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vcczar

2020 Predictions at this point.

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If I were guessing on the path to victory for the four that seem to have any real chance, then it would probably go like the following:

Biden: Crushes everyone in IA, diluting any momentum for challengers in NH. At least, a narrow victory or narrow defeat in NH. He's guaranteed to win in SC. Success in the first three primaries leads to success in NV. He has major momentum going into Super Tuesday. Nomination is basically his after Super Tuesday. 

Warren: Takes IA, huge win in NH. Biden places 3rd or 4th in both of these and drops or greatly loses support. Leads to Warren coming in at least 2nd in SC. Surprise showing in SC, leads to victory in NV. She has momentum going into Super Tuesday. At this point, Biden will certainly have dropped out. Sanders may have decided to endorse Warren to ensure she defeats any threatening moderate candidates. 

Sanders: Takes IA by a large margin, upsets Warren in NH, comes in at least 2nd in SC., wins NV. Goes into Super Tuesday with momentum. Somehow managers to convince Warren to drop out and endorse him before Super Tuesday. Gabbard endorses. Biden has either dropped out or has seriously lost support. Moderates can't gather around a single candidate by Super Tuesday, splitting any anti-Sanders delegates. Democrats decide to stick with Sanders rather than cause a huge split among potential Democratic voters by trying to force a defeat. Convention focuses on progressive-liberal harmony and working together for the greater good. Convention is ideologically diverse. Sanders speaks on the stage at one point with Clinton, Biden, Manchin, Obama, and AOC. 

Buttigieg: Upset win in IA leads to upset win in NH. Momentum for a "new" candidate carries him to a small victory in SC (as Biden has declined or dropped out by now), and a win in NV. Most of the candidates endorse Buttigieg by Super Tuesday. Sanders and Warren split the Progressive vote, leading to Buttigieg almost running the table on Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday, Buttigieg starts moving to the left to rhetorically so he can drain any support from Warren and Sanders that he can, and try to heal some of the divide between the wings of the party. 

I'd give every other candidate basically a 0.5% chance of getting the nomination or less, combining for 3% . I'd give Yang a 2% maybe on his own. Sanders I'd give a 10%. Buttigieg a 15%.. I'd give Biden a 30% chance of nomination. I'd give Warren a 40% chance of nomination. 

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I have a hard time believing Biden would drop out before SC unless his poll numbers there tanked. It's possible they would if he had poor showings in IA and NH, but barring that, why would he drop out if he was ahead there? I can see this being a 3 (or even 4) way race for months, resulting in a contested convention.

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14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I have a hard time believing Biden would drop out before SC unless his poll numbers there tanked. It's possible they would if he had poor showings in IA and NH, but barring that, why would he drop out if he was ahead there? I can see this being a 3 (or even 4) way race for months, resulting in a contested convention.

I agree with this.  Biden is in until at least Super Tuesday, as long as he retains his lead in SC, which I anticipate him doing.

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I have a hard time believing Biden would drop out before SC unless his poll numbers there tanked. It's possible they would if he had poor showings in IA and NH, but barring that, why would he drop out if he was ahead there? I can see this being a 3 (or even 4) way race for months, resulting in a contested convention.

Yeah, you're probably right regarding Biden. He's probably more likely than not to stay until SC, even if he gets destroyed in IA and NH. However, I also don't see him just staying in to stay in if he gets crushed, unless it's Sanders as the frontrunner by then. In regards to a contested convention, I doubt that will be the case unless both Sanders and Warren stay in the race after Super Tuesday. I think, similar to Trump in 2016, Progressives have the luxury of having fewer candidates than Establishment Liberals. I think there will likely be two major figures in the race, and then some hold outs that stay in for no real reason, since they can't win.

My gut instinct is that the chance for a contested convention is like 5 or 10%, mostly because there are so many candidates which will make it easy for someone like Warren to end up raking in the delegates, or Biden, if more establishment liberals drop out---especially Harris and Buttigieg. I think a contested convention is more likely to occur when you have two equally strong candidates and one third candidate that is just strong enough, and stubborn enough, to wins some delegates and hold on to them. 1976 is the last contested convention -- Reagan vs. Ford. The next closest example is Obama vs. Clinton (she won the primary pop vote, but he had the delegates) in 2008. However, she dropped out before the Convention. 

I only see 2020 being contested under three candidate scenarios: 

1. Warren, Biden, Sanders. However, if Sander is in 3rd place, I seriously doubt he stays in if it risks Biden beating Warren. If Warren is in 3rd place, it's because she doesn't really want Sanders, but wants Biden to make a decisive and public statement to move much further on the left in several areas, lest she endorse Sanders. 

2. Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg. In this scenario, Warren is out. If she were in place of Sanders here, I think the nomination would already be hers. In this scenario. Sanders is leading, Buttigieg has cut into Biden and has some of Warren's old supporters. Age becomes a real focus, Buttigieg has momentum going into convention despite being in 3rd place. This leads to a real battle, probably resulting in Bernie supporters storming out or something despite Sanders trying to keep everyone together. 

3. Biden, Sanders, Yang. Similar to the above, but the convention will probably quickly get behind Biden. 

Of all the candidates, I really only see Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg winning any states. I think if Yang does well its because he's getting 2nd place a lot. I think the same for Buttigieg actually. I think it's more likely or not that the nominee will be fairly obvious by the end of Super Tuesday unless Biden comes off on top and someone young like Buttigieg or Yang has overperformed. I think since Warren and Sanders are expected to do well, that if they aren't beating Biden or upsetting Biden, that it ends up being deflating to their campaigns. Biden kind of has the luxury of meeting expectations and not having to exceed them.. Warren and Sanders pretty much have to keep the heat on from now through Super Tuesday. Buttigieg, Yang, and any others will have the luxury of just needing to get 2nd or a strong 3rd place in IA and NH to be potential viable for Super Tuesday. However, an upset would be best. A win in IA doesn't necessarily guarantee much -- Huckabee in 08, Santorum in 12, Cruz in 16. for Reps. Obama in 08 and Clinton in 16 did win, but their elections were so close that I don't think the momentum was truly that helpful, but maybe more so for Obama, even though he lost the pop vote in the primaries. A close 2nd for Sanders in IA seems to have been the most consequential result of the IA primaries for either party since 2008. It made him viable for the election, which in turn made Bernie and his ideology competitive in US politics. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

If I were guessing on the path to victory for the four that seem to have any real chance, then it would probably go like the following:

Biden: Crushes everyone in IA, diluting any momentum for challengers in NH. At least, a narrow victory or narrow defeat in NH. He's guaranteed to win in SC. Success in the first three primaries leads to success in NV. He has major momentum going into Super Tuesday. Nomination is basically his after Super Tuesday. 

Warren: Takes IA, huge win in NH. Biden places 3rd or 4th in both of these and drops or greatly loses support. Leads to Warren coming in at least 2nd in SC. Surprise showing in SC, leads to victory in NV. She has momentum going into Super Tuesday. At this point, Biden will certainly have dropped out. Sanders may have decided to endorse Warren to ensure she defeats any threatening moderate candidates. 

Sanders: Takes IA by a large margin, upsets Warren in NH, comes in at least 2nd in SC., wins NV. Goes into Super Tuesday with momentum. Somehow managers to convince Warren to drop out and endorse him before Super Tuesday. Gabbard endorses. Biden has either dropped out or has seriously lost support. Moderates can't gather around a single candidate by Super Tuesday, splitting any anti-Sanders delegates. Democrats decide to stick with Sanders rather than cause a huge split among potential Democratic voters by trying to force a defeat. Convention focuses on progressive-liberal harmony and working together for the greater good. Convention is ideologically diverse. Sanders speaks on the stage at one point with Clinton, Biden, Manchin, Obama, and AOC. 

Buttigieg: Upset win in IA leads to upset win in NH. Momentum for a "new" candidate carries him to a small victory in SC (as Biden has declined or dropped out by now), and a win in NV. Most of the candidates endorse Buttigieg by Super Tuesday. Sanders and Warren split the Progressive vote, leading to Buttigieg almost running the table on Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday, Buttigieg starts moving to the left to rhetorically so he can drain any support from Warren and Sanders that he can, and try to heal some of the divide between the wings of the party. 

I'd give every other candidate basically a 0.5% chance of getting the nomination or less, combining for 3% . I'd give Yang a 2% maybe on his own. Sanders I'd give a 10%. Buttigieg a 15%.. I'd give Biden a 30% chance of nomination. I'd give Warren a 40% chance of nomination. 

Buttigieg path seems the most realistic-sounding.

However, I can see Biden making a last gasp victory in South Carolina after IA/NH defeats if black voters stick with him.  My assumption is that black voters defect if there is a viable candidate of color; a Buttigieg candidate with momentum still does not fit that profile (and the gay factor).

Additionally, New Hampshire has been playing the counterweight to Iowa the past three cycles.
2008:  Obama won IA.  Clinton won NH.  |  Huckabee won IA.  McCain won NH.
2012:  Santorum won IA.  Romney won NH.
2016:  Clinton won IA.  Sanders won NH. |  Cruz won IA.  Trump won NH.
Thus, Buttigieg may get a surprise victory in IA that generates huge headlines and national momentum, but then NH sticks with a progressive choice such as Sanders or Warren.

