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Poll: Obama crushes Trump in landslide


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41 minutes ago, Patine said:

Actually, there's three. @Edouard was born and raised in France, but is a permanent resident of Quebec (to the point of being able to vote). And I don't hate everything - for instance I'm a big proponent of justice for all without distinctions by class, race, gender, identity, or position - but since that concept would, if properly in the place, put Bush and all in high government like him in International War Crimes Tribunals instead of immunity to all possible criminal charges, investigation, or indictments - or serious, transparent review in retrospect for possible criminal wrongdoing - by pure politicized fiat, be come to loggerheads, because you effectively believe such politicians should - for some reason - be utterly immune and untouchable to such criminal accountability, but I believe, ideally, justice should apply the same to all. In fact, those of greater power and responsibility should bear a much HIGHER of criminal accountability, because of the greater scope and damage their crimes can do.

For example, sentences are on the list of things one of the Canadians hate.  ;c)

"One man's justice is another man's injustice" - Ralph Waldo Emerson

You've made a lot of assumptions about me in the longest sentence that was ever written.  I've obviously advocated for Trump and his associates to be hauled off for every crime committed, so the idea that I believe "such politicians should be utterly immune and untouchable for such criminal accountability" is not true.

Just because we disagree on the merits of one individual leader and the choices he had to make to keep us alive during an unprecedented crisis does not mean that I am a person entirely lacking any moral fiber.

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2 minutes ago, Patine said:

So, you wouldn't, if you had been there and had the wherewithal, left Germany on the March 1933 Election if you were Jewish, Romani, Homosexual, Communist, Socialist, Jehovah's Witness, or Seventh-Day Adventist (or strongly suspected of being one or more of the above), or South African in 1948 if you were Black and still enjoying a pre-1948 Cape Qualified Franchise? There's actually no election would leave because of unless it was purely economic that you're aware of? Really?

I'm talking about elections I've lived through and am at least passingly familiar with. If Germans knew what was coming, probably all of them would have chosen to leave, not just because of the casualties and actions during the war, but the conditions afterwards.

So of course there are historical exceptions - can you name one since 1980 that you would find compelling on non-economic grounds?

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58 minutes ago, vcczar said:

'm actually strongly considering moving to Canada if he wins reelection. 

No better up there my friend. This continent is in the midst of some of the most incompetent simultaneous leadership of its three principle powers in continental history. It is no bueno for North America right now. Three absolute clowns are running the show.

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

No better up there my friend. This continent is in the midst of some of the most incompetent simultaneous leadership of its three principle powers in continental history. It is no bueno for North America right now. Three absolute clowns are running the show.

I'm still curious as to your gripes about the current Mexican President. It's a country I've been remiss on following the news in the last few years, I confess. I asked you earlier on another thread, but absolutely no response was forthcoming. That was a week or two ago. It was (and is) a serious question - not an attempted baiting.

Although, I definitely agree that Justin Trudeau is a very lacking PM, by far. I was really hoping Jagmeet Singh would capitalize on his weakness, and the weak campaign by Scheer, and Bernier's desire to "divide the Right," and clean house. The 2019 Canadian Federal Election was VERY disappointing for me...

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11 minutes ago, Patine said:

I'm still curious as to your gripes about the current Mexican President. It's a country I've been remiss on following the news in the last few years, I confess. I asked you earlier on another thread, but absolutely no response was forthcoming. That was a week or two ago. It was (and is) a serious question - not an attempted baiting.

Although, I definitely agree that Justin Trudeau is a very lacking PM, by far. I was really hoping Jagmeet Singh would capitalize on his weakness, and the weak campaign by Scheer, and Bernier's desire to "divide the Right," and clean house. The 2019 Canadian Federal Election was VERY disappointing for me...

Oh sorry for not responding. Obrador has been even worse about responding to COVID-19 than Trump. He's been even wackier with his pronouncement of conspiracy theories and that it was all just a "hoax". That was, of course, until his negligence turned an already vulnerable Mexico into a hotspot for the disease. Combine that with his self-avowed Socialism, one could say I'm not a fan. 

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24 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

Interestingly, betting odds have consistently favoured Trump the last 2 months, while national polling has favoured Biden. I find that curious.

Probably because polls favored the Democrat last time and Trump still won.  Ironically, gamblers (myself included) are creatures of habit.

 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

My comment about this poll relates to the thread you started here

http://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/17394-outlier-poll-with-trump-crushing-biden/

I said it makes sense to wait for more corroborating data from other polls re Trump leading in swing states. We now have corroboration. I don't think it's definitive corroboration, but both of these suggest the swing state equation is favouring Trump at this point.

Not that I think that matters much at this point either way, as there's 5 1/2 months to go.

I'd like to see a better polling company do this, but I think more convincing data would be if Trump were winning state-by-state polls. When he does win, it's like +1 or +3, which is the same Biden gets when he wins in the states that Trump also wins. In the battleground states where Biden always wins, he's winning +3 to +10. 

I'm not quite sure how helpful a collective states poll actually is. A state specific, or even county specific polling, would be better. 

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38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

Interestingly, betting odds have consistently favoured Trump the last 2 months, while national polling has favoured Biden. I find that curious.

Yeah, I've seen that, but I don't gamble, so I don't know the method or rationale. It would be interesting to see betting odds for all incumbent presidents since betting odds have been a thing. See where Trump ranks with that.

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31 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Probably because polls favored the Democrat last time and Trump still won.  Ironically, gamblers (myself included) are creatures of habit.

