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TheMiddlePolitical

2024 Primaries "Buttiegieg loses GE to Trump in 2020" -also A prediction on who would win the primary

Who?  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Democrats

    • Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Would be 35 by inauguration day)
    • Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams
      0
    • Sen. Cory Booker
      0
    • Sen. Kamala Harris
      0
    • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Would be 73)
      0
    • Gov. Gavin Newsom
    • Gov. Andrew Cuomo
      0
    • Gov. Andy Breshear
      0
    • Sen. Joe Kennedy (assuming he wins this year)
    • Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Drops out after Super Tuesday in 2020)*
    • Businessman Andrew Yang*
    • Businessman Tom Steyer*
      0
    • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand*
    • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
  2. 2. Republicans

    • VP Mike Pence
    • Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley
    • Sen. Josh Hawley
    • Gov. Ron Desantis
    • Mr. Donald Trump Jr.
    • Sen. Marco Rubio
    • Gov. Greg Abbot
    • Sen. Tim Scott


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This is just as fun poll,whether you are Democrat or Republican,in 2024 who would you like to have as the nominee for the Democratic Party 

(Obviously I hope Bernie wins-or any Democrat,but again just a fun poll)

Democrats choose both

Republicans choose both

 

Buttiegieg loses the GE to Trump,Gaining back PA and MI, but losing elsewhere,and losing the GE.

Trumps approval at the end of his second term is about the same at the end of his first 43%

Trump continues what he is doing now,avoiding any major wars,though having yet again many scandals.

I think there's two different things that will happen Depending on if a moderate or progressive wins the nomination for the primary this year,and loses the GE

If Bernie or Warren wins, and then loses the GE,Progressiveism dies down slightly

If Pete or another moderate wins, the part shifts even further left

pretty simple.

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I am making another thread to do a write up using this polls candidates (and to garner some info for the write up)

 

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I don’t know much about Kennedy, but I did see him speak during Warren’s ceremony when she declared for the Presidency, and he was absolutely electric.  He was fully supportive and it wasn’t intentional, but he totally upstaged her.  When she came out on stage and started speaking, I thought “aww, I wanted to listen more to Kennedy.”

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Just now, Actinguy said:

I don’t know much about Kennedy, but I did see him speak during Warren’s ceremony when she declared for the Presidency, and he was absolutely electric.  He was fully supportive and it wasn’t intentional, but he totally upstaged her.  When she came out on stage and started speaking, I thought “aww, I wanted to listen more to Kennedy.”

I almost think him running for Senate (against somebody who is a Progressive leader) is just to set him up to run for the presidency.

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1 hour ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

This is just as fun poll,whether you are Democrat or Republican,in 2024 who would you like to have as the nominee for the Democratic Party 

(Obviously I hope Bernie wins-or any Democrat,but again just a fun poll)

Democrats choose both

Republicans choose both

 

Buttiegieg loses the GE to Trump,Gaining back PA and MI, but losing elsewhere,and losing the GE.

Trumps approval at the end of his second term is about the same at the end of his first 43%

Trump continues what he is doing now,avoiding any major wars,though having yet again many scandals.

I think there's two different things that will happen Depending on if a moderate or progressive wins the nomination for the primary this year,and loses the GE

If Bernie or Warren wins, and then loses the GE,Progressiveism dies down slightly

If Pete or another moderate wins, the part shifts even further left

pretty simple.

Of course, you're assuming the Republican Party as we know it today will still be standing, and will, judging by your choice of candidates (save for one) be carrying on with pre-2016 business as usual as though a two-term Trump Administration was just a hiccup or speedbump, easily gotten over and quickly recovered from, and not a potential partisan mortal wound.

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

Of course, you're assuming the Republican Party as we know it today will still be standing, and will, judging by your choice of candidates (save for one) be carrying on with pre-2016 business as usual as though a two-term Trump Administration was just a hiccup or speedbump, easily gotten over and quickly recovered from, and not a potential partisan mortal wound.

In the scenario he presents, in which Trump wins re-election, this is likely to have been the reality of the Republican Party for 8 years.   I don’t know who a couple of the people he lists are, but he does specifically Includes Trump’s VP, Trump’s former UN Ambassador, and Trump’s own son.  So I don’t get where your take is coming from.

