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If Trump loses in 2020, does he run again in 2024?

If Trump loses in 2020, does he run again in 2024?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. If Trump loses in 2020, does he run again in 2024?

    • Yes
      11
    • No
      19


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Perhaps most people think Trump will be done if he loses in 2020. Some think a loss would lead to a repudiation of the Trump movement within the GOP.

Yet, consider the following scenario. Trump loses, but there are widespread claims by Trump supporters of voter fraud, or other illegal actions, which make the difference between winning and losing.

Such a scenario might make it more plausible that Trump would run again in 2024.

Consider also that Trump is fiercely competitive.

Consider also that Biden is almost certainly a 1 term opponent, so it might be an open field in 2024 on the Dem side.

So, what do you think? Would a 2024 run by Trump happen if he lost 2020?

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I think he'd hang over the primaries as a potential candidate, and he'd even make it seem like he might run, maybe hold rallies, things of that nature, but I don't ultimately see him running.

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I think he does if he isn’t mentally or physically handicapped by then. I don’t think he’ll get the nomination. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I think he does if he isn’t mentally or physically handicapped by then. I don’t think he’ll get the nomination. 

I would like to see him run in 2024 to lose. I could see a showdown between him and someone like Nikki Haley, and Ted Cruz.

I could see Trump winning Iowa though, but then losing NH (unlike last time around) I think someone like Larry Hogan running would be very interesting, I almost think him not running in 2020 was to set himself up for 2024 (to not sew division as he is basically a Democrat in Trumps eyes) 

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With his current health, it’s hard to imagine him living long enough to make a serious run in 2024.  He may still be alive, but with only a year or two to go.  

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11 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

With his current health, it’s hard to imagine him living long enough to make a serious run in 2024.  He may still be alive, but with only a year or two to go.  

What are you referring to?

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Perhaps most people think Trump will be done if he loses in 2020. Some think a loss would lead to a repudiation of the Trump movement within the GOP.

Yet, consider the following scenario. Trump loses, but there are widespread claims by Trump supporters of voter fraud, or other illegal actions, which make the difference between winning and losing.

Such a scenario might make it more plausible that Trump would run again in 2024.

Consider also that Trump is fiercely competitive.

Consider also that Biden is almost certainly a 1 term opponent, so it might be an open field in 2024 on the Dem side.

So, what do you think? Would a 2024 run by Trump happen if he lost 2020?

He might be running Third Party/Independent, as the GOP would likely have thrown him under the bus by then, like they did to Nixon in 1974. And it seems the GOP, outside revolving door Cabinet posts and a new noted sycophants in Congress, are growing highly impatient with his eccentric behaviour and public persona. I wouldn't count on him running as a Republican.

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He shouldn't, but assuming he will be alive for it he probably would. Sooo yeah.

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16 hours ago, admin_270 said:

What are you referring to?

He's probably referring to what some doctors have been saying about Trump's mental health as it relates also to physical health. Supposedly, his gait while walking down the lightly sloping ramp is comparable to someone with a declining frontal lobe or someone with early signs of dementia or related age-based mental health issue. Some argue he may have had a stroke at some point. The evidence they use are an increase in slurred speech, propensity to ramble and inability to focus on the key topic, difficulty and sometimes inability to drink a glass of water with one hand, his strange posture when he speaks standing up. Some think he's just on a lot of drugs. They've shown video of both Obama and Biden going up and down that same ramp, and they're gliding up and down. It's not even remotely steep. Trump's grandma steps and his lurching over make it seem steep. Trump also claims he ran the last few steps. That's wasn't running. That was slower than Biden's walk. 

I'm not a doctor, so I'm not going to suppose an extreme here, but we do know that his "official" doctor's report likely incorrect. If they can't get his height accurately for 2020 (Trump claimed he was 6'2" in his younger years. He never became 6'3" until he ran for president, which by 2016, he was 6'1" at tallest). His weight is likely more than advertised. 

I'd say his health is probably somewhere in between the supposed "official" bill of health and what other doctors and mental health experts are saying about a serious, but natural condition. He definitely seems less healthy and less energetic than he did in 2016, but that's to be expected with an obese 74-year-old that only sleeps 4 hours a day. 

I think he could run in 2024 after he loses to Biden, but it isn't going to be pretty. I think the GOP will rally to an anti-Trump candidate quickly and look at this as an opportunity to disown a blight from their history. I think if Trump is polling low before people declare, then he won't jump in, since he doesn't want to be a loser twice in a row. He'll likely consistently talk about running. However, I question whether he'll have the mental or physical capacity to run in 2024 or finish his 2nd term in the very unlikely event he wins reelection. 

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58 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He's probably referring to what some doctors have been saying about Trump's mental health as it relates also to physical health

As you note, he's 74, so I have no problem believing he has age-related issues.

 

59 minutes ago, vcczar said:

propensity to ramble and inability to focus on the key topic

Not sure if this is in reference to something specific, but people have been making this criticism since 2015. Trump has a conversational speaking style usually, and often will make tangential points. From what I've seen, I have a hard time saying it's indicative of something problematic, except that it might be politically fraught with risk because he isn't speaking as scriptedly as some pols.

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19 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

As you note, he's 74, so I have no problem believing he has age-related issues.

 

Not sure if this is in reference to something specific, but people have been making this criticism since 2015. Trump has a conversational speaking style usually, and often will make tangential points. From what I've seen, I have a hard time saying it's indicative of something problematic, except that it might be politically fraught with risk because he isn't speaking as scriptedly as some pols.

It's definitely a norm for him, but some think it's getting worse. This isn't too dissimilar to how Biden is getting worse in his own innate conversational style. Biden was always gaffe-prone. Trump was always off-topic. The Bolton book details cabinet meetings that seem even more tangiential than Trump at press conferences. Apparently, the topic for discussion will be abandoned within a few minutes and Trump will just talk about random un-related things, often about opponents, critics, or re-election. Obviously, those are also important topics to discuss with the cabinet, but you can't help thinking that Trump is wasting their time. Any other president would probably give most of the time to the essential topic, be it farmers, manufacturing, civil rights, or small businesses. 

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1 hour ago, Jayavarman said:

A more believable silly scenario may be one of Trump's kids running in 2024.

Except they don't have any of the campaign traits and behaviours and styles of their father, and they don't come across as vitriolic populists. The point would be lost. As I've said, "Trumpism," is NOT a platform or an ideology, it IS a campaigning and public promotion and reaction style and behaviour, a sub-set of populism, that will likely die when he leaves politics for good. His children will no more be "Trumpists," than Alexandra Mussolini, in politics in Italy, right now, is a National Syndicalist Fascist like her grandfather.

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