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jdm06ltd

2024 RP Possible Scenario

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I am considering creating a 2024 "what if" Scenario. I have a really bold prediction for 2024, but I dont think I should say until I see how real it is. 

 

So anyways after 8 years of Trump, Democrats have plunged even further into dissary as the far left continues to dog moderates in primaries, Amy Klobachar and Pete Buttiegig have risen to prominence in the Democratic party....but with the far left in tow, and even some blue Dog Democrats pining for it 2024 should be interesting. 

Most likely

Amy Klobachar (MN)

Pete Buttiegig (IN)

Andrew Yang (NY)

Andrew Gillum (FL)

Cenk Uyger (CA)

Ron Wyden (OR)

Doug Jones (AL) 

Tim Ryan (OH)

John Delaney (MD)

Stacey Abrams (GA)

Ayana Pressley (MA)

Tim Kaine (VA)

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA)

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY)

Megyn Kelley (NY)

Andrew Quomo (NY)

Ralph Northam (VA)

Chelsea Clinton (NY)

 

GOP

 

Most Likely

Mike Pence (IN)

Ron Desantes (FL)

John James (MI)

Jim Jordan (OH)

Marco Rubio (FL)

Ted Cruz (TX)

Gregg Abbott (TX)

Jeb Bush (FL)

Josh Romney (UT)

Donald Trump Jr. (NY)

Corey Gardner (CO)

Paul LePage (ME)

Kanye West (CA)

What Ifs

Alex Jones (TX)

Tucker Carlson (NY)

Ben Shapiro (CA)

Tom Brady (MA)

Mark Cuban (TX)

Dwayne Johnson (CA)

John Thune (SD)

Brian Kemp (GA)

Rick Scott (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jdm06ltd said:

I am considering creating a 2024 "what if" Scenario. I have a really bold prediction for 2024, but I dont think I should say until I see how real it is. 

 

So anyways after 8 years of Trump, Democrats have plunged even further into dissary as the far left continues to dog moderates in primaries, Amy Klobachar and Pete Buttiegig have risen to prominence in the Democratic party....but with the far left in tow, and even some blue Dog Democrats pining for it 2024 should be interesting. 

Most likely

Amy Klobachar (MN)

Pete Buttiegig (IN)

Andrew Yang (NY)

Andrew Gillum (FL)

Cenk Uyger (CA)

Ron Wyden (OR)

Doug Jones (AL) 

Tim Ryan (OH)

John Delaney (MD)

Stacey Abrams (GA)

Ayana Pressley (MA)

Tim Kaine (VA)

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA)

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY)

Megyn Kelley (NY)

Andrew Quomo (NY)

Ralph Northam (VA)

Chelsea Clinton (NY)

 

GOP

 

Most Likely

Mike Pence (IN)

Ron Desantes (FL)

John James (MI)

Jim Jordan (OH)

Marco Rubio (FL)

Ted Cruz (TX)

Gregg Abbott (TX)

Jeb Bush (FL)

Josh Romney (UT)

Donald Trump Jr. (NY)

Corey Gardner (CO)

Paul LePage (ME)

Kanye West (CA)

What Ifs

Alex Jones (TX)

Tucker Carlson (NY)

Ben Shapiro (CA)

Tom Brady (MA)

Mark Cuban (TX)

Dwayne Johnson (CA)

John Thune (SD)

Brian Kemp (GA)

Rick Scott (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How hurting in initial polls is the GOP in this scenario after 8 years of Trump? And how strong are the almost inevitable Third Party insurgent vote pollings after Trump's GOP leadership and several notable examples of Democratic weakness in dealing with it, and many voters being tired of both?

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2 hours ago, jdm06ltd said:

I am considering creating a 2024 "what if" Scenario. I have a really bold prediction for 2024, but I dont think I should say until I see how real it is. 

 

So anyways after 8 years of Trump, Democrats have plunged even further into dissary as the far left continues to dog moderates in primaries, Amy Klobachar and Pete Buttiegig have risen to prominence in the Democratic party....but with the far left in tow, and even some blue Dog Democrats pining for it 2024 should be interesting. 

