my dear man. FDR in 1936 would be 100%. 😉

For a minute I thought was the rough popular vote you were predicting. :P

That being said, I'm doubting you're prediction immensely. Trump has become a laughing stock, and embarrassment, a convenient scapegoat, a symbol of hate and to vent frustration and vitriol, and seen as watermark for a rise of increased bigotry. And a notable number who were hoodwinked and deceived into voting for him in 2016 are regretting it. And, Joe "the Bland Mannequin" Biden cleverly seems convincing enough to disarm those Independents and Trump-regretters and Never-Trumpers as not being tied too much to Social Progressive perceived "excess," while being "not" Trump enough to keep the further left-wing Democratic base. I see your 80% number as complete wistful and out-of-touch nonsense.

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31 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I don't see North Carolina or Florida going Democrat this time around (for either president or senate).

In the house, I think you are being a little generous for Democrats in seats flipped during the mid-terms (such as SC-1, UT-4, and ME-2 [especially if it goes Trump]) 

Maine 2 is now ranked choice - which should help Dems.

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

We'll see! 😀

I'm glad I'm not in the prediction business, but my prediction re the Presidency remains unchanged at 80% Trump.

The House and Senate are more interesting questions to me, because even if Trump wins the Presidency, if he doesn't win back the House it will still be a (perhaps major) thorn in his side.

If he loses the Senate as well, he's going to have a rough 2-4 years.

What would you have put Obama’s chances as at this time of the year in 2012? 

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

Maine 2 is now ranked choice - which should help Dems.

I know. But if Trump wins the district, it'll be a major boost to the Republican (probably Eric Brakey).

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

What would you have put Obama’s chances as at this time of the year in 2012? 

No idea. I can't remember what things were like back then. I know the polls were pretty tight moving into the final stretch, but that's about it.

I remember Obama doing surprisingly poor in the 1st debate, but then coming back and doing better in the 2nd and 3rd ones.

 

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4 hours ago, Patine said:

For a minute I thought was the rough popular vote you were predicting. :P

That being said, I'm doubting you're prediction immensely. Trump has become a laughing stock, and embarrassment, a convenient scapegoat, a symbol of hate and to vent frustration and vitriol, and seen as watermark for a rise of increased bigotry. And a notable number who were hoodwinked and deceived into voting for him in 2016 are regretting it. And, Joe "the Bland Mannequin" Biden cleverly seems convincing enough to disarm those Independents and Trump-regretters and Never-Trumpers as not being tied too much to Social Progressive perceived "excess," while being "not" Trump enough to keep the further left-wing Democratic base. I see your 80% number as complete wistful and out-of-touch nonsense.

Could all be true. I'll put Patine down as Trump < 50% at this point.

I expect my number to either go to 100 or 0 as we approach Nov.

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Few thoughts from what I have observed :

Presidential :

- As others have commented above, I believe that Florida and North Carolina are more reddish than indicated here.  I have noticed that Florida in particular continues to trend R more and more in each coming election; 2018 was a solid year for Republicans there, especially in the midst of the Democratic victories that occurred elsewhere.

- I am interested to see what happens in Michigan, particularly as a result of Governor Whitmer's very unpopular lockdowns.  There is already a recall petition going around, and a small part of me wonders whether there will potentially be a backlash against Biden because of this.

- Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are all tossups in my mind.  Given its political history, I would dare to say that the R's may start at a small advantage in Arizona.  McSally was weak candidate in 2018 (and even then it was close), while Ducey did well in his race.  Not sure how those results will translate in 2020 for the Presidential race.

- Will watch Minnesota as well, interesting that the Trump factor turned this state purple in 2016.  One can only wonder what effect the riots and destruction following George Floyd's death will have on this state.  If voter turnout is low in Minneapolis, this state could have the potential to flip in my mind.

Senatorial :

- Biggest disagreement is Montana; running to represent a state in the US Senate is a completely different horse than running for the governorship. Governor Bullock is a very strong candidate no doubt, but the fact that we are in a Presidential election year in a state where turnout for President Trump will more than likely be high gives me doubts about his odds.  Straight ticket voting is becoming increasingly more common in our hyper-partisan times; that D next to his name will hurt more than it helps for the seat he is running for.