 

 

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I voted Yang mainly because by 2024 he will likely be much more in the limelight, either through taking a senate seat or taking the seat of mayor of New York City. I feel specifically as mayor of NYC he could trial run many of his policies, as well as solving many of the aching issues in the city. The Democratic party will also be wounded, which may allow Yang to unite parts of the moderate wing and progressive wing under his banner. AOC would be too ideologically isolated by the moderate faction and media to pull of too much, and Warren has ruined much of her support among progressives in the course of her run.

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1 minute ago, Mr.Blood said:

I voted Yang mainly because by 2024 he will likely be much more in the limelight, either through taking a senate seat or taking the seat of mayor of New York City. I feel specifically as mayor of NYC he could trial run many of his policies, as well as solving many of the aching issues in the city. The Democratic party will also be wounded, which may allow Yang to unite parts of the moderate wing and progressive wing under his banner. AOC would be too ideologically isolated by the moderate faction and media to pull of too much, and Warren has ruined much of her support among progressives in the course of her run.

It would be hard for him to get a Sen seat for NY. Schumer will be there for awhile, unless AOC runs against him. Gillibrand will be there for awhile. If Schumer retires or Gillibrand joins the cabinet, you'll likely see AOC vs. Yang vs. someone establishment, like Caroline Kennedy (JFK's daughter, who was strongly considered for the seat once HClinton was made Sec of State)

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

It would be hard for him to get a Sen seat for NY. Schumer will be there for awhile, unless AOC runs against him. Gillibrand will be there for awhile. If Schumer retires or Gillibrand joins the cabinet, you'll likely see AOC vs. Yang vs. someone establishment, like Caroline Kennedy (JFK's daughter, who was strongly considered for the seat once HClinton was made Sec of State)

What do you think of Yang for NYC Mayor? Now that intrigues me.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It would be hard for him to get a Sen seat for NY. Schumer will be there for awhile, unless AOC runs against him. Gillibrand will be there for awhile. If Schumer retires or Gillibrand joins the cabinet, you'll likely see AOC vs. Yang vs. someone establishment, like Caroline Kennedy (JFK's daughter, who was strongly considered for the seat once HClinton was made Sec of State)

Likely, and that's why I do think NYC mayor is more likely for his career. Though the senate race you described would make an interesting test of the wings of the Democratic party, with many of Yang's policies mixing into both wings of the party.

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Just now, TheMiddlePolitical said:

What do you think of Yang for NYC Mayor? Now that intrigues me.

I'm wondering if he'd even want that. It's kind of a thankless position. I can't think of the last NYC mayor that people in NYC actually liked by the end of their service. Maybe Ed Koch? I think Yang would rather be Governor. 

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40 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I can't think of the last NYC mayor that people in NYC actually liked by the end of their service.

Sounds kind of like all of the Canadian PM's in my lifetime.

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8 minutes ago, Patine said:

Sounds kind of like all of the Canadian PM's in my lifetime.

Obama was probably most popular when he took office and as he was leaving office. Bill Clinton also seemed to have been most popular during the end of his presidency. Ronald Reagan did too despite Iran Contra. If you don't count people that died in office or were killed in office, I think you have to go back to Coolidge to find another president that was popular as they were leaving office. Before him, Theodore Roosevelt. 

Thus, since 1900, we've had only 5 presidents that were popular as they left office for their successor: ThRoosevelt, Coolidge, Reagan, Clinton, Obama. Three are recent, which seems unusual. Two are liberal, two are conservative, one is arguably moderate (Clinton). If you included all presidents, to this list could be added (excluding those killed or died in office), you get possibly Polk, Jackson, Monroe, maybe Madison, maybe Jefferson, and maybe Washington. It's sad we don't have polls then, so this is all a guess. 

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3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I don’t know much about Kennedy, but I did see him speak during Warren’s ceremony when she declared for the Presidency, and he was absolutely electric.  He was fully supportive and it wasn’t intentional, but he totally upstaged her.  When she came out on stage and started speaking, I thought “aww, I wanted to listen more to Kennedy.”

He had a terribly embarassing SOTU response. That was the only place I had ever seen him and he had the charisma of a wet rag, not living up to his last name at all.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

He had a terribly embarassing SOTU response. That was the only place I had ever seen him and he had the charisma of a wet rag, not living up to his last name at all.

Interesting!  Was that before or after Warren declared for the Presidency?  Maybe he's the kind of speaker who needs a live audience?

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3 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

He had a terribly embarassing SOTU response. That was the only place I had ever seen him and he had the charisma of a wet rag, not living up to his last name at all.

 

1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Interesting!  Was that before or after Warren declared for the Presidency?  Maybe he's the kind of speaker who needs a live audience?