Most likely

Amy Klobachar (MN)

Pete Buttiegig (IN)

Andrew Yang (NY)

Andrew Gillum (FL)

Cenk Uyger (CA)

Ron Wyden (OR)

Doug Jones (AL) 

Tim Ryan (OH)

John Delaney (MD)

Stacey Abrams (GA)

Ayana Pressley (MA)

Tim Kaine (VA)

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA)

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY)

Megyn Kelley (NY)

Andrew Quomo (NY)

Ralph Northam (VA)

Chelsea Clinton (NY)

 

GOP

 

Most Likely

Mike Pence (IN)

Ron Desantes (FL)

John James (MI)

Jim Jordan (OH)

Marco Rubio (FL)

Ted Cruz (TX)

Gregg Abbott (TX)

Jeb Bush (FL)

Josh Romney (UT)

Donald Trump Jr. (NY)

Corey Gardner (CO)

Paul LePage (ME)

Kanye West (CA)

What Ifs

Alex Jones (TX)

Tucker Carlson (NY)

Ben Shapiro (CA)

Tom Brady (MA)

Mark Cuban (TX)

Dwayne Johnson (CA)

John Thune (SD)

Brian Kemp (GA)

Rick Scott (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we do this I call Joseph Kennedy III, though I am not final cause I'd like to see initial polling 

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2 hours ago, jdm06ltd said:

I am considering creating a 2024 "what if" Scenario. I have a really bold prediction for 2024, but I dont think I should say until I see how real it is. 

 

So anyways after 8 years of Trump, Democrats have plunged even further into dissary as the far left continues to dog moderates in primaries, Amy Klobachar and Pete Buttiegig have risen to prominence in the Democratic party....but with the far left in tow, and even some blue Dog Democrats pining for it 2024 should be interesting. 

Most likely

Amy Klobachar (MN)

Pete Buttiegig (IN)

Andrew Yang (NY)

Andrew Gillum (FL)

Cenk Uyger (CA)

Ron Wyden (OR)

Doug Jones (AL) 

Tim Ryan (OH)

John Delaney (MD)

Stacey Abrams (GA)

Ayana Pressley (MA)

Tim Kaine (VA)

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA)

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY)

Megyn Kelley (NY)

Andrew Quomo (NY)

Ralph Northam (VA)

Chelsea Clinton (NY)

 

GOP

 

Most Likely

Mike Pence (IN)

Ron Desantes (FL)

John James (MI)

Jim Jordan (OH)

Marco Rubio (FL)

Ted Cruz (TX)

Gregg Abbott (TX)

Jeb Bush (FL)

Josh Romney (UT)

Donald Trump Jr. (NY)

Corey Gardner (CO)

Paul LePage (ME)

Kanye West (CA)

What Ifs

Alex Jones (TX)

Tucker Carlson (NY)

Ben Shapiro (CA)

Tom Brady (MA)

Mark Cuban (TX)

Dwayne Johnson (CA)

John Thune (SD)

Brian Kemp (GA)

Rick Scott (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adding Frm Speaker Paul Ryan (WI)to likely Candidates

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27 minutes ago, Patine said:

How hurting in initial polls is the GOP in this scenario after 8 years of Trump? And how strong are the almost inevitable Third Party insurgent vote pollings after Trump's GOP leadership and several notable examples of Democratic weakness in dealing with it, and many voters being tired of both?

@jdm06ltd Did you see this question? You might have missed it, as both @TheMiddlePolitical and my posts, and your two additional posts, blocked up a large amount of space by each quoting the entire long first post.

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@jdm06ltd You forgot Elizabeth Warren. She would likely be one of the progressive front runners alongside Andrew Yang, and she’s still young enough to run by 2024. Another thing to consider is the future of the Iowa caucus. With the disaster of 2020, will Iowa remain the first caucus? Will it switch to primary, meaning New Hampshire goes first instead? Will it remain the same, but lose News Power as less people trust it? Or will nothing fundamentally change?

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3 hours ago, Patine said:

@jdm06ltd Did you see this question? You might have missed it, as both @TheMiddlePolitical and my posts, and your two additional posts, blocked up a large amount of space by each quoting the entire long first post.

