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Michigan Republican-turned-Independent Congressman Justin Amash has apparently launched an exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian nomination for President at their convention in Austin (originally scheduled for May but delayed with an replacement date TBA)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/justin-amash-launches-exploratory-committee-for-libertarian-presidential-bid/ar-BB13l4p0?ocid=U142DHP

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Yep. No idea how this will effect the race. Seems as plausible to me this will take votes from Biden as that it will take votes from Trump. Anybody have data re polling hypotheticals on this one?

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22 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Yep. No idea how this will effect the race. Seems as plausible to me this will take votes from Biden as that it will take votes from Trump. Anybody have data re polling hypotheticals on this one?

There are none so far. Most analysts that I've seen seem to think it will hurt Biden by taking away NeverTrump voters that could potentially vote for Biden. Taking even 2,000 of these voters in a state could be bad for Biden. I think it's less likely they steal from Trump. Some of Biden (and Hillary Clinton's) conservative support was among Free Trade Libertarians, who oppose protectionism more than they oppose safety nets and welfare. Amash is much more of a true Libertarian than Gary Johnson was. He might pull Free Trade Libertarians and NeverTrump Libertarians that feel obligated to support a more pure Libertarian candidate. Jesse Ventura as a Green Party candidate would be the first significant nominee for that party since Nader, and the first to hold a significant office (ex-governor), and the first celebrity candidate for Green. He's bound to do better than Stein. He could flip MN to Trump. Amash could give MI back to Trump. 

Allan Lichtman would argue that strong 3rd parties hurt the incumbent party, regardless of the ideology of the incumbent party. He would argue that Amash or Ventura or both would be a mark against Trump's reelection chances. 

Bitecofer and Sabato would probably argue that it doesn't matter and the most hated major party candidate would lose. They don't seem to think 3rd parties are a direct equation or that likability or love for a candidate is really a major factor. 

I'm more inclined to go with those that think this hurts Biden. I hope both candidates just drop out of the general election and support Biden even if it fucks over their third parties. I think Amash might do that, but I don't think Ventura would. 

Some argue that Amash is to the right of Trump in a way that he will steal Trump votes, but I'm not so sure about that. 

Amash and Ventura running would be the best news for Trump since his acquittal in regards to reelection chances. 

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I wonder in terms of %'s how good each of these candidates would do? Ventura & Amash

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm more inclined to go with those that think this hurts Biden.

Ya, this would be my guess until I see some hard data. I can imagine some people who can't bring themselves to vote for Trump, but really don't like the Dems, and who have a more libertarian worldview, breathing a sigh of relief if there's a credible 3rd option.

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1 minute ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I wonder in terms of %'s how good each of these candidates would do? Ventura & Amash

Depends. 

I think Amash (3%) and Ventura (2%) barring major events. Trump wins. 

If Trump support collapses among Republicans for his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis, then Amash (6%) and Ventura (3%).  Biden wins. 

If Biden is hit by a major sex scandal and he's unable to convincingly spin it, then Amash (5%) and Ventura (4%). Trump wins. 

I doubt either will get Perot-like numbers. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, this would be my guess until I see some hard data. I can imagine some people who can't bring themselves to vote for Trump, but really don't like the Dems, and who have a more libertarian worldview, breathing a sigh of relief if there's a credible 3rd option.

I don't think there's ever a credible 3rd option until one of these parties can get 270 EVs. Removal of the Electoral College would allow for eventual credibility for 3rd parties. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I don't think there's ever a credible 3rd option until one of these parties can get 270 EVs. Removal of the Electoral College would allow for eventual credibility for 3rd parties. 

I mean a credible candidate in terms of experience and so on. Not that the candidate is likely to win.

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Depends. 

I think Amash (3%) and Ventura (2%) barring major events. Trump wins. 

If Trump support collapses among Republicans for his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis, then Amash (6%) and Ventura (3%).  Biden wins. 

If Biden is hit by a major sex scandal and he's unable to convincingly spin it, then Amash (5%) and Ventura (4%). Trump wins. 

I doubt either will get Perot-like numbers. 

