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UK Predictions

2019 UK election poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. Which outcome do you think is most likely?

    • Conservative majority
    • Conservative minority
    • Labour majority
    • Labour minority
    • Lib Dem majority
      0
    • Lib Dem minority
      0
    • Brexit Party majority
      0
    • Brexit Party minority
      0
    • Conservative-Brexit Party majority
    • Conservative-Brexit Party minority
      0
    • Labour-SNP majority
    • Labour-SNP minority
    • Other (please specify...)
      0
  2. 2. Who do you support for Prime Minister?

    • Boris Johnson
    • Jeremy Corbyn
    • Jo Swinson
    • Nigel Farage
    • Other (please specify...)


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Please post your UK election predictions (using Electoral Calculus below), then vote in the poll. I'll start.

t1xPnMO.png

Wild, I know. The Tories blew a 20 point lead under May though, so anything is possible.

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 Here's mine. I think Nigel could cause a Brexit surge at the expense of the others. Lib Dems are the only expection. But the Conservatives will have a majority at the end.

20191109_001759.jpg

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untitled.PNG.95e826010ca3bb41bfd4a51b897b0484.PNG

Based on the EU Parliament results, I deem it most likely that the right-wing vote will split between Tory and Brexit. They'd HAVE to share a coalition.

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14 minutes ago, Wiw said:

untitled.PNG.95e826010ca3bb41bfd4a51b897b0484.PNG

Based on the EU Parliament results, I deem it most likely that the right-wing vote will split between Tory and Brexit. They'd HAVE to share a coalition.

The EU Parliament has a different electoral system than the House of Commons. You can't expect the same results in terms of translating into seats.

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

The EU Parliament has a different electoral system than the House of Commons. You can't expect the same results in terms of translating into seats.

Anyways I have legitimate doubt about 8,8% producing 289 seats xD

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17 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Give it time!

Can you just get a sense of perspective and proportion, please?! Your "Chicken Little" complex does grow wearisome.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

Can you just get a sense of perspective and proportion, please?! Your "Chicken Little" complex does grow wearisome.

 

1 hour ago, Wiw said:

Give it time!

Plus the Brexit Party just stood down in like, what, 300 seats? Not signs of a great boom.

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5 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

 

Plus the Brexit Party just stood down in like, what, 300 seats? Not signs of a great boom.

I was unaware of that particular fact. If I had known that, my response would have been different.

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9 hours ago, Patine said:

Can you just get a sense of perspective and proportion, please?! Your "Chicken Little" complex does grow wearisome.

Alright then, how about a prediction based on the last election? Assuming they get to about the same polling positions as they did, the Tories still win. There!

untitled.PNG.615e467a6d8b73781d6eec9e5c390de4.PNG

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14 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Alright then, how about a prediction based on the last election? Assuming they get to about the same polling positions as they did, the Tories still win. There!

untitled.PNG.615e467a6d8b73781d6eec9e5c390de4.PNG

Well, the Tories winning isn't the end of the world. Hell, neither is Trump winning re-election. They aren't the absolute apocalypse, doomsday scenarios you make them out to be. However, winning a majority government on 8.8% of the popular vote, even by FPTP, is very Orwellian and over-the-top of a claim indeed.

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

Well, the Tories winning isn't the end of the world. Hell, neither is Trump winning re-election. They aren't the absolute apocalypse, doomsday scenarios you make them out to be.

Well... good!

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I see Jeremy Corbyn as Michael Foot 2.0, and will suffer the same fate, as much as I can't stand Boris Johnson.  Corbyn got lucky in 2017 due to May's inept campaigning, but I'm not sure he can count on that again this time.

Corbyn's personal popularity ratings are not just underwater, they're in the polling equivalent of the Marianas Trench.  And if the voters don't like somebody, they aren't going to vote for that person's party.  Just ask Bill Shorten, who was similarly unpopular, and blew the Australian election that took place earlier this year.

I think Labour is going to need a completely new leader to stay competitive.  I'm just not sure who the right candidate would be.  I have some ideas, but I'm sure someone with their ear closer to the ground will have better ideas.

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19 hours ago, darkmoon72 said:

I think Labour is going to need a completely new leader to stay competitive.  I'm just not sure who the right candidate would be.  I have some ideas, but I'm sure someone with their ear closer to the ground will have better ideas.

