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vcczar

Is Biden a stronger nominee than Clinton?

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As soon as Biden picks a VP, I'll be posting updates on Biden's chances of beating Trump. I will use the following polls to suggest his strengths:

  • General election polls vs. Trump in battleground states and comparing them with Clinton vs. Trump polls at the time. 
  • General election national polls vs Trump and comparing them with Clinton vs. Trump polls at the time. 
  • Direction of the Country Polls and comparing them with Obama's polls at the time. 
  • Presidential Approval polls for Trump and comparing the with his Coronavirus height of 45% approval. 
  • Favorability of Biden and Trump and comparing them with favorability of Clinton and Trump in 2016
  • Undecided and 3rd party voters compared with similar numbers for 2016.

The Direction of the Country Poll (Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?) is probably the strongest poll to look at outside of state-by-state poll. If this goes down in the final week of the election, then Trump's numbers could be lower than they appear in polls. 

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Biden is stronger in terms of charisma, likability, and ... he's not currently under investigation by the FBI, that we know of.

On the other hand, Clinton was mentally on top of things, although there were questions about her health (culminating with her collapsing in September, and her campaign saying she had pneumonia).

I think part of Biden's prospects is how bad his misremembering things, word salads, and so on get. The good news for Biden is that, for the time being, there won't be a taxing campaigning schedule.

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden is stronger in terms of charisma, likability, and ... he's not currently under investigation by the FBI, that we know of.

On the other hand, Clinton was mentally on top of things, although there were questions about her health (culminating with her collapsing in September, and her campaign saying she had pneumonia).

I think part of Biden's prospects is how bad his misremembering things, word salads, and so on get. The good news for Biden is that, for the time being, there won't be a taxing campaigning schedule.

I do think incoherency, advanced age, and sexual assault allegations are all things that hurt Biden's candidacy; however, I think the affect of this is more or less nullified considering Trump also has all three of these weaknesses. Biden has the advantage of likability and a more liberal platform; Trump has the advantage of media mastery and a more conservative platform. 

I'm still worried that Biden is going to rely too much on his Obama connection, which would probably only be a good tactic if Obama is at 60%+ favorability. Generally, a change candidate has a better shot at beating an incumbent. Biden is less of a change candidate than Clinton, since she was at least a woman. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm still worried that Biden is going to rely too much on his Obama connection

Ya, big problem. He needs a compelling change vision, not a 'let's go back to Obama' campaign, IMHO.

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, big problem. He needs a compelling change vision, not a 'let's go back to Obama' campaign, IMHO.

That won't happen he told donors that "nothing will fundamentally change" and if he does I'm really not sure that would be enough to win over people as his past record is pretty terrible on policies so the trust will not be there.

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, big problem. He needs a compelling change vision, not a 'let's go back to Obama' campaign, IMHO.

Agreed. I'd be worried if the candidate wasn't facing an incumbent with 45% or less approval who is likely to soon be dealing with a recession. If Biden wins, he didn't earn it. It would be a situation in which just about any Democrat could have won it. 

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2 minutes ago, MBDemSoc said:

That won't happen he told donors that "nothing will fundamentally change" and if he does I'm really not sure that would be enough to win over people as his past record is pretty terrible on policies so the trust will not be there.

Ya, it's why Biden is in many people's minds a placeholder candidate - few people really think he's a compelling candidate, but they don't care, because they dislike Trump so much. Maybe that's enough ... but wouldn't it be great if the Dem candidate was a compelling candidate?

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Ya, it's why Biden is in many people's minds a placeholder candidate - few people really think he's a compelling candidate, but they don't care, because they dislike Trump so much. Maybe that's enough ... but wouldn't it be great if the Dem candidate was a compelling candidate?

As soon as a compelling candidate took the lead the media and other Democratic candidates worked their hardest to kill the lead and it worked unfortunately. 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Biden is stronger in terms of charisma, likability, and ... he's not currently under investigation by the FBI, that we know of.

These are mainly the points why I agree on that he's a better candidate than Clinton. However, he is still a bad candidate. Allegations of sexual harassment should not be overlooked. We don't know if it's true, but if it is we should remember that Trump's standard should not become the standard in each election. Biden lacks the ''Heineken-effect'' as Dominic Raab once put it. He cannot refresh the parts of the electorate who need to be refreshed in order to get them enthusiastically enough to vote for him.

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I think 2016 Clinton would have been a better President than 2020 Biden.

But as a candidate, I expect 2020 Biden to significantly outperform 2016 Clinton, as pre-baked hate against Biden is nowhere near the pre-baked hate against Clinton was.

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I think 2016 Clinton would have been a better President than 2020 Biden.

But as a candidate, I expect 2020 Biden to significantly outperform 2016 Clinton, as pre-baked hate against Biden is nowhere near the pre-baked hate against Clinton was.

I think that's how I feel as well. 

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10 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I think 2016 Clinton would have been a better President than 2020 Biden.

But as a candidate, I expect 2020 Biden to significantly outperform 2016 Clinton, as pre-baked hate against Biden is nowhere near the pre-baked hate against Clinton was.

I agree, but I don't know if Biden will win.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I agree, but I don't know if Biden will win.

I agree that he might not win -- a country that elected Donald Trump in the first place is not a country that I understand as well as I used to think I did.  But I do think he will do better than Clinton did, electoral vote wise.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

I agree that he might not win -- a country that elected Donald Trump in the first place is not a country that I understand as well as I used to think I did.  But I do think he will do better than Clinton did, electoral vote wise.

Almost certainly

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I was not afraid of Clinton dying on the campaign trail.

I am afraid of Biden dying or becoming medically incapacitated any day now.

 

(Though I still considered Clinton too old, and she had that bad physical public collapse incident which Trump turned into an ad.)

Mind Treasury: Hillary Clinton Collapses in New York During 9/11 ...

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I think he is,  but whether it is enough to win in November I don't know.

He has a lot of the same policy problems that Clinton did (support for free trade, foreign policy blunders like Iraq war, status quo establishment candidates), all of which are going to be capitalized by Trump to the fullest. While he doesn't have the FBI investigation and other scandals of Hillary, he does have the sexual assault allegation and cognitive decline issues. 

There is no doubt in my mind that it is clear he is more popular than Hillary, and that showed in the primary. Biden took back a lot of the rural, white working class voters that Bernie won overwhelmingly against Hillary. Why? Sexism is a part and then his overall likability and image (though that could be linked with sexism too) is another part of it. 

Either way it does seem Biden is a stronger nominee, but like I said, he still has plenty of issues he will need to overcome to win. 

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