Happy Election Day Canada!

[Patine 35]

Just now, Hestia11 said:

I don't think the Liberals are likely to win a majority outright. CBC said that minority or majority is possible. Opposition currently leading them by 7 according to my count. Western Canada is unlikely to be kind to the Liberals.

True. The Prairie Provinces will likely turn out a great majority to the Conservatives, and B.C. will likely be NDP on the coast (with maybe a Green or two), and mostly Conservatives in the Interior. Yukon, and POSSIBLY one or both of the other Northern Territories may likely give Liberal MP's to their overrepresented (population-wise) single ridings each.

[Hestia11 0]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

True. The Prairie Provinces will likely turn out a great majority to the Conservatives, and B.C. will likely be NDP on the coast (with maybe a Green or two), and mostly Conservatives in the Interior. Yukon, and POSSIBLY one or both of the other Northern Territories may likely give Liberal MP's to their overrepresented (population-wise) single ridings each.

The success of the Bloc eliminated any chance at a Liberal majority. Not as good as what they'd thought, but good enough to end the chance.

[Patine 35]

@admin_270 @Hestia11 @vcczar @darkmoon72 and anyone else interested:

Final results:

Liberal 156 seats

Conservative 122 seats

Bloc Quebecois 32 seats

New Democratic 24 seats

Green Party 3 seats

People's Party 0 seats (of, shucks!  )

Independent 1 seat (expelled former Liberal Cabinet Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould)

A Liberal Minority, though a coalition with the NDP (or even just a British-style budget-and-supply agreement) is an operable government, seatwise.

[Edouard 0]

11 hours ago, Patine said:

Two-round Parliamentary FPTP is France's system.  There's only one of round of voting here. Which reminds me - the one you're missing is @Edouard

CONSTITUENCY WON BY TRUDEL OF THE BLOC QUEBECOIS

My step parents are happy, not like some close people to me who voted Réjean Hébert while I was half scheering of the final result 😛

Interesting generationnal gap, step brother and sister probably voted NDP but NDP completely failed in the constituency.

Strange thing too, here are candidates for the Constituency of Longeuil-St-Hubert

Bloc 38% Denis Trudel - sovereignist

Liberal 34% Réjean Hébert - Former minister of the Parti Québécois (you can have him at Saint François in Québec 2014 and Quebec 2012)

NDP and Green : Both sovereignists too.

 

+ Just give a look at some Quebec seats which are still available for recount in the next days :

- Gaspé Iles de la Madeleine - Diane Lebouthiller is not yet declared winner as a recount took place between her (Liberals) and the Bloc => Same situation than provincial Quebec 2018 in which the Liberals initially WON, then, a recount declared the victory of the Parti Québécois

-Quebec city in which the Liberal Minister "Jean yves Duclos" has a lead of 0,4% over the Bloc, a recount might take place.

These seats can still flip but it does not change the result of the election.

For those who want to know, Yves François Blanchet (Bloc Leader) is also a former PQ minister you can watch him in my Quebec 2014 and 2012 scenