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Joe Biden VP poll

Joe Biden VP Poll  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. It seems like these are by far the likely VP choices, as it appears Biden is set to pick a woman of color. Who would be the best pick for Biden if these were his only remaining choices?

    • Sen. Kamala Harris - CA (Name recognition and strong debater; not liked by progressives and not from helpful state)
    • Rep. Val Demings - FL (From important state and would defuse Trump's law & order push since she's a cop; progressives won't like her and no name recognition)
    • Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms - GA (Considered strong speaker and from important state; no name recognition and very inexperienced)
    • Fmr Nat. Sec. Advsr Susan Rice - ME (Familiar with Biden and Obama, experienced; no electoral experience and only a foreign policy specialist)
    • Fmr Gov nominee Stacey Abrams - GA (Dynamic speaker and from an important state; might want the job too much and has limited experience)


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I pick Kamala Harris VERY reluctantly. I think considering Biden's age, that experience matters more than usual. Obama and Trump were too inexperienced. I don't want to risk that again. I think aside from her cop-mentality, she's a sound choice. Stacey Abrams would have been my preferred choice if Biden was about 4 years younger. I think Rice would be the weakest choice.

I'd prefer Elizabeth Warren to all of these options, since I think Biden needs a progressive for maximum turnout. All of these options are ideologically similar to Biden, which doesn't help expand his umbrella. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I pick Kamala Harris VERY reluctantly.

Yeah. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

I pick Kamala Harris VERY reluctantly. I think considering Biden's age, that experience matters more than usual. Obama and Trump were too inexperienced. I don't want to risk that again. I think aside from her cop-mentality, she's a sound choice. Stacey Abrams would have been my preferred choice if Biden was about 4 years younger. I think Rice would be the weakest choice.

I'd prefer Elizabeth Warren to all of these options, since I think Biden needs a progressive for maximum turnout. All of these options are ideologically similar to Biden, which doesn't help expand his umbrella. 

 

39 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yeah. 

I think she may be a sabotaging detriment and liability to any attempt by Biden to court African-American voters, given her powerful ties to Unconstitutional private prison slavery, and a police state known for racial profiling and summary executions and brutality.

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I'd hoped for someone with a lot more traditional experience, but I believe Val is the right woman at the right time in our nation's history.

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My girlfriend, who knows who Trump and Biden are and that's about it, saw Bottoms speak on CNN one night when I had it on. I made an off hand comment about how she could be the next Vice President and asked her how she felt about that and she very confidently said "hell yeah! I'd vote for her." So while she might not have the name recognition of Harris she has other things going for her. "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste."-Rahm Emanuel former White House Chief of Staff for President Obama.

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Condoleezza Rice is the best option to be honest.

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3 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Condoleezza Rice is the best option to be honest.

Biden would never do it, but I imagine this would contribute to blowing Trump out of the water in a landslide. 

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6 hours ago, Patine said:

 

I think she may be a sabotaging detriment and liability to any attempt by Biden to court African-American voters, given her powerful ties to Unconstitutional private prison slavery, and a police state known for racial profiling and summary executions and brutality.

So who is his best option out of these then. 

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2 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

Biden would never do it, but I imagine this would contribute to blowing Trump out of the water in a landslide. 

That's true. I am not saying I hope Rice gets the spot hahah

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Harris is obvious choice to me. Not a contest, really.

Checklist:

1. No major skeletons in closet? (Can never really know, but Biden probably has a pretty good idea of this and did significant research on her early in the primaries.)

2. Not a gaffe machine? (Check. Harris has made verbal mistakes, but nothing compared to, say, Biden himself.)

3. Can campaign relatively well? (Check.)

4. Has significant executive experience? (Check.)

5. Has significant federal-level experience? (Check.)

The primary importance of a Veep candidate is

1. Plausibly step in if needed as President.

2. Not screw up the campaign with gaffes and so on.

3. Help consolidate any aspects of party that candidate weak with.

Pence, an extremely good pick by Trump, easily checked all 3 of these boxes (Former Governor of mid-sized state, extremely careful and experienced in campaigning, helped bring in religious conservatives).

Palin, a poor pick by McCain, only checked one of these boxes (3., bringing in Tea Party conservatives).

Harris probably checks 1 and 2. She doesn't help so much with 3, but it's not clear to me Biden is particularly weak with any significant part of the party.

Abrams might be 2nd best on this list.

Picking a Veep candidate because they're from a swing state is a nice-to-have but not a must-have, in my opinion.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Condoleezza Rice is the best option to be honest.

That'd be the most alienating and a slap in the face to the left wing of the party. There's no way that would happen.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

That's true. I am not saying I hope Rice gets the spot hahah

 

3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I'd hoped for someone with a lot more traditional experience, but I believe Val is the right woman at the right time in our nation's history.

Based off those researching VP selections, I've gathered the following various opinions:

  • The VP provides a home state boost of anywhere from 1.5% to 5%, and one with name recognition can provide a smaller boost in states in the region. 
  • It is likely an African-American VP will greatly turnout African-American support in the Northern Cities and in the South. However, this has never occurred, so it's just a guess. 
  • Ideologically, voters are going to be pretty much set, so conversion votes are unlikely. However, independents, especially those that dislike both candidates are potentially pliable. The guess then is 1) Are there more moderates not voting for Biden right now that could potentially vote for Biden? 2) Are there more progressives not voting for Biden right now that could potentially vote for Biden? 
  • Selecting someone to the right of Biden might attract some of those moderate undecideds that dislike both candidates. However, moderate may have a lower dislike rate of Biden, and so the pool of potential new voters might be smaller. 
  • Selecting someone to the left of Biden might attract those progressive undecideds that dislike both candidates, which is probably a higher number than the moderates. 
  • While a smaller number, the undecided moderates that dislike both candidates might be disproportionately largers, demographically speaking, in the states that matter. 
  • Selecting a progressive would generate a higher popular vote, which isn't a requirement with an electoral college system. 
  • Selecting a progressive will secure some new voters who are often more vocal, and energized, presumably, than moderates. 
  • According to the theory of negative partisanship, selecting a progressive would tap into the angrier progressive base which might add more force to the Biden campaign; however, in my opinion, this also contradicts their philosophy, since a progressive would more likely energize the opposition against Biden, while someone to the right of Biden would likely deflate the opposition, but it would also deflate excitement from the left, who are often more fickle about voting. 
  • Picking an identical ideology VP often doesn't work--Clinton/Gore is an exception. It doubles-down on one wing of the party and leaves the other wings feeling snubbed. This can be made up with generous platform concessions to progressives, although this arguably didn't work for Clinton since the more hardcore only wanted one progressive ideal--Bernie Sanders on the ticket. As you'll note, while a progressive myself I am about as critical of my fellow Sanders-supporters as I am of Trump-supporters. It just happens that I agree with the progressive platform and ideals, but I don't agree with their campaign and politic mindset. 
  • A woman VP would have to be very different from Clinton, who had a habit of repelling some women and many working class men. 

The ideal candidate would be an African-American woman that is left of Biden, has done nothing to upset progressives and isn't left enough to turn away moderates, is tough but seems feminine with a somewhat soothing voice, from a battleground state, has experience, high integrity, is likable enough that she doesn't rouse the opposition, and seems like something that people would want to vote for in 2024 if Biden serves only one-term. Actually, ideally for maximum chance of victory in key states, unfortunately, the VP would probaby have to be a man, since misogyny is a thing still. However, Biden has made his decision to select a woman, and it is the right thing to do in most ways. 

Overall, it's almost impossible to find a perfect VP selection. The good thing is that the VP pick matters far less than the presidential pick. We've had few instances in history where the VP selection proved disasterous, arguably McCain selecting Palin, McGovern VP blunder, Goldwater really hurt his chances with his VP pick. Prior to FDR, VPs had a huge impact on winning a homestate, so bad picks were more about picking a VP from the wrong state. 