I'm not sure either, but the one thing I can guarantee is it'll be a woman, since John McDonnell and others have argued that it's time for one. Although Keir Starmer is still the bookies favourite, the Corbynites are bigging up Rebecca Long-Bailey as their candidate. Unfortunately for her, she doesn't come across well, especially on the TV, and has cultivated a reputation as being generally useless (Some Blairite Labour MPs came up with the nickname "Wrong Daily" and boy has it stuck)

The other real prospects are Laura Pidcock and Angela Rayner. Pidcock is another Corbyn acolyte, and is that much of a socialist she refuses to socialise with Tory MPs and has gone on record calling them the "enemy" (she also was one of the many MPs who recently condemned the use of inflammatory language) I don't rate her chances, as I reckon she'd be as much of a disaster as Corbyn has, ironically for someone with a degree in Disaster Managment.

Rayner is the Shadow Education Secretary who left school with no qualifications, but she has a geniune connection with people that the rest of them lack. Also, she's on the softer left of the party, which makes her more palatable to a lot of people than the hard left cranks currently in charge, including myself.

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36 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

I'm not sure either, but the one thing I can guarantee is it'll be a woman, since John McDonnell and others have argued that it's time for one. Although Keir Starmer is still the bookies favourite, the Corbynites are bigging up Rebecca Long-Bailey as their candidate. Unfortunately for her, she doesn't come across well, especially on the TV, and has cultivated a reputation as being generally useless (Some Blairite Labour MPs came up with the nickname "Wrong Daily" and boy has it stuck)

The other real prospects are Laura Pidcock and Angela Rayner. Pidcock is another Corbyn acolyte, and is that much of a socialist she refuses to socialise with Tory MPs and has gone on record calling them the "enemy" (she also was one of the many MPs who recently condemned the use of inflammatory language) I don't rate her chances, as I reckon she'd be as much of a disaster as Corbyn has, ironically for someone with a degree in Disaster Managment.

Rayner is the Shadow Education Secretary who left school with no qualifications, but she has a geniune connection with people that the rest of them lack. Also, she's on the softer left of the party, which makes her more palatable to a lot of people than the hard left cranks currently in charge, including myself.

Yes, I noticed Rayner upstaged Corbyn at their recent appearance together.  She had far more enthusiasm and energy than he did.  If I didn't know better, I'd have guessed she was already leading the Labour Party, just based on that.  She seems to be one to watch.

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On 11/20/2019 at 1:51 AM, darkmoon72 said:

I see Jeremy Corbyn as Michael Foot 2.0, and will suffer the same fate, as much as I can't stand Boris Johnson.  Corbyn got lucky in 2017 due to May's inept campaigning, but I'm not sure he can count on that again this time.

Not necessarily. According to one internet poll that went viral, at least 78% of 30,000 balloted said that Corbyn did better in the debate than Johnson.

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21 hours ago, Wiw said:

Not necessarily. According to one internet poll that went viral, at least 78% of 30,000 balloted said that Corbyn did better in the debate than Johnson.

That number may be entirely accurate, but I'm not certain that debates matter all that much any more.  Many, if not most, viewers have already made up their minds, and TV isn't exactly a new invention.  I think the days of the voting public being blown away by someone's debate performance are pretty much gone.  When it comes to UK elections, I haven't seen much evidence that they moved the needle much in the first place, especially since the leaders' debates only started in 2010.

Even post-debate, the numbers haven't moved a whole lot.  Labour is still hovering around 30%, the Tories between 40 and 45%.  Whatever gains Labour is making at the Lib Dems' expense seem to be offset by similar gains the Conservatives are making at the Brexit Party's expense.  A Conservative majority still looks to be the most likely outcome.

image.thumb.png.33040f3399b331025b858d344622e911.png

 

Labour seems to realize how bad the situation looks, and are reportedly adopting a new strategy of damage control:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/labour-to-focus-on-brexit-backing-voters-in-final-fortnight

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22 hours ago, Wiw said:

Not necessarily. According to one internet poll that went viral, at least 78% of 30,000 balloted said that Corbyn did better in the debate than Johnson.

That poll was on Twitter, so we can totally discount it. No way it's accurate. YouGov placed it at about 50/50

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43 minutes ago, LegolasRedbard said:

That poll was on Twitter, so we can totally discount it. No way it's accurate. YouGov placed it at about 50/50

Ah, a Twitter poll. "A Green Majority in every First World Nation before 2030, I can feel it! You heard it here first! The trends are undeniable!"

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3 hours ago, LegolasRedbard said:

That poll was on Twitter, so we can totally discount it. No way it's accurate. YouGov placed it at about 50/50

Oh no...

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