- North Carolina and Maine are tossups in my mind.  Senator Collins holds the incumbency advantage, but we will see if she can retain her seat.  If North Carolina votes Trump in the Presidential, I feel better about Senator Tillis's chances as well.  Still a slight red hue in NC to start with anyways.

Gubernatorial :

- My only disagreement is Montana.  Open seat in a deep red state, check.  Republican has not held the office for a while, check.  Presidential election year with straight ticket voting a likely occurrence, check.  I will put my money on the red horse for this one.

House :

I need to get some sleep, I have a busy morning ahead of me lol.

In my mind, it is still way too early to project in any form of serious estimation what the results of the November 2020 elections will be for the most part.  A lot can change in the next 4.5 months, but these are my predictions for now :

Presidential : 50/50.  2016 should have been a lesson to never count a candidate out before the final votes are tallied.  Remember Dewey vs Truman as well if you want a more historical example.  Still way too early, a lot depends on the state of the economy come fall.

Senate : I personally favour the R's to hold the Senate for the simple fact that the D's need a lot more cards to fall their way for them to obtain control as opposed for the R's to retain control.  The D's are already down one in Doug Jones (AL), but they will more than likely make up for it with Gardener (CO).  Arizona leans D in my mind since they have an excellent candidate in Mark Kelly, but they still need to win Maine and North Carolina in order to make it 50-50 (and potentially have the VP tiebreaker should they win the Presidency).  All the R's need to do is hold their ground in one state.  Once again, I feel safe saying that the R's are favoured in Montana personally.

House : Not going to argue seat by seat now, I need some sleep but it will likely remain in D hands.  I think the R's have the opportunity to pickup a few seats, but their path to a majority is narrow.  Opposite to the Senate, they need a lot more cards to fall in their way compared to the D's.

 

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43 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

No idea. I can't remember what things were like back then. I know the polls were pretty tight moving into the final stretch, but that's about it.

I remember Obama doing surprisingly poor in the 1st debate, but then coming back and doing better in the 2nd and 3rd ones.

 

He was polling a lot better than Trump is now (+3 vs Romney), also had a higher average approval (47%), lower unemployment, and an economy going slightly upward, and no pandemic. 

I’m just curious if this would be higher or lower than your projection for Trump being 80% likely to be re-elected, which is the highest odds I’ve seen anyone give for Trump in 2020. 

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I’m just curious if this would be higher or lower than your projection for Trump being 80% likely to be re-elected, which is the highest odds I’ve seen anyone give for Trump in 2020.

My Trump % is to a significant extent based on my read of Trump, not current polling and so on.

Obama in June of 2012 - I have no idea. Incumbent, check. Economy not doing too badly, check. Opponent who wasn't a very good politician, check.

But I really don't know. Maybe 60% Obama?

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If his poll numbers don't improve by late August, there's a chance Trump rolls into the Republican convention and announces he's not running.  For "health reasons", of course.

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9 hours ago, admin_270 said:

My Trump % is to a significant extent based on my read of Trump, not current polling and so on.

Obama in June of 2012 - I have no idea. Incumbent, check. Economy not doing too badly, check. Opponent who wasn't a very good politician, check.

But I really don't know. Maybe 60% Obama?

How would you define your “read on Trump?” That’s a little vague. 

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1 hour ago, pilight said:

If his poll numbers don't improve by late August, there's a chance Trump rolls into the Republican convention and announces he's not running.  For "health reasons", of course.

I remember people saying the same sort of thing in 2016.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

How would you define your “read on Trump?” That’s a little vague.

His psychology. Extremely competitive and so on. Will do whatever it takes to win, including bending 'soft' rules.

In 2016 he had a significant large part of his own party against him. He was a novice at running in a general election. He had no political experience to refer to.

Yes, Biden is a better politician than H. Clinton - by far, as long as he doesn't have so many 'senior's moments' as to significantly erode trust in his ability to govern.

But Trump has had 3.5 years to plan his re-election. Expect that he has laid various traps for his opponents, used spies to infiltrate Democratic orgs, and so on. If Biden's advisors haven't read Sun Tzu's Art of War (where Art of the Deal gets its name), they should, because Trump has.

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