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vcczar

The Economy Might Not Recover in Time for Trump

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-economists-fear-most-during-this-recovery/

This shows what economists think will happen. Trump basically needs a V-shape, quick recovery. Apparently 0% of the economists think that's going to happen. However, 73% think there will be a sharp partial recovery, but a slow rebound. Covid cases keep rising and this isn't even the 2nd outbreak. I really doubt Trump will see a convincing recovery in 4 months, even with the reverse radical shaped economic projection. The next most likely recovery, at 15%, a swoosh shape, would be even worse for Trump. 

Economists seem to think that recovery will have been reached in 2022, which probably means President Biden will be able to claim recovery by Midterms; although, it's possible it could be longer, which might cost Biden Congress. Biden will have to be FDR-like/LBJ-like active in his first two years. 

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I am not sure if a bad economy on election day really hurts Trump more than Biden. If the economy is bad at election day people might be inclined to vote for the candidate who is more able to get it roaring again. People usually tend to Republicans when it comes to this question.

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54 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I am not sure if a bad economy on election day really hurts Trump more than Biden. If the economy is bad at election day people might be inclined to vote for the candidate who is more able to get it roaring again. People usually tend to Republicans when it comes to this question.

I don’t know...Trumps main argument was that the economy was great. I agree that if there’s a mini bump up around Election Day, it could help him, but I do think if it looks like it does today, it helps Biden. Maybe not because he wins those voters who care more about the economy, but because he narrows that gap.

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14 hours ago, vcczar said:

Covid cases keep rising and this isn't even the 2nd outbreak.

Mortalities attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. on a roughly weekly basis have been dropping since April 21st.

Although there has been a recent increase in weekly documented COVID-19 cases, it's not clear if this is translating into hospitalizations, or whether this is an artifact of increased testing.

So it's not really clear what's happening. If it isn't just an artifact of testing, and begins to pick up steam, you could see states moving back to more restrictive phases, which in turn would put a damper on an economic comeback. If this were to happen, I think that hurts Trump's chances.

If, on the other hand, hospitalizations and mortalities are more or less steady despite re-opening (or even continue to decline), I think that helps Trump's chances.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Mortalities attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. on a roughly weekly basis have been dropping since April 21st.

Although there has been a recent increase in weekly documented COVID-19 cases, it's not clear if this is translating into hospitalizations, or whether this is an artifact of increased testing.

So it's not really clear what's happening. If it isn't just an artifact of testing, and begins to pick up steam, you could see states moving back to more restrictive phases, which in turn would put a damper on an economic comeback. If this were to happen, I think that hurts Trump's chances.

If, on the other hand, hospitalizations and mortalities are more or less steady despite re-opening (or even continue to decline), I think that helps Trump's chances.

Agreed.

Some states it looks like a true rise (i.e. Florida, Arizona, California), others could be just testing. It depends on which one wins out as we go through these next few weeks.

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4 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I am not sure if a bad economy on election day really hurts Trump more than Biden. If the economy is bad at election day people might be inclined to vote for the candidate who is more able to get it roaring again. People usually tend to Republicans when it comes to this question.

Wait? What? 

  1. Hoover, Republican--economy collapses. People elect Democrat FDR
  2. Eisenhower, Republican--late 1950s recession. People elect Democrat JFK---economic boom for both JFK and LBJ. 
  3. Ford, Republican--stagflation. People elect Democrat Carter. 
  4. Carter--unable to reign in stagflation. People pick Republican Reagan. 
  5. GHW Bush---Economic dip. People pick Democrat Clinton. 
  6. GW Bush--Great Recession. People pick Democrat Obama. 

Since the era of Big Government, we've never had a time in which a president or the incumbent president's party has been reelected during a bad economy. If you notice the list above, there is only once instance in which a Republican was selected "to get the economy roaring again." Republicans have been able to take power when the economy was already good or was clearly on the path to being good again (Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush II, and Trump). However, for whatever reason, the economy has had to be saved by Democrats more often than the reverse. #7 will be "7. Trump-- Coronavirus Recession. People pick Democrat Biden." 

