Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
billay

Does Trump still have a chance at winning?

Recommended Posts

Losing in all the swing states albeit within the margain of error in alot of polls. He has the lowest favorability since Carter at this time. It seems as though the only good news is the economy is coming back yet he keeps tweeting about nonsense.

 

He barely won last time and I would say that's because of the emails and the FBI made a statement about it just a few weeks before the election.  The Hunter Biden stuff seemed somewhat effective several months ago but now it may not matter if Republicans try and make that a scandal again.

 

So how does Trump win?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, billay said:

So how does Trump win?

MAGA, perhaps one of the best slogans in recent memory, looked like it was going to be replaced with KAG, which isn't nearly as catchy.

But, due to COVID-19 stuff, it looks like Trump is going to run again on MAGA. So he will be running as a change candidate, despite being the incumbent.

Biden, on the other hand, seems to be running a non-change campaign, where it's a continuation of the Obama years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

MAGA, perhaps one of the best slogans in recent memory, looked like it was going to be replaced with KAG, which isn't nearly as catchy.

But, due to COVID-19 stuff, it looks like Trump is going to run again on MAGA. So he will be running as a change candidate, despite being the incumbent.

Biden, on the other hand, seems to be running a non-change campaign, where it's a continuation of the Obama years.

I agree with the first part. "Change We Can Believe" in is the closest rival, but probably wasn't as advertised a slogan. 

He might run as a change candidate, but it won't be as effective as last time, since he's the incumbent. It's kind of hard to say you're going to Make America Great Again, if you couldn't do it in your first term. Keep America Great doesn't work because that's an awful slogan for a pademic and recession election. What he needs to do is have a slogan like Make America Greater, which avoids the pitfall that KAG and MAGA have. You just have MAG.

For the second part, his change candidate appeal isn't really going to exist. Those that would be convinced of that are likely his base that is already supporting him. There is no change candidate in this election. There's just a "Do you want what happened in the last 4-years to keep going" candidate and the "Do you want an updated, slightly more leftward return to Obama" candidate. As Obama is eminently more popular and less disliked than Trump, such a matchup under these terms would likely favor Biden. Trump's best strategy would be to seperate Biden from Obama or so convincingly bury or distort the memory of Obama's presidency that it isn't safe for Biden to run as a 3rd term (but updated for 2020) version of Obama. Of these, I can't think he can do the latter, so he'll have to do the former. He needs to create the phrase "Bidenism" and never mention Obama, and make this all about Biden and why "Bidenism" is not a return to Obama but something new that's wholly bad. The best strategy for both candidates, considering how gaffe prone they are, is to avoid talking. 

For the last part, not a bad strategy for Biden considering Obama's relative popularity to Trump. However, he has to do more than that. Al Gore was hurt by trying to distance himself from Bill Clinton, most experts say. Bush I embraced running as a 3rd term Reagan. I think if Biden was running as his own man and distancing himself from Obama, then he probably wouldn't have won the primary and would likely be even less appealing as a nominee. It's basically a total enhancer. The only downside is that those that really dislike Obama might not vote for them. However, wouldn't they already be voting for Trump? Additionally, I doubt hardcore Sanders supporters will change their mind on Biden, whether he's running as his own man or as the Redeemer of the Obama Legacy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, billay said:

Losing in all the swing states albeit within the margain of error in alot of polls. He has the lowest favorability since Carter at this time. It seems as though the only good news is the economy is coming back yet he keeps tweeting about nonsense.

 

He barely won last time and I would say that's because of the emails and the FBI made a statement about it just a few weeks before the election.  The Hunter Biden stuff seemed somewhat effective several months ago but now it may not matter if Republicans try and make that a scandal again.

 

So how does Trump win?

I think there's a 10% chance Trump wins. He wins if the Coronavirus recession goes away and the economy recovers to pre-Coronavirus numbers. Barring that, he loses. 

I don't think Biden's gaffes will have any impact. You have two equally incoherent nominees. I can't see someone saying, "Biden misspoke again....ah, I'll just vote Trump." @Wiw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He might run as a change candidate, but it won't be as effective as last time, since he's the incumbent. It's kind of hard to say you're going to Make America Great Again, if you couldn't do it in your first term.

I agree with you that it's trickier. But there's an obvious reason it's plausible in this case - the U.S. has to recover from COVID-19.

So it became great again during his first term, but then COVID-19 happened, which is a global event so not Trump's fault, so he made it great and now must make it great again. I think that might be the line of reasoning. We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Make America Greater

Ya, this is better than KAG. Another alternative perhaps a way to keep MAGA but change the words? Make America Great A...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

MAGA, perhaps one of the best slogans in recent memory, looked like it was going to be replaced with KAG, which isn't nearly as catchy.

