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vcczar

Biden leads Trump Decisively

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Biden leads Trump by 12 pts among Independents. In one poll, Biden is leading Trump nationally by over 10 pts. 

This, despite Trump getting a Coronavirus boost. Biden is largely sidelined. 
 

What accounts for this?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491992-poll-finds-biden-with-11-point-national-lead-on-trump

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That’s an interesting question,I personally think this election is going to come down to a state or two,and Trump will lose the Pv no matter what. I do think Biden has a chance of loseing,and a I am a bit worried to see him in debates.

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9 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

That’s an interesting question,I personally think this election is going to come down to a state or two,and Trump will lose the Pv no matter what. I do think Biden has a chance of loseing,and a I am a bit worried to see him in debates.

I'm not worried about Biden in a debate vs. Trump. They're both going to be incoherent. 

I think the election will be down to MI and PA. I think if Biden wins those, he'll win because he'll also have WI, FL, NC, or AZ. If Trump wins PA and MI before we get news of other states, then Biden could already be declared the loser. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not worried about Biden in a debate vs. Trump. They're both going to be incoherent. 

I think the election will be down to MI and PA. I think if Biden wins those, he'll win because he'll also have WI, FL, NC, or AZ. If Trump wins PA and MI before we get news of other states, then Biden could already be declared the loser. 

Do you think there being 300k more votes for Democratic candidates this year in Michigan says anything?

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8 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Do you think there being 300k more votes for Democratic candidates this year in Michigan says anything?

Possibly. I don't know often things like that translate to the general election. 

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27 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Probably an outlier. 2 other polls released have Biden +4 or +5.

A YouGov poll was just published today too. Biden at +9. 

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Recent national polls have Biden anywhere from +2 to +11. What they all agree on is that Biden is ahead nationally. RCP average is Biden +6.7. A healthy national lead, to be sure.

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Recent national polls have Biden anywhere from +2 to +11. What they all agree on is that Biden is ahead nationally. RCP average is Biden +6.7. A healthy national lead, to be sure.

Why do you think Biden is averaging +6.7 despite Trump's approval still at a near high for him at 45%? It seems Trump was more competitive when he was a 42% approved president. It's quite odd. 

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10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Why do you think Biden is averaging +6.7 despite Trump's approval still at a near high for him at 45%? It seems Trump was more competitive when he was a 42% approved president. It's quite odd. 

Who knows. I don't think approval ratings are a very good way to approximate voter intentions.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Who knows. I don't think approval ratings are a very good way to approximate voter intentions.

What's interesting is Clinton was between +7 and +10 this time in 2016 vs. Trump. 

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49 minutes ago, vcczar said:

What's interesting is Clinton was between +7 and +10 this time in 2016 vs. Trump. 

Interesting.

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Polls at this time in the process have been notorious for not being correct (and in many cases being way off from the actual result).  Plus, the state-wide polls are the ones that really matter.

This time around, Trump's ground effort is a lot more organized, so he's going to be a better positioned to win the battleground states which isn't good for Dems (since he won them last time around with a weak organization).

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