The best analogy for a Trump reelection is if Trump can get the recovery clearly on the right path, similar to where Obama was in 2012. This isn't impossibe for him to do, but I think it's unlikely. 4 months is not a lot of time. If the president was currently Hillary Clinton, I'd also think she'd be doomed, so I'm not being biased here. 

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8 minutes ago, vcczar said:

The best analogy for a Trump reelection is if Trump can get the recovery clearly on the right path, similar to where Obama was in 2012. This isn't impossibe for him to do, but I think it's unlikely. 4 months is not a lot of time

May's data was fairly good, compared to April's. The trajectory or momentum might be more important than the absolute position. If so, if there is a continued recovery that is clearly happening, but hasn't reached pre-COVID-19 levels, that might help Trump.

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22 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Some states it looks like a true rise (i.e. Florida, Arizona, California), others could be just testing.

Good point - not just national numbers, but state-by-state, and in particular, swing state numbers.

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Trump will likely blame economic problems on Democrat "overreaction" to Coronavirus, and in some areas, he will get away with it.

Notably though, some states' economic shutdown was actually done by Republican leadership -- such as Ohio, a red-leaning swing state.  It's harder to blame Democrats when it was the Republicans who were making the hard decisions -- and especially when Republican DeWine was moving in the exact opposite direction of Republican Trump.

I won't go so far as to predict Ohio will go blue -- but I'd move it to a toss up whereas pre-COVID I would have put money on red to win.

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17 hours ago, vcczar said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-economists-fear-most-during-this-recovery/

This shows what economists think will happen. Trump basically needs a V-shape, quick recovery. Apparently 0% of the economists think that's going to happen. However, 73% think there will be a sharp partial recovery, but a slow rebound. Covid cases keep rising and this isn't even the 2nd outbreak. I really doubt Trump will see a convincing recovery in 4 months, even with the reverse radical shaped economic projection. The next most likely recovery, at 15%, a swoosh shape, would be even worse for Trump. 

Economists seem to think that recovery will have been reached in 2022, which probably means President Biden will be able to claim recovery by Midterms; although, it's possible it could be longer, which might cost Biden Congress. Biden will have to be FDR-like/LBJ-like active in his first two years. 

Even though it wasn't the COVID-19 crisis, I recall I specifically said last year that pretty much COUNTING ON a good economy for Trump's re-election calculations maybe not the most rational or "safe," bet (but, at the time, it was kickback from price hikes from his out-of-the blue trade wars I was concerned about), and everyone told, "there's just no realistic reason the economic would possibly be bad by November 2020 - no plausible event hitting," - by EVERYONE here, pretty much. I was called an economic "Chicken Little." Well the sky has fallen, and we can't go and tell the King, because he's a useless idiot and in denial...

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

and everyone told, "there's just no realistic reason the economic would possibly be bad by November 2020 - no plausible event hitting," - by EVERYONE here, pretty much.

It always amazes me that there are those who try to definitively predict with, in their mind, 100% certainty how events will unfold months, or even years, into the future.  You would think more people would realize that life can totally be disrupted in a matter of seconds, and projections of the coming times thrown completely out of the window.  9/11, Pearl Harbour, COVID-19, or even Hurricane Dorian in the Caribbean region.

We truly have no clue as to what will happen in the next ~4.5 months before the US Presidential Election is held.  For all we know, COVID-20 may just pop up by then....  I can imagine that President Trump will probably try to point to the fact that this recession was "artificially created" as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and not directly caused by any of his economic policies, should the economy continue to lag at that point.  As mentioned earlier, the effects vary state by state and as such, so will public opinion in all likelihood.  There is still a lot of time before the polls open, we can only wait and see what will happen next.

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