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@vcczar Black voters really didn't rally around Obama until after he proved his electability in Iowa in 08, that's when they largely began to defect from Clinton. I'd argue that the 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus is one of the most important iterations of said caucus and likely triggered the scenario which made it possible for Obama to become President.

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar Black voters really didn't rally around Obama until after he proved his electability in Iowa in 08, that's when they largely began to defect from Clinton. I'd argue that the 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus is one of the most important iterations of said caucus and likely triggered the scenario which made it possible for Obama to become President.

I think Obama moreso won on the unpopularity of the Bush Administration, the utter uncharismatic nature of McCain (and that he was a strict adherent of carrying on the Bush agenda completely intact), that McCain's running mate upstaged him in the worst possible ways, and, even though he got blamed for it later (inexplicably), the financial crisis at the tail end of the Bush had helped him at the time, as well as a few other factors. I think the African-American voters you like to harp on here were, as they say, "just sauce on the entrée," which had already been served.

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

I think Obama moreso won on the unpopularity of the Bush Administration, the utter uncharismatic nature of McCain (and that he was a strict adherent of carrying on the Bush agenda completely intact), that McCain's running mate upstaged him in the worst possible ways, and, even though he got blamed for it later (inexplicably), the financial crisis at the tail end of the Bush had helped him at the time, as well as a few other factors. I think the African-American voters you like to harp on here were, as they say, "just sauce on the entrée," which had already been served.

Who am I harping on. And sure, but replace Obama with Hillary it's the same story, that's just how any Democratic nominee would win.

I'm talking about victory in the Democratic Primaries which was very much dependent on the fact that Obama was able to upstage Clinton in the South unexpectedly during Super Tuesday.

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5 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Who am I harping on. And sure, but replace Obama with Hillary it's the same story, that's just how any Democratic nominee would win.

I'm talking about victory in the Democratic Primaries which was very much dependent on the fact that Obama was able to upstage Clinton in the South unexpectedly during Super Tuesday.

Oh, I see you did say Clinton. It's thought, for some reason, you said "defected from McCain." I'm still waking up. Give a civil servant his Sunday morning... :P

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On 10/26/2019 at 10:39 AM, vcczar said:

I really only see Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg

Ya, interested in people giving significant chances to Yang. He's polling 2-3% nationally, similar in IA and NH. My guess at this point is his cap is about 10% nationally. His fundraising is strong, though. But for him to win an early state he would need to start making a move now, much like Buttigieg in IA, who has almost moved into 2nd.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, interested in people giving significant chances to Yang. He's polling 2-3% nationally, similar in IA and NH. My guess at this point is his cap is about 10% nationally. His fundraising is strong, though. But for him to win an early state he would need to start making a move now, much like Buttigieg in IA, who has almost moved into 2nd.

Yang needed breakout moments at the previous debates to get big polling bumps followed by fundraising/infrastructure build-outs.  It may be too late at this point.

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, interested in people giving significant chances to Yang. He's polling 2-3% nationally, similar in IA and NH. My guess at this point is his cap is about 10% nationally. His fundraising is strong, though. But for him to win an early state he would need to start making a move now, much like Buttigieg in IA, who has almost moved into 2nd.

 

33 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Yang needed breakout moments at the previous debates to get big polling bumps followed by fundraising/infrastructure build-outs.  It may be too late at this point.

I think he can still have a breakout moment. If he can make December a 6-person debate, he's going to have a lot more time and get a lot more focus. It's also going to make him seem more viable. He'll have to have a breakout moment in that debate for sure. Biden might want him in because he's more likely to drain Warren and Sanders supporters than his own supporters. It might not happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden allies covertly help Yang make the debate somehow. 

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5 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, interested in people giving significant chances to Yang. He's polling 2-3% nationally, similar in IA and NH. My guess at this point is his cap is about 10% nationally. His fundraising is strong, though. But for him to win an early state he would need to start making a move now, much like Buttigieg in IA, who has almost moved into 2nd.

Damn is Buttigieg really top 3 in Iowa?

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On 10/26/2019 at 2:11 PM, Jayavarman said:

 

Thus, Buttigieg may get a surprise victory in IA that generates huge headlines and national momentum, but then NH sticks with a progressive choice such as Sanders or Warren.

I agree with this.

We could even see

Iowa: Buttigieg

NH: Warren

NV: Sanders

SC: Biden 

At which point, I might give the win to Biden.

I think the race really needs to reach “Biden” versus “The Not Biden candidate” for Biden to lose.

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