I saw it. Gonna use the game with the players moves. Just have to create the scenario

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35 minutes ago, jdm06ltd said:

I saw it. Gonna use the game with the players moves. Just have to create the scenario

But the question I was asking did not deal with players' moves, but initial popular attitudes of voters at the start toward the two main parties, and, after such political tumult and instability, the initial sense of voters very possibly turning to Third Parties, feeling disillusioned with the major parties during the events of the past eight years. It's the initial attitudes and the strength or weakness of partisan confidence by the voters, and pre-Primary polling I'm referring to.

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40 minutes ago, buenoboss said:

i'll take rick scott, the dark horse

I think this is probably a "dead horse," actually. Last updated in April, the thread-starter last appeared here in April, and I think he was stumped by my last question to him (or just didn't want to answer as the logical answer would unfold).

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Here is how I think polling would be for each

Amy Klobachar (MN)-7%

Pete Buttiegig (IN)-14%

Andrew Yang (NY)-6%

Andrew Gillum (FL)-1%

Cenk Uyger (CA)-0.1%

Ron Wyden (OR)-0.1%

Doug Jones (AL) 1%

Tim Ryan (OH) 2%

John Delaney (MD) 1%

Stacey Abrams (GA) 3%

Ayana Pressley (MA) 2%

Tim Kaine (VA) 10%

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA) 12%

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY) 22%

Megyn Kelley (NY) 1%

Andrew Quomo (NY) 16%

Ralph Northam (VA) 1%

Chelsea Clinton (NY) 4%

VP Kamala Harris (if Biden wins) 30%

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11 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Here is how I think polling would be for each

Amy Klobachar (MN)-7%

Pete Buttiegig (IN)-14%

Andrew Yang (NY)-6%

Andrew Gillum (FL)-1%

Cenk Uyger (CA)-0.1%

Ron Wyden (OR)-0.1%

Doug Jones (AL) 1%

Tim Ryan (OH) 2%

John Delaney (MD) 1%

Stacey Abrams (GA) 3%

Ayana Pressley (MA) 2%

Tim Kaine (VA) 10%

'What Ifs'

Joseph. P Kennedy (MA) 12%

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (NY) 22%

Megyn Kelley (NY) 1%

Andrew Quomo (NY) 16%

Ralph Northam (VA) 1%

Chelsea Clinton (NY) 4%

VP Kamala Harris (if Biden wins) 30%

But these are estimates without @jdm06ltd answering the all-important and vital background questions to this hypothetical scenario? And he was very evasive in answering them when he last logged in in April.

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This seems really fun, if this ends up becoming a reality then I want to play as Cenk Uygur. 

Edited by Cenzonico
Play as

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29 minutes ago, Cenzonico said:

This seems really fun, if this ends up becoming a reality then I want to play as Cenk Uygur. 

maybe someone else could make it a reality

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5 minutes ago, buenoboss said:

maybe someone else could make it a reality

Would that someone else be able to answer the needed background questions I posed to @jdm06ltd, I wonder?

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

Would that someone else be able to answer the needed background questions I posed to @jdm06ltd, I wonder?

 

1 hour ago, buenoboss said:

maybe someone else could make it a reality

I'd be willing to run this, especially because I have enough time on my hands, I have learned a number of things from the (failed) US Parliament RP I ran, and because I can, in fact, answer your questions @Patine. I'll mainly focus on the 2 main third parties in America, as the LP's development following 2020 would answer the question you posed regarding independents and third parties in American.

1. The Jorgenson/Cohen Libertarian ticket would fail to have gained any ground in the 2020 Election, and would backslide to a weak performance, barely hitting 0.7% in the final results. Jorgenson , a unity candidate for the party, appeasing both moderates and more radical factions in the party, and Cohen, a self-described anarchist and member of LP-Radical, would be seen by party leaders as having failed due to attempts to satisfy the radicals in the party. Meanwhile, following Biden's defeat, countless independents, former Republicans, and disaffected voters would disavow the 2 party system, either immediately after the Election, or during Trump's second term. These 2 events would lead to a move by the LP, thanks to both a flood of new, moderate members of the party, and to the hands of party leaders, towards a more moderate message. One focused less on "pure" libertarianism, and more on providing a centre-left social message and centre-right economic message designed to attract independents and moderates, with heavy focus on the ideals of working government(we are talking about 4 more years of Trump here) and principled, democratic leadership. The party would begin to put heavy emphasis on ranked choice voting, reforming the Electoral College, and other policies to reform American democracy to represent this shift. The party would be polling at around 10-11% on a generic ballot, and would be surprisingly strong thanks to the shift in focus and platform. However, radicals in the party would be steaming, and promising to burn the party down if 2024 does not go their way. Meanwhile, a growing faction of the party would call for an appeal to disaffected progressives, youth voters, and left-wingers, representing the call made by Vermin Supreme in 2020. For LP candidates, I think I would put the following, ranked by likelihood to win the nomination.