 

Ya ... RCP betting averages don't go back very far that I can tell (only have data on their site to March 12th), but briefly in mid-March Biden overtook Trump in the averages, which coincides with him consolidating the Democratic primaries. But that boost quickly receded, and by late March Trump had a significant lead which he has retained for the last 2 months 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Why? I have a hard time imagining saying I'd move to another country because a politician wins or doesn't win an election. It seems like a crazy sentiment to me. I'd move to another country because it has a nicer climate, a stronger economy, and so on. But because a politician wins or doesn't win an election?

Remember all those celebrities who said they were going to move if Trump win in 2016? Where'd they go?

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3 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Remember all those celebrities who said they were going to move if Trump win in 2016? Where'd they go?

Ya, perhaps some celebrities genuinely thought they would move. Perhaps some even did (a lot of celebrities maintain multiple homes in different countries anyways).

I think one purpose of saying that is a bit like using a swear word - it's to emphasize how strongly they feel about or how important they view a certain issue. "I don't want Trump to win so much that I might move to another country if he does." Something like that.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, perhaps some celebrities genuinely thought they would move. Perhaps some even did (a lot of celebrities maintain multiple homes in different countries anyways).

I think one purpose of saying that is a bit like using a swear word - it's to emphasize how strongly they feel about or how important they view a certain issue. "I don't want Trump to win so much that I might move to another country if he does." Something like that.

I know a few people that did move, mostly to Spain for some reason. My GF and I are strongly considering moving if he wins in November. I prefer going to Europe, but my GF is considering Toronto or Vancouver. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I prefer going to Europe, but my GF is considering Toronto or Vancouver.

Interesting! I can only speak for Vancouver, which has a lot going for it - it can be a bit dreary in the winter, but outside of that the main drawback is high rental and real estate prices.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

I'm still curious as to your gripes about the current Mexican President. I

He also declared himself the rightful president of Mexico when he lost a few years back, going as far as to appoint his entire shadow government if I recall. After his loss he encouraged widespread protests to declare the election invalid.
He is a pretty clear threat to the development of a stronger and more stable/transparent democracy in Mexico. 

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Interesting! I can only speak for Vancouver, which has a lot going for it - it can be a bit dreary in the winter, but outside of that the main drawback is high rental and real estate prices.

 

8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Awesome if you like being outside.

I've never been to the West Coast, whereas she used to live in Seattle and Portland. 

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Anywhere in Europe you're thinking? 

Anywhere we could find work. I'd like to keep teaching at a University. If I can get a lot of work teaching English to foreigners, I'd do that too. If I had a choice, I'd say UK, Scandinavia, Germany, Czech Republic. 

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41 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Anywhere in Europe you're thinking? 

 

36 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Anywhere we could find work. I'd like to keep teaching at a University. If I can get a lot of work teaching English to foreigners, I'd do that too. If I had a choice, I'd say UK, Scandinavia, Germany, Czech Republic. 

I lived on a Portuguese island in the Azores for 1.5 years.  Most amazing time of my life.  No universities, but there was an American school for teaching the children of US military members.  Presumably, one could teach the locals English as well.

That said, I think the base I worked was turned back over to the Portuguese a couple years ago, which I'm sure had a negative impact on the island's economy.  No idea what it's like there now, but it was a magical place to live at the time.

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42 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Anywhere we could find work. I'd like to keep teaching at a University. If I can get a lot of work teaching English to foreigners, I'd do that too. If I had a choice, I'd say UK, Scandinavia, Germany, Czech Republic. 

I also lived in South Korea for two years.  A little bit of a risk given the obvious proximity to North Korea, but it honestly wasn't even an active thought in my mind most days.  

I was friends with several Americans there who taught English to South Korean children, and even a few people who were in the military with me decided to get out of the armed forces and stay to teach local kids after I left.  There's a huge demand for American english teachers in South Korea (though I imagine the pay is about on par with what a teacher would make here)

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@vcczar This site suggests you could make $1500 - $2500 per month teaching English in South Korea, and they would give you free rent and also free flights home.  It also mentions jobs for Americans in Korean universities.

https://www.internationalteflacademy.com/blog/salaries-benefits-teaching-english-in-south-korea

Also, you apparently don't have to know Korean to teach English to Koreans -- though you'd want to eventually start learning if you were going to be living there, of course.

 

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46 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

@vcczar This site suggests you could make $1500 - $2500 per month teaching English in South Korea, and they would give you free rent and also free flights home.  It also mentions jobs for Americans in Korean universities.

https://www.internationalteflacademy.com/blog/salaries-benefits-teaching-english-in-south-korea

Also, you apparently don't have to know Korean to teach English to Koreans -- though you'd want to eventually start learning if you were going to be living there, of course.

 

I’d consider that maybe 10 years ago. My GF is about to finish her PhD in autism research. We’d probably go wherever she’s needed and wherever she could speak English regularly at work. My work is probably more flexible, so it’s going to be bound by where she’s getting offers. I can probably work online if I have to. 

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I saw that AMLO was mentioned and I will give my two cents in :)

His administration's handling of the pandemic has been rather bad 👎 

However, his policies especially in terms of grants to students, raising the minimum wage, and raise pensions have helped the population of Mexico and were all promises he made.

He reminds me of President Cardenas except Cardenas didn't have to deal with a pandemic and was a lot more interesting to read about then AMLO.

( I took Mexican history and followed the 2018 election closely if anyone is wondering. I also made a 2018 Mexico scenario if anyone is interested)

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