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vcczar

Which Democrat can hold a coalition?

Who is the best nominee for Democrats?  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. Which potential nominees are most likely to excite the Democratic liberal-to-progressive base and energize them to vote?

    • Biden
    • Sanders
    • Warren
    • Buttigieg
    • None of these candidates will energize this voting bloc
      0
  2. 2. Which potential nominees are most likely to excite African-American voters and energize them to vote?

    • Biden
    • Sanders
    • Warren
    • Buttigieg
    • None of these candidates will energize this voting bloc
  3. 3. Which potential nominees are most likely to excite and win over populist-leaning independents in the battleground states that had voted for Obama and Trump in the past?

    • Biden
    • Sanders
    • Warren
    • Buttigieg
    • None of these will win this voting bloc.
  4. 4. Which potential nominees are most likely to win over centrist Democrats, Never Trump Republicans, and moderate Libertarians that don't want Trump to win?

  5. 5. Which potential nominees are most likely to energize and win over independent progressives, left wing populists, Socialists and Green Party supporters that don't want Trump to win?



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I have 5 voting blocs here. Who can cobble together a coalition? 

  1. Liberal-to-Progressive base. 
    1. If this base is energized much higher than Trump's base is energized, then the Popular Vote gap will definitely be even larger in 2020. However, the one that energizes this base will likely just see numbers increase in states Democrats will already win. Strong turnout here will hold the states Clinton won in 2016, and will likely lead to winning back PA and FL, both states that aren't as populist as WI, MI or as African-American heavy as NC. Huge turn out here could potentially flip TX if Trump greatly underpeforms. This is the largest and most important voting bloc. They'll likely vote Democrat or stay home. 
  2. African-American voters.
    1. This voting bloc is essential to winning NC and can help tip the scales in favor of FL, GA, MI, OH if this is combined with huge turn out of the base, especially if Trump underperforms. Voting turn out for this bloc is low if they aren't excited. 
  3. Centrists, Republicans, Moderate Libertarians, and Conservatives that hate Trump more than they do the Democrats. 
    1. This voting bloc can help tip the scales in AZ, TX, FL, NC, OH, MI, WI, PA, IA, but as this voting bloc is relatively small, it must be combined with turnout among the base, and ideally African-American's too. If they aren't won over, they'll likely vote Libertarian or Independent. 
  4. Independent working-class populists that voted for Obama and Trump. 
    1. These voters are essential to winning back PA, OH, MI, IA, and WI. Winning this must be combined with winning the base, and likely by winning also the centrists or left-wing populists. If they aren't won over, then they'll likely vote for Trump again. 
  5. Left-wing populists
    1. These voters aren't as numerous as the base, but they are possibly the second largest group of those that Democrats can win over. If they are excited, they'll vote Democrat in large numbers; if they aren't, they'll stay home or vote against the Democratic party by opting 3rd party or strangely even for Trump. 

Who can build a coalition? The key states not won by Clinton in 2016 probably need these numbers to be won:

OH: Base + AA + Working Class, or Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

MI: Base + AA + Working Class, or Base + LW Populists, or Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

WI: Base + LW Populists, or Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

PA: Base + AA + Working Class, or Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

FL: Base + AA + Working Class, or Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

NC: Base + AA + Working Class, or Base + Working Class + Centrists

AZ: Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

GA: Base + AA + Working Class, Base + Working Class + Centrists

TX: Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

IA: Base + Working Class + Centrists, or Base + LW Populists + Working Class

You could use your poll results and create a map and see if anyone gets to 270 EVs. We will assume that Clinton failed to excite all 5 voting blocs and still managed to win the states that she did. With this assumption, we can assume Democrats will likely hold the states Clinton won as every Democratic nominee is an improvement on Clinton. 

 

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