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We've heard a lot of 'worst case' scenarios for the novel coronavirus. Perhaps 1-2% of the population dies, mostly old and in particular those with existing health problems. That's bad.

Have you heard much about 'worst case' scenarios for national or global collapse given extreme measures to control the coronavirus, though?

Perhaps people should start more seriously considering these scenarios, and weight public health actions to control the novel coronavirus accordingly - apples-to-apples.

If we are going to compare apples-to-apples, it's not 'save 1-2% of the population' (worst case) vs. 'an economic hiccup' (not at all worst case). Rather, it's 'save 1-2% of the population' vs. 'economic and social collapse'.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

We've heard a lot of 'worst case' scenarios for the novel coronavirus. Perhaps 1-2% of the population dies, mostly old and in particular those with existing health problems. That's bad.

Have you heard much about 'worst case' scenarios for national or global collapse, though?

Perhaps people should start more seriously considering these scenarios, and weight public health actions to control the novel coronavirus accordingly - apples-to-apples.

If we are going to compare apples-to-apples, it's not 'save 1-2% of the population' (worst case) vs. 'an economic hiccup' (not at all worst case). Rather, it's 'save 1-2% of the population' vs. 'economic and social collapse'.

The Horseman of Pestilence is only second up in Revelation, I believe.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

We deployed Disaster Mortuary Assistance teams to Michigan today.

 

Ready for complete economic collapse?

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Ready for complete economic collapse?

Perhaps a recognition of the failures and flaws just ignored and brushed under the carpet about the vaunted and praised Capitalist system leading to massive economic reform - massive reforms that only tend to happen in times of great crisis, if at all.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ready for complete economic collapse?

If the economy collapses due to the federal response to the Coronavirus, where do you think Trump will rank among US Presidents? 

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Just now, Patine said:

Perhaps a recognition of the failures and flaws just ignored and brushed under the carpet about the vaunted and praised Capitalist system leading to massive economic reform - massive reforms that only tend to happen in times of great crisis, if at all.

It's not just the capitalist system. It's that we have a very complex global economy. Part A shutting down over here has an affect on all sorts of other parts. Now multiply that by a million times and that's what's happening.

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Just now, vcczar said:

If the economy collapses due to the federal response to the Coronavirus, where do you think Trump will rank among US Presidents? 

I'm talking about the global economy. The U.S.'s response has been similar to many other countries.

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

It's not just the capitalist system. It's that we have a very complex global economy. Part A shutting down over here has an affect on all sorts of other parts. Now multiply that by a million times and that's what's happening.

Well, it's more Capitalistic globally then it used by be by far. Even the People's Republic of China is pretty much mostly economically Capitalist, with Communism being mostly in terms of political governance. Let's call a spade a spade.

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Just now, Patine said:

Well, it's more Capitalistic globally then it used by be by far.

Sure, but it's not that it's capitalist that's the problem right here.

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm talking about the global economy. The U.S.'s response has been similar to many other countries.

Hey, my apologies for this not relating to this topic and you can delete if you want but I started a topic that I tagged you in yesterday referring to an error message I received on President Infinity and I know you're probably busy but was wondering if there's any way you can help me? I shot you an email yesterday afternoon.

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sure, but it's not that it's capitalist that's the problem right here.

No, but the biggest problems stem from modern Capitalistic viewpoints and ways of doing business. Like having 75% of the world's mass-produced, factory-made goods made in China and shipped by boat everyone else. And eliminating the old warehouses and having "just-in-time, on-demand" retail practices. And not having a commercial status of being formally employed, but not able to work for an unknown period because of crises like this. And such, that is the result of Capitalist government and corporate practices deriving from Capitalistic ways of viewing things, usually with very little long-term vision beyond maximal profit margins NOW!

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29 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm talking about the global economy. The U.S.'s response has been similar to many other countries.

Similar but not the same. We didn't react very quick, and the state by state response has varied, likely making the virus last even longer in the US. Federal responses in countries like Germany and Denmark were quick and succinct, leaving no room for interpretation. The states are in a free-for-all like situation now.

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9 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Ready for complete economic collapse?

What do you mean when you say complete economic collapse?  You must be meaning some other definition of the phrase, when the stock market is still higher than it was before Trump became President and they just passed a two TRILLION dollar stimulus package to help both individuals and businesses alike.