At first I though Minnesota could produce significant #'s for Ventura in the 10-15% range, then I remembered he was an average Governor, I think he still pulls even 5% in his home state, but again that is significant. However we saw Gary Johnson get 9% in his home state last election, I am wondering if Ventura can do the same. I think Amash get's 2-3% across the board, 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

I mean a credible candidate in terms of experience and so on. Not that the candidate is likely to win.

Oh ok. 

1 minute ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

At first I though Minnesota could produce significant #'s for Ventura in the 10-15% range, then I remembered he was an average Governor, I think he still pulls even 5% in his home state, but again that is significant. However we saw Gary Johnson get 9% in his home state last election, I am wondering if Ventura can do the same. I think Amash get's 2-3% across the board, 

The thing is that MN, MI, PA, WI, NC, FL, AZ, and potentially NH and NV are likely to be a difference between less than 100,000 votes. Any 3rd party gettings as little as 1% of the vote could swing the vote to Biden or Trump, most likely swing it to Trump. 

I could see Trump losing the popular vote by 4 to 6% to Biden and still winning the electoral college. I could see a situation in which Biden gets 50.1% PV, Trump gets 44.1% PV, Amash gets 3.8% and Ventura gets 2%, and Trump wins. 

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There was some hypothetical polling from last year, that showed that Amash around 10% in Michigan.

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1 hour ago, QuickHead555 said:

There was some hypothetical polling from last year, that showed that Amash around 10% in Michigan.

Thanks for this - ya, he might do better in MI, and that might be enough to swing the election.

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Michigan has been one of the hardest hit states for covid-19.  Trump’s blunders have to have been noticed, and it’s hard to imagine that those who are trapped in the middle of a disaster zone are thinking to themselves “gosh, I wish the federal government would leave us alone right now.”

I get the general idea that Amash might hurt Biden more than he helps, but I don’t think it will be in Michigan.

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Thanks for this - ya, he might do better in MI, and that might be enough to swing the election.

3rd Parties seem to do better in hypothetical polls and then greatly underperform on election day, for whatever reasons.

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

3rd Parties seem to do better in hypothetical polls and then greatly underperform on election day, for whatever reasons.

Right, so any polling has to be taken with a big grain of salt.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Right, so any polling has to be taken with a big grain of salt.

Yeah, especially with 3rd parties. Third party voters are considered to be much more unpredictable and probably have a higher percentage of those that won't actually vote. I think the margin of errors of two-party polls are fairly accurate if the margin is within 3%. and the poll is a state-level poll. However, once Amash and Ventura are nominated, if they are, they should probably include them in every single poll. Each poll should also ask everyone who their 2nd choice is. Also, how certain they are that they will vote or vote for their candidate. 

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It's a downward slope for 3rd party polling. The further away from the election, the more people that support 3rd party candidates, however, as we get closer to the election, more people realize that their candidate can't win, and then jump ship.

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Looks like Justin Amash has taken two steps closer to making a campaign official. One; he's decided not to seek re-election to the House (Michigan doesn't allow for a candidate to run for two offices simultaneously) and the other is he has now officially joined the Libertarian party

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/amash-taking-historic-step-to-white-house-bid-becomes-first-libertarian-in-congress-im-in-the-race-to-win-it

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If Biden's campaign collapses late in the race due to the recent allegations, Amash could be the only viable choice at the ballot.

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Cuban wont do it but he would be the perfect running mate for Amash. Brings money and a guy who can get media attention something that the LP struggles with. I was very please with Amashs interview with Chuck and recommending something like UBI for those out of work during these times. I was expecting the typical LP hogwash answer. 

 

If Amash is practical he will try to get never Trumpers like Romney, JEB!, and Kaisch as surrogates.  Highly unlikely that happens.

 

I'll wait and see who Biden elects for his VP. Hes trying to court the black vote which is smart. Someone like Abraham's or Warren will attract progressives to the ticket. Under this scenario I'd say Amash ceiling is 2-3%.

 

If Biden goes the Clinton route and nominates some boring moderate? I think Amash could have a 5-7% ceiling.

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