Sessions reportedly considering bid for Senate

[admin_270 82]

This is interesting.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/28/sessions-considering-running-senate-alabama-060720

One detail I found interesting is that Sessions, if he does run, will start with $2.5M before he's done any fundraising.

Alabama's incumbent Senator is Doug Jones (D). If Sessions runs, my guess is any chance of Roy Moore winning the Republican primary is gone and this seat will be strongly tilting Republican.

[admin_270 82]

If Sessions runs, he must qualify for the ballot by November 8th, so we will know very soon if this reporting is accurate.

[TheLiberalKitten 0]

Jeff is making a comeback huh? It'll certainly be an interesting race to watch as Doug Jones is the most vulnerable Democrat.

[admin_270 82]

The article claims the biggest hurdle Sessions will have to winning is the President. I doubt this. Trump wants to win the seat, and if he believed Sessions would be the best bet to do so, my guess is he would support his candidacy.

[vcczar 0]

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

The article claims the biggest hurdle Sessions will have to winning is the President. I doubt this. Trump wants to win the seat, and if he believed Sessions would be the best bet to do so, my guess is he would support his candidacy.

Yeah, I think Trump ultimately supports him if the race seems close. I think Sessions will likely have a harder time winning than a Generic Republican, but better than Roy Moore's chances. Alabama is the strongest pro-Trump state in the US, excluding possibly West Virginia. I think some of the rift between Trump and Sessions hurts Sessions somewhat, even though it is his home state. I think some in AL will want change. Doug Jones isn't running like he's trying hard to win reelection. He isn't operating as conservatively as he should--like Manchin does, for instance, to get reelected. I'd give Republicans an 80% chance of winning the election with Sessions, which gives Jones a 20% chance of winning. That is, I expect Jones to be trailing in the polls, but at the extreme of the margin of error for victory. Thus, if the margin of error is 4.9% I see Sessions at 4.8%+ vs. Jones, provided Jones runs a campaign with integrity and focuses on how he's helped all Alabamians, both liberal and conservative. Jones can also get a huge boost if he can get historic turnout from African-Americans in the state. It's 27% AA. If he focuses on share problems between AAs and poor whites, then that might actually be enough of a coalition. He shouldn't focus on Trump at all except to say that he will look forward to working with the president if reelected. 

[admin_270 82]

3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think some of the rift between Trump and Sessions hurts Sessions somewhat, even though it is his home state.

Yes, but I think 1 tweet from Trump saying 'Alabamans, Sessions will make a great Senator!' and that effect will largely be gone. Of course, he might not do that, but my guess is he would.

[vcczar 0]

Just now, admin_270 said:

Yes, but I think 1 tweet from Trump saying 'Alabamans, Sessions will make a great Senator!' and that effect will largely be gone. Of course, he might not do that, but my guess is he would.

I do think Trump will do that, but I also don't think the Tweet will have that much power. We also don't know how much popularity Trump will have by election day either. Sessions might not even want the endorsement! Although, I think AL will be pro-Trump even if he ate Mike Pence on live TV and told Alabama to go to hell. 

[Jayavarman 68]

Sessions will be 73-years-old next month after having served 20+ years in the US Senate and then as US Attorney General in the President's Cabinet.  Why can't these guys just retire?