@SilentLiberty @pilight @Patine @admin_270 might also want to read this. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

is tough but seems feminine with a somewhat soothing voice

😄

Agree with most of what you say here, but it's really important to distinguish between must-haves and nice-to-haves. Don't pick someone who will make a mess of the campaign, and that means pick an experienced campaigner who has faced serious scrutiny from well-funded opponents in a campaign before.

That eliminates all those on the list except Harris and, arguably, Abrams.

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3 minutes ago, pilight said:

I'd much rather have Keisha Lance Bottoms run for governor in 2022 than be VP

And really, a Biden-Bottoms campaign? Makes me think of Depends.

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I can imagine the campaign slogan already:

"Don't want to make a mess of the Presidency? Get Biden-Bottoms now!"

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Sadly it's becoming more likely that Biden will choose none of these 5 and instead pick Gretchen Whitmer or someone as much of a nutjob as her.

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I think the whole notion of identity politics is a dangerous one. I am not a fan of handing people a post just because of their skin color or gender. It should depend on their qualities to be honest. 

15 minutes ago, NYConservative said:

Sadly it's becoming more likely that Biden will choose none of these 5 and instead pick Gretchen Whitmer or someone as much of a nutjob as her.

I don't think so. First of all she isn't black and her handling as Governor is mediocre to put it nicely. Her husband made also a huge gaffe as he didn't care about the rules...

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46 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

😄

Agree with most of what you say here, but it's really important to distinguish between must-haves and nice-to-haves. Don't pick someone who will make a mess of the campaign, and that means pick an experienced campaigner who has faced serious scrutiny from well-funded opponents in a campaign before.

That eliminates all those on the list except Harris and, arguably, Abrams.

Of those list above, Harris and Abrams are my two preferred choices. 

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I truly think that Keisha Lance Bottoms is the best pick here. Harris and Demings are understandable, Rice is so-so and Abrams would be a disaster. But Abrams hasn't been called so I've been enjoying a nice laugh over that one.

But here's the thing, Keisha is abosulely the right person for the job here. Her oratory and decision-making under pressure skills are far better than any of the other 4, she's relateable, and she is really the only mayor who hasn't crumbled under media pressure. 

Harris is fine, probably the 3rd best choice, isn't all that exciting, vanilla VP choice. Demings edges her out for 2nd place.

Rice, likewise, even less exciting but good experience will make her an able VP, 4th place.

Abrams, yikes, just yikes. If Biden picks Abrams he doesn't even deserve to win and I say this as a Biden supporter. Abrams is a disaster, comes across as a petulant child, and doesn't deserve to be manager of an Arby's. She reminds me heavily of a left-wing Trump.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

 

Based off those researching VP selections, I've gathered the following various opinions:

  • The VP provides a home state boost of anywhere from 1.5% to 5%, and one with name recognition can provide a smaller boost in states in the region. 
  • It is likely an African-American VP will greatly turnout African-American support in the Northern Cities and in the South. However, this has never occurred, so it's just a guess. 
  • Ideologically, voters are going to be pretty much set, so conversion votes are unlikely. However, independents, especially those that dislike both candidates are potentially pliable. The guess then is 1) Are there more moderates not voting for Biden right now that could potentially vote for Biden? 2) Are there more progressives not voting for Biden right now that could potentially vote for Biden? 
  • Selecting someone to the right of Biden might attract some of those moderate undecideds that dislike both candidates. However, moderate may have a lower dislike rate of Biden, and so the pool of potential new voters might be smaller. 
  • Selecting someone to the left of Biden might attract those progressive undecideds that dislike both candidates, which is probably a higher number than the moderates. 
  • While a smaller number, the undecided moderates that dislike both candidates might be disproportionately largers, demographically speaking, in the states that matter. 
  • Selecting a progressive would generate a higher popular vote, which isn't a requirement with an electoral college system. 
  • Selecting a progressive will secure some new voters who are often more vocal, and energized, presumably, than moderates. 
  • According to the theory of negative partisanship, selecting a progressive would tap into the angrier progressive base which might add more force to the Biden campaign; however, in my opinion, this also contradicts their philosophy, since a progressive would more likely energize the opposition against Biden, while someone to the right of Biden would likely deflate the opposition, but it would also deflate excitement from the left, who are often more fickle about voting. 
  • Picking an identical ideology VP often doesn't work--Clinton/Gore is an exception. It doubles-down on one wing of the party and leaves the other wings feeling snubbed. This can be made up with generous platform concessions to progressives, although this arguably didn't work for Clinton since the more hardcore only wanted one progressive ideal--Bernie Sanders on the ticket. As you'll note, while a progressive myself I am about as critical of my fellow Sanders-supporters as I am of Trump-supporters. It just happens that I agree with the progressive platform and ideals, but I don't agree with their campaign and politic mindset. 
  • A woman VP would have to be very different from Clinton, who had a habit of repelling some women and many working class men. 

The ideal candidate would be an African-American woman that is left of Biden, has done nothing to upset progressives and isn't left enough to turn away moderates, is tough but seems feminine with a somewhat soothing voice, from a battleground state, has experience, high integrity, is likable enough that she doesn't rouse the opposition, and seems like something that people would want to vote for in 2024 if Biden serves only one-term. Actually, ideally for maximum chance of victory in key states, unfortunately, the VP would probaby have to be a man, since misogyny is a thing still. However, Biden has made his decision to select a woman, and it is the right thing to do in most ways. 

Overall, it's almost impossible to find a perfect VP selection. The good thing is that the VP pick matters far less than the presidential pick. We've had few instances in history where the VP selection proved disasterous, arguably McCain selecting Palin, McGovern VP blunder, Goldwater really hurt his chances with his VP pick. Prior to FDR, VPs had a huge impact on winning a homestate, so bad picks were more about picking a VP from the wrong state. 

@SilentLiberty @pilight @Patine @admin_270 might also want to read this. 

I know some people who are convinced Biden's vp pick is far more important that typical vp picks. My dad, as an example, believes that the Democrats are gonna get rid of Biden within a year or two in his term(should he win) so that his VP can be president.

 

1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

I truly think that Keisha Lance Bottoms is the best pick here. Harris and Demings are understandable, Rice is so-so and Abrams would be a disaster. But Abrams hasn't been called so I've been enjoying a nice laugh over that one.

But here's the thing, Keisha is abosulely the right person for the job here. Her oratory and decision-making under pressure skills are far better than any of the other 4, she's relateable, and she is really the only mayor who hasn't crumbled under media pressure. 

Harris is fine, probably the 3rd best choice, isn't all that exciting, vanilla VP choice. Demings edges her out for 2nd place.

Rice, likewise, even less exciting but good experience will make her an able VP, 4th place.

Abrams, yikes, just yikes. If Biden picks Abrams he doesn't even deserve to win and I say this as a Biden supporter. Abrams is a disaster, comes across as a petulant child, and doesn't deserve to be manager of an Arby's. She reminds me heavily of a left-wing Trump.

Agree with you about Abrams, strongly disagree with you about Harris. Harris would be just as big of a disaster imo.

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Abrams, yikes, just yikes. If Biden picks Abrams he doesn't even deserve to win and I say this as a Biden supporter. Abrams is a disaster, comes across as a petulant child, and doesn't deserve to be manager of an Arby's. She reminds me heavily of a left-wing Trump.

Abrams basically acts as if she were the Governor of Georgia all the time....

18 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Harris would be just as big of a disaster imo.

True. I still selected her as Biden's best shot but this also tells us how bad the options actually are.

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1 hour ago, SilentLiberty said:

Harris would be just as big of a disaster imo.

Why do you think Harris would be a disaster?

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