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SirLagsalott

Switched from regions to polling - drastically different results

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I posted an early version of my 2020 scenario in 2018, and I've been working on it on and off since then. Yesterday I decided to start migrating all the percentages, which I had done in the regions menu, into polling to allow for date-specific changes. This appears to be working fine for the primaries (although the decimal points, which were recently added, don't do anything), but the general election gives drastically different results even though I am using the same numbers for percentages in the regions menu and percentages in the polling menu.

Region %s instead of polling:

image.thumb.png.d895dfa35ff571be048e8d8b898d4e4f.png

With polling:

image.thumb.png.e63daf676874387bdd8c69cf5665bd95.png

At first I thought this was because I also put in a national poll, but when I removed that it didn't change anything. I'm not using shifts. All poll dates are on January 1 2017 because I want them to be the same in the primaries for now. In both pictures, fog of war is off. And to prove I'm not doing anything unusual, here's Louisiana, which is solid red without polling and Democratic with polling:

LA (region percentages):

image.png.787143758fc5e609430bcd27cf4d7b80.png

LA (polling percentages):

image.thumb.png.e81053f816aa5f6d5e776d27929575de.png

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On 2/3/2020 at 1:14 PM, admin_270 said:

Tough to say what's going on here. I'd have to look at the campaign. You can export it and then e-mail it using https://270soft.com/contact .

I've had trouble setting up my email on my laptop, and I can't message you privately, so here's a Dropbox link to the scenario.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/drlr6x01hy5qph7/United States - 2020 SirLagsalott.zip?dl=0

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On 2/1/2020 at 10:12 PM, SirLagsalott said:

I posted an early version of my 2020 scenario in 2018, and I've been working on it on and off since then. Yesterday I decided to start migrating all the percentages, which I had done in the regions menu, into polling to allow for date-specific changes. This appears to be working fine for the primaries (although the decimal points, which were recently added, don't do anything), but the general election gives drastically different results even though I am using the same numbers for percentages in the regions menu and percentages in the polling menu.

Region %s instead of polling:

image.thumb.png.d895dfa35ff571be048e8d8b898d4e4f.png

With polling:

image.thumb.png.e63daf676874387bdd8c69cf5665bd95.png

At first I thought this was because I also put in a national poll, but when I removed that it didn't change anything. I'm not using shifts. All poll dates are on January 1 2017 because I want them to be the same in the primaries for now. In both pictures, fog of war is off. And to prove I'm not doing anything unusual, here's Louisiana, which is solid red without polling and Democratic with polling:

LA (region percentages):

image.png.787143758fc5e609430bcd27cf4d7b80.png

LA (polling percentages):

image.thumb.png.e81053f816aa5f6d5e776d27929575de.png

Polls have always confused me a bit, and maybe @admin_270 or some other expert can weigh in on this. I've made a few general observations:

1. I use polls in Primaries (since there are no regions in primaries and there's really no other way to separate primary candidates from one another), but definitely not in general.

2. Polls seem to be too powerful to me, or the game takes them too literally. For example, if I put a general poll that says 51% Party A and 49% Party B, then each state is set to 51/49. So you really have to have NO national polls (primary polls don't seem to have this issue as much) and have all state polls, for which many states there's not reliable enough data.

3. Still a lot of unanswered questions: I don't know that what we see on the right side of the screen each week are projections or actual poll results? Are these weighted results from any polls that are "active"? If so, how does it weigh polls which are say 1 week old vs. 1 month old, does it weigh national and state polls together? What about parties vs. candidates? If polling is turned off, then where do those numbers come from? Again is there some sort of weighting between regions and poll results? This really has never been clear to me. And while we're at it, I experimented once with a general election with only poll - a national poll that has its date as one month after I start the campaign - and yet it STILL had equal influence on all 50 states, one month in the future no less.

4. Even for regions, what are these supposed to represent? The percent REGISTERED in each party? What if the numbers don't add to 100? What effect are they supposed to have on the polls and election results?

 

But long story short, I use state polls only, and only in primaries, but not in generals, I find it skews the results too much. But I need to have a better understanding of how polls weigh each other and weigh vs. regions, before I do otherwise. Comparing your graphs, you are getting some STRANGE results, for example SD and AL being a toss-up?  AZ deep blue? It seems to me that you're experiencing what I did? Is this from a national poll, because then it would make sense. Because if you put in a national poll 51D/49R two months into the "future" from when you start the campaign, the entire map will be colored blue, with each state about that ratio. Same if you did 51R/49D. It seems this is unrealistic and state polls don't seem to balance this out much. That's why I ONLY use state polls, but those can be, as I said, a pain to put together and there's not always reliable information out there.

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On 2/3/2020 at 10:14 AM, admin_270 said:

Tough to say what's going on here. I'd have to look at the campaign. You can export it and then e-mail it using https://270soft.com/contact .

I've notice that same thing for quite some time. I think it mostly stems from either the polls being too "powerful" or from us not having a good enough understanding of how polls work.

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10 hours ago, servo75 said:

Polls seem to be too powerful to me, or the game takes them too literally. For example, if I put a general poll that says 51% Party A and 49% Party B, then each state is set to 51/49. So you really have to have NO national polls (primary polls don't seem to have this issue as much) and have all state polls, for which many states there's not reliable enough data.

This should only happen if there are no regional polls with relevant dates.

Your questions are fairly complex - probably, I will add a help section for polls so they can be used properly.

Basically, rolling polls are designed for 2 situations. Primaries polls for starting in primaries at different dates, and general election polls for starting in the general at different dates.

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

This should only happen if there are no regional polls with relevant dates.

Your questions are fairly complex - probably, I will add a help section for polls so they can be used properly.

Basically, rolling polls are designed for 2 situations. Primaries polls for starting in primaries at different dates, and general election polls for starting in the general at different dates.

A help section for polls would definitely be much appreciated, thanks! I think I'm just unclear not only on how the polls work, but also how they work in conjunction with percentages.

I get what you're saying in your last sentence, but through experimentation (though I admit I haven't tried this in several versions), it doesn't APPEAR to hold true, as I would have a poll dated 10/1, start a campaign on 9/1, and the 10/1 poll still seemed to be in effect. But maybe a help section addressing how polls work might clear that up. For example, if the campaign starts on 9/1, then an 8/15 poll and 8/1 poll might both affect the percentages, but the 8/15 would have more "weight"... or would the game just throw out the 8/1 poll entirely? Or if you had two polls on the same day, one said "Trump 52 Sanders 48" and the other one said "Democrat 52 Republican 48" how would they duke each other out? Anyway, I look forward to reading about that, and thanks!

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22 hours ago, servo75 said:

Polls have always confused me a bit, and maybe @admin_270 or some other expert can weigh in on this. I've made a few general observations:

...

But long story short, I use state polls only, and only in primaries, but not in generals, I find it skews the results too much. But I need to have a better understanding of how polls weigh each other and weigh vs. regions, before I do otherwise. Comparing your graphs, you are getting some STRANGE results, for example SD and AL being a toss-up?  AZ deep blue? It seems to me that you're experiencing what I did? Is this from a national poll, because then it would make sense. Because if you put in a national poll 51D/49R two months into the "future" from when you start the campaign, the entire map will be colored blue, with each state about that ratio. Same if you did 51R/49D. It seems this is unrealistic and state polls don't seem to balance this out much. That's why I ONLY use state polls, but those can be, as I said, a pain to put together and there's not always reliable information out there.

The issue was identical whether I had a national poll in the system or not.

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