I assure you our millionaires and billionaires are going to find a way to remain millionaires and billionaires.  They’re just trying to also find a way to stay alive, so it’s a balancing act.

 

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17 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

What do you mean when you say complete economic collapse?  You must be meaning some other definition of the phrase, when the stock market is still higher than it was before Trump became President and they just passed a two TRILLION dollar stimulus package to help both individuals and businesses alike.

I assure you our millionaires and billionaires are going to find a way to remain millionaires and billionaires.  They’re just trying to also find a way to stay alive, so it’s a balancing act.

 

I think his paranoid and fervent imagination is expecting something on the caliber of the Fall of Rome...

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5 hours ago, Actinguy said:

What do you mean when you say complete economic collapse?

What's the worst case scenario for the economy and society due to actions being taken to prevent the spread of coronavirus?

Here's what isn't worst case. 30% unemployment. Bankrupting of social programs. Many people's livelihoods and businesses in ruins.

Worst case looks more like riots, food shortages, and a complete breakdown of the modern, global economy.

When reasoning about the reasonableness of public health actions, we can't just listen to 'worst case' scenarios for the spread of an infectious disease. We have to looks at scenarios across the board.

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15 hours ago, Patine said:

No, but the biggest problems stem from modern Capitalistic viewpoints and ways of doing business.

Good point. But again, if people just stop working (and there stop buying en masse), you're going to have economic collapse, whatever system you're in. But yes, tendencies of modern capitalism have exacerbated dependencies, you're right.

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5 hours ago, Patine said:

I think his paranoid and fervent imagination is expecting something on the caliber of the Fall of Rome...

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. If we are focusing on worst case scenarios for the spread of novel coronavirus, we should also be focusing on worst case scenarios that come from actions to reduce the spread of novel coronavirus. This is basic risk analysis.

In reality, we probably shouldn't be focusing on worst case scenarios for novel coronavirus. Focusing on worst case scenarios tends to lead to suboptimal decision making.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Worst case looks more like riots, food shortages, and a complete breakdown of the modern, global economy.

You don't think that happens when the death rate increases significantly because people can't stay away from parties for a couple of weeks, overwhelming hospitals?

We're not talking about "worst case" for the infectious disease.  We are talking about ACTUAL case in several US Cities right now.  NYC is getting the most attention, but Detroit is right behind them, and Indianapolis is heading there.

 

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6 hours ago, Actinguy said:

they just passed a two TRILLION dollar stimulus package to help both individuals and businesses alike.

That's not very much given what's happening to the economy. Probably needs to be 10x that. Perhaps it will be once we're through this.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

We're not talking about "worst case" for the infectious disease.

What's your worst case for coronavirus? (Americans dead, hospitalized, and so on)

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

That's not very much given what's happening to the economy. Probably needs to be 10x that. Perhaps it will be once we're through this.

Part of that bill instructs companies to rehire the people they laid off -- that's part of what the money is for.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

What's your worst case for coronavirus? (Americans dead, hospitalized, and so on)

Hospitals completely overrun, so that Coronavirus isn't even your primary concern anymore.  

People no longer get treatment for damned near anything, not just Coronavirus.  Overall deathrate significantly increases.

Front line employees are included in that, so now nurses and doctors are dying.  So are truck drivers, grocery store employees, etc.  The entire supply chain disintegrates.

Businesses shut down -- between the extremely escalated health risk and lack of products to sell.  Economic crisis still happens, but with way more dead people.

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6 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

because people can't stay away from parties for a couple of weeks

That's what I've argued - strong, brief measures to give us time. Given what I can see at this point, that would be reasonable.

But that's not what politicians are talking about. Virginia's Governor announced a lockdown until June 6th.

 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

That's what I've argued - strong, brief measures to give us time. Given what I can see at this point, that would be reasonable.

But that's not what politicians are talking about. Virginia's Governor announced a lockdown until June 6th.

 

Yeah, man.

That's how long it's going to take.

There's no point to staying in your house for just two weeks, if it's going to surge back up again in week three.

They can always shorten the lockdown later if things take a dramatic turn for the better.

But until then, might as well be honest with people.  

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