I think the lip balm he had all over his mouth was the main cause of his lack of charisma. He's given some Kennedy-esque speeches in the House. You can Google them. His SOTU speech was good in content but kind of a let down, mostly for his appearance, but also because it seems to scripted, as if it was written by someone else, and he didn't really have his heart into it. Stacey Abrams had a similar problem. She was far less energized in her SOTU address than she usually is. Can't think of a single good SOTU response by anyone of any party now that I think about it. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

 

I think the lip balm he had all over his mouth was the main cause of his lack of charisma. He's given some Kennedy-esque speeches in the House. You can Google them. His SOTU speech was good in content but kind of a let down, mostly for his appearance, but also because it seems to scripted, as if it was written by someone else, and he didn't really have his heart into it. Stacey Abrams had a similar problem. She was far less energized in her SOTU address than she usually is. Can't think of a single good SOTU response by anyone of any party now that I think about it. 

Gretchen Whitmer's was fine but yes, SOTU responses are kinda cursed by their nature. You go from the grandeur of the Presidency with Congress, Cabinet, Court, and Joint Chiefs before him to some weirdo in a dark room or better yet, a diner.

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2 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Gretchen Whitmer's was fine but yes, SOTU responses are kinda cursed by their nature. You go from the grandeur of the Presidency with Congress, Cabinet, Court, and Joint Chiefs before him to some weirdo in a dark room or better yet, a diner.

It's filmed and otherwise produced more like a commercial but with no action scenes and only one the one-sided comments. It's just awkward. They should just have the response in the same room as the SOTU, but after the president. Attendance will be officially optional, so that the opposing party doesn't have to sit through it. They can just fill the crowd with supporters. This would give the opposition a chance to see what someone might look like as a president giving a speech to Congress. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It's filmed and otherwise produced more like a commercial but with no action scenes and only one the one-sided comments. It's just awkward. They should just have the response in the same room as the SOTU, but after the president. Attendance will be officially optional, so that the opposing party doesn't have to sit through it. They can just fill the crowd with supporters. This would give the opposition a chance to see what someone might look like as a president giving a speech to Congress. 

Favorite response

 

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When it comes to the Republicans, Pence leads, so I think he's highly possible. Trump, Jr. and Haley are also possible (but what experience does Trump Jr. have anyway?).

I voted Whitmer in the poll, because I thought she might be possible in 2024, but on second thought I think Klobuchar is more possible. Stacey Abrams is a possibility as well. I don't know how Harris will do next time if she comes out.

I don't think Warren will do well next time.  She did poorly this time. Plus, she will be older then.

Booker and Yang performed poorly as well.

Steyer is boring, a billionaire, and unlikable.

Cuomo had a chance of running, but New Yorkers don't seem to like him, so he declined. I don't see him running in the future.

Breshear did win in a red state, but I hardly know anything about him.

I tend to view Newsom as a cheat and a liar. Plus he said that becoming elected President is in his opinion the most miserable thing to happen.

Kennedy's name could work magic. He's young as well.

Gillibrand? The only thing she talks about is women. "There's are War on Women! Women are suffering! Women are dying!, etc. etc." Plus, I don't see a leader in Gillibrand.

And why, for goodness sake are people fascinated with AOC? She has hardly any experience, and she is somehow regarded as some woman of great wisdom.

 

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1 hour ago, Jinsu Kim said:

And why, for goodness sake are people fascinated with AOC? She has hardly any experience, and she is somehow regarded as some woman of great wisdom.

I liked AOC when I first became aware of her (the backfired Republican attack on her dance video got me to like her -- before that, I didn't know she existed).  Started following her on Twitter, etc.

But @vcczar eventually mentioned that she's just a LIberal Donald Trump...meaning, I think, that she's just in it for the attention, she would rather fight than actually achieve anything, and that she uses Twitter as her primary communication method in an unprofessional way.  Ever since he mentioned that, I haven't been able to unsee it.  I'm no longer an AOC fan.

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I liked AOC when I first became aware of her (the backfired Republican attack on her dance video got me to like her -- before that, I didn't know she existed).  Started following her on Twitter, etc.

But @vcczar eventually mentioned that she's just a LIberal Donald Trump...meaning, I think, that she's just in it for the attention, she would rather fight than actually achieve anything, and that she uses Twitter as her primary communication method in an unprofessional way.  Ever since he mentioned that, I haven't been able to unsee it.  I'm no longer an AOC fan.