LP 2024 candidates:

Justin Amash(Amash lost his seat in 2020, however he is only more jubilant in 2024 to represent the LP nationally. He represents a strong mix between the moderate faction and the radicals in the party, supporting and espousing libertarian ideals and principles, while also borrowing some ideas and messaging from the moderates. Party favorite.)

Bill Weld(Coming off of his failure to even be an afterthought in the 2020 GOP Primaries, Weld would recommit to the LP in the hopes to finding a political home there. He holds some libertarian ideals, however he is the most popular and pronounced moderate in the field, representing the moderate ideals I listed)

Vermin Supreme(Having made a strong showing in the 2020 nomination process, Vermin would come back ready to continue espousing a message based on attracting the youth vote and progressives.)

Jacob Hornberger(The runner-up in 2020, Hornberger is a radical who in 2020 threatened to not endorse the party's nominee. He is now back to continue espousing a purist view of libertarianism.)

Rocky De La Fuente(In 2020 he was even asked by the LP Chair to run as a Libertarian. He turned the offer down, and would run with an obscure third party, going no where, but he is now prepared to join the LP. He represents similar ideals to Weld, but even more removed from base libertarianism.)

 

2. For the Green Party, they would receive an uptick in support following a weak(0.5%) performance in 2020 thanks to disaffected Bernie supporters and progressives, however would really go nowhere beyond this. Polling at 2% I imagine their candidates would look as follows. 

GP 2024 Candidates:

Jesse Ventura(A more moderate voice designed to capture more of the vote beyond the party's base. Party favorite.)

Ajamu Baraka(The VP candidate in 2016, he is a strong candidate for those in the party's leadership and activist base, as well as for the party in general.)

Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry(Representing a more radical and pronounced form of the Green Party's message, she is a strong candidate this cycle, pronouncing a strong message based on Civil Rights and social justice.)

 

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1 minute ago, BetOnBeto said:

Where is Beto in these polls???

 

I didn't make the options, so you can just choose a plausible candidate or one from the list, and once we have enough people I will begin formulating initial polling.

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On 4/25/2020 at 2:44 PM, Zenobiyl said:

@jdm06ltd You forgot Elizabeth Warren. She would likely be one of the progressive front runners alongside Andrew Yang, and she’s still young enough to run by 2024. Another thing to consider is the future of the Iowa caucus. With the disaster of 2020, will Iowa remain the first caucus? Will it switch to primary, meaning New Hampshire goes first instead? Will it remain the same, but lose News Power as less people trust it? Or will nothing fundamentally change?

Though @Zenobiyl hasn't been active in a month, I will answer his question. I will be altering the primary schedule for the Democratic Primaries. Iowa will be moved to Super Tuesday, making New Hampshire the first state in the nomination process, and reducing the number of early states to 3. Along with Iowa, a handful of states, with their importance removed thanks to Biden's dominance and the rise of COVID-19 in 2020, will move their primaries to Super Tuesday. Leading to around 20 states voting for the Democrats on Super Tuesday. I won't name specific states, as I will expand this scenario once we have enough people, but that is a rough look at how the primary schedule is changing for Democrats. For the Republicans, expect little change.

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13 hours ago, buenoboss said:

Mrblood, can you make some more and/or better candidates. Like some of these candidates 😬

I won't make an entirely new list, just because I do agree with quite a few names on the list, and because going through to change it is tedious considering all things, but you can choose a candidate which is not on the list, but who is likely to run. And for the Democrats, I will say that candidates like Tammy Duckworth(Biden's running mate in the scenario I am constructing),  Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris are all candidates I hope people will choose. On another note, I'll be fine with starting this once we have 3 or more candidates(all of ideological variation and importance) running for each major party, and at least one Libertarian.

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