But, due to COVID-19 stuff, it looks like Trump is going to run again on MAGA. So he will be running as a change candidate, despite being the incumbent.

Biden, on the other hand, seems to be running a non-change campaign, where it's a continuation of the Obama years.

I thought Obama's "Yes We Can!" was extremely effective.

As for Biden, he's running as a "Return from the brink of insanity" candidate.

Also:  honorable mention to Jeb Bush's "JEB!" which is just so unintentionally hilarious that it almost had to be intentional, and yet somehow wasn't...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

MAGA, perhaps one of the best slogans in recent memory, looked like it was going to be replaced with KAG, which isn't nearly as catchy.

KAG sounds lousy. It always reminds me of Pepe the Frog jumping into the room and shouting simply ''KAG'' without any context.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, this is better than KAG. Another alternative perhaps a way to keep MAGA but change the words? Make America Great A...?

Make America Go Again? Make America Garrote Antifa? Make American Greatly Affordable? My Abdomen, Great Abs? More Adorable Great Apes? My Awesome Great Aunt? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Make America Go Again? Make America Garrote Antifa? Make American Greatly Affordable? My Abdomen, Great Abs? More Adorable Great Apes? My Awesome Great Aunt? 

Ya, hmmm ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Democratic primaries showed how disliked Hillary really was. She really had trouble putting Sanders away in a 1 vs 1 race while Biden had no issues.

 

We tend to forget how close last election was and it seemed like Hillary didnt exactly get the minority vote out while let's be honest Biden crushed the field with blacks and will win over Latinos rather easily.  Even if Trump recovers  I think Biden has a built in fire wall.

 

Also the Biden gaffes were mentioned and that's legit especially if you look at his last interview with Charlamange.  His handlers have done a good job at keep him in hiding. I think the COVID stuff does him a favor he doesnt have to go out on the trail and tell people he disagrees with to vote for someone else like he did during the primaries.

 

Only way I think Trump wins is if the economy recovers and COVID becomes an after thought with some Biden debate meltdowns that end up suppressing the voter turnout.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@billay @Wiw @Actinguy @admin_270

The Economist is also making a forecasting: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?utm_medium=pr&utm_source=inf-a

  • Biden has a 5 in 6 chance (82%) of winning the EC and a 96% chance of winning the PV.
  • Biden's EC range is 223 to 412; Trump's EC range is 126-315.
  • Economist had BIden and Trump at a 269-269 prior to Coronavirus.
  • Currently, Economist is projecting a 330-208, if the election were held today. 
  • Economist has the following states that Trump won in 2016 as "Likely Biden," FL, PA, MI, WI, and the following as "Tossups," GA, NC, AZ, OH. Meanwhile, TX and IA are are "Likely Trump." 
  • Economist has Biden w/ 53.7% of the PV and Trump with 46.3% of the PV. The Economist never has Biden dropping below 50% of the PV anywhere on the timeline. 

While a projection today doesn't mean a lot, the trends are important. No matter the state of affairs from March 1st to June 11th, support for Biden is significantly higher than support for Trump; therefore, any pundit, amature or otherwise, could call the Popular Vote today as being "Safe Biden." If the EC had been abolished,  and only the PV mattered, one could say the election is already over. The GOP would be better off dropping Trump from the ticket and running someone else. The EC vote is another matter. Prior to the Coronavirus and it's recession, the race looked like a 50/50 tossup, but now it looks like a Biden runaway win. Trump has about 4 months and a few weeks to turn this around. That is not a lot of time. I think a stronger argument, considering we are dealing with a 2nd surge of coronavirus (states reopened too quickly), that Biden's EC vote victory is at least "Lean Biden" and probably more "Likely Biden." The Coronavirus and its recession will likely consume at least two more months, leaving Trump only about 2 months to recover. I think if anyone can do that, it's probably Trump. As bad of a president and leader that he is, he's mastered the art of spin and self-advertisement. In this, I think his only rivals are Reagan, FDR, Andrew Jackson, and possibly Bill Clinton (at least in spin). However, the comparisons stop there. Reagan, FDR, Jackson, and to a lesser extent, Clinton were all immensly popular; Trump has not been popular for even a day of his presidency (never reached 50% average approval for a day). Trump has the uphill battle; Biden does not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This all seems overconfident though - I mean, they all said Hillary would win last time, and that didn't happen!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Wiw said:

This all seems overconfident though - I mean, they all said Hillary would win last time, and that didn't happen!