I think AOC really wants to achieve things. I don't think she's just saying things to be cool. I think she's more authentic than Gabbard and Trump, but I think she's narcissistic, ambitious, and has a false sense of her abilities in relations to others similar to these two. Her ambition is akin to Ted Cruz, who basically immediately presumed he was a Senate leader the second he took his oath in the Senate. I remember seeing Cruz bolt forward ahead of the other Senate freshmen, even though he wasn't position to be first, to sign the oath book (or whatever that book is they sign). AOC has that same impatience to lead, make changes, flex power, or whatever they're hoping to do. The difference between Gabbard, Trump, and AOC is, to Cruz and Gabbard's credit, I don't see them as immature. Trump and AOC still have a prominent "teenage girl" strain about them that seems a little out of place with being a politician or any authority figure. I do think AOC could mature, rise to the leadership and change-bringer that she hopes to become, but that often requires facing some sort of humbling set back. AOC, Trump, Gabbard, and Cruz all have this sense of inevitable immortality about them too. I think AOC sees herself as the heir of Bernie Sanders and possibly the first woman president in 2024 or 2028. I think Trump has no concept that he will physically die and that a world can exist after him or that the world existed before him--he thinks he is the world. Gabbard, I feel, will start a new political party that tries to unite Green and Libertarians and anti-war independents. I think Cruz thinks he'll be president and will be the conservative figurehead of the 21st century, a 21st century Reagan. The thing they all also have in common is that they aren't likable outside of their base. The thing with FDR, Reagan, Lincoln, was that they had great likability and respect outside of their base, although they were still objects of hate by some. 

I find myself both liking and disliking AOC. I like what she says (not the stuff she says just to get attention or start fights), I just wish it was a different woman saying it. 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think AOC really wants to achieve things. I don't think she's just saying things to be cool. I think she's more authentic than Gabbard and Trump, but I think she's narcissistic, ambitious, and has a false sense of her abilities in relations to others similar to these two. Her ambition is akin to Ted Cruz, who basically immediately presumed he was a Senate leader the second he took his oath in the Senate. I remember seeing Cruz bolt forward ahead of the other Senate freshmen, even though he wasn't position to be first, to sign the oath book (or whatever that book is they sign). AOC has that same impatience to lead, make changes, flex power, or whatever they're hoping to do. The difference between Gabbard, Trump, and AOC is, to Cruz and Gabbard's credit, I don't see them as immature. Trump and AOC still have a prominent "teenage girl" strain about them that seems a little out of place with being a politician or any authority figure. I do think AOC could mature, rise to the leadership and change-bringer that she hopes to become, but that often requires facing some sort of humbling set back. AOC, Trump, Gabbard, and Cruz all have this sense of inevitable immortality about them too. I think AOC sees herself as the heir of Bernie Sanders and possibly the first woman president in 2024 or 2028. I think Trump has no concept that he will physically die and that a world can exist after him or that the world existed before him--he thinks he is the world. Gabbard, I feel, will start a new political party that tries to unite Green and Libertarians and anti-war independents. I think Cruz thinks he'll be president and will be the conservative figurehead of the 21st century, a 21st century Reagan. The thing they all also have in common is that they aren't likable outside of their base. The thing with FDR, Reagan, Lincoln, was that they had great likability and respect outside of their base, although they were still objects of hate by some. 

I find myself both liking and disliking AOC. I like what she says (not the stuff she says just to get attention or start fights), I just wish it was a different woman saying it. 

Generally agree, though I think Gabbard is done with politics.  I predicted a couple months ago that she would end up as a Fox News personality, and I still sincerely believe that.  

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16 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Generally agree, though I think Gabbard is done with politics.  I predicted a couple months ago that she would end up as a Fox News personality, and I still sincerely believe that.  

That could be the case. 

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On 2/13/2020 at 12:31 AM, TheMiddlePolitical said:

If Bernie or Warren wins, and then loses the GE,Progressiveism dies down slightly

Wild speculation but I assume otherwise, the thing is, progressiveism taking hold on the Democratic Party like that so much it wins a primary really should make the Democratic party take a look at itself, and hopefully we'll finally have the party embrace more leftward ideas. It happened after 2016, literally every candidate except for Biden is embracing some bastardization of M4A and wants to legalize weed. 

I'm left wing so I picked AOC, (of course) but on the Republican side, for me a big thing is the legalization of weed (I'm kind of a one issue person at this point lol) and DeSantis is the only one there who is moderate on that.

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