That’s how I feel about it.  Every single reason in the world points to Biden winning — except the simple fact that every reason pointed to Clinton winning last time, and reason lost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Wiw said:

This all seems overconfident though - I mean, they all said Hillary would win last time, and that didn't happen!

 

8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

That’s how I feel about it.  Every single reason in the world points to Biden winning — except the simple fact that every reason pointed to Clinton winning last time, and reason lost.

There are two big differences here: 1) Biden's favorability/unfavorability scores are nowhere near as bad as Hillary Clinton's, especially in the states that matter. 2) Biden's margin in state polls, especially those that count, and in national polls is about twice as large as these polls showed for Clinton--well outside the margin of error in some cases (Clinton was within the margin of error). I don't think Clinton is comparable to Biden. I don't think the same conditions exist. 2020 is a different election than 2016. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One criticism I have of these projections is they are essentially a kind of Marxist or historical materialism. 

Elections aren't won by conditions, they are won or lost by *people*. Trump has a fierce, competitive mind-set, he is cunning, and he is willing to break soft 'rules' to win. Basically,

WinnersArentLosers.jpg

So my estimation is if anyone can win given these sorts of numbers 5 months out, it's Trump. I'm not saying this because I'm somewhat sympatico with certain of his policies. It's because of my read of the man. The future isn't just in the stars, but in us, IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And even if he does lose, I'm sorry, I can't shake off the feeling that he'll go nuts and bomb us all to oblivion. He'll run off with the nuclear briefcase and hold the world hostage for two months!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Wiw said:

And even if he does lose, I'm sorry, I can't shake off the feeling that he'll go nuts and bomb us all to oblivion. He'll run off with the nuclear briefcase and hold the world hostage for two months!

He can't unilaterally bomb people. Although, I do fear the two months of his lame duck period. I'm about 90% sure he'll be vengeful and do whatever he can to make it impossible for President Biden to even get his presidency started. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, admin_270 said:

One criticism I have of these projections is they are essentially a kind of Marxist or historical materialism. 

Elections aren't won by conditions, they are won or lost by *people*. Trump has a fierce, competitive mind-set, he is cunning, and he is willing to break soft 'rules' to win. Basically,

WinnersArentLosers.jpg

So my estimation is if anyone can win given these sorts of numbers 5 months out, it's Trump. I'm not saying this because I'm somewhat sympatico with certain of his policies. It's because of my read of the man. The future isn't just in the stars, but in us, IMHO.

Elections are not like many other contests - they are not actually competing skill, knowledge, or well-honed physical capabilities against others to show who deserves to win by merit. In many cases (and Trump CERTAINLY applies here), they're a race to hoodwink, scam, swindle, lie to, and BS large amounts of people to believe you'd be better for a position, with no inherent need to provide a necessary burden of PROOF at the time, and often involve hyperbole, vitriol, and playing upon emotion, but with no required substance - especially the phenomenon called populism, which is very dangerous to a government and society, but also, in and of itself (as populism is a style of election campaigning and promotion, and not an ideological stance on the Political Spectrum - an electoral style that can be taken up by any but the most moderate and conciliatory political ideologies, in the right leaders' hands).

"The individual is capable of great intelligence, discernment, questioning, and rationality. The masses are stupid," Carl Jung, believe to have been first said by him not long after the March, 1933 Reichstag Election in the Weimar Republic.

But I thought you already knew this, @admin_270. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Polls can change quickly, much moreso now than in the past thanks to social media.  For example, the approval numbers for Black Lives Matter have gone up 12 points in two weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Know what? Please spell out your point.

That just because you win an election doesn't mean you deserve the office you get, that you presented yourself anywhere near honestly in intentions or agendas for that office, and that in fact you might have just lied through your teeth and pulled a massive hoodwink. Given the stakes of many of these races - especially the U.S. Presidential one - the slipshod nature of requirement for credibility - no mental health reviews can be demanded, tax forms can be withhold, there is absolutely no requirement for any honesty or integrity on the campaign trial, and candidates can carry on freely after nothing but lies, and you can legally campaign from a prison cell serving a serious criminal conviction (like Eugene Debs in 1916 and a Peace and Justice candidate in 1976). This is just plain unacceptable, from this perspective. In fact, it's downright monstrous! This makes "winning," in many cases - and others potentially - a "loss," for the nation, it's Constitution and base principals, and the world by default. It is also the source of why Plato criticized Pericles and his Democracy in the book, "the Republic."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Patine said:

That just because you win an election doesn't mean you deserve the office you get

Not sure how this connects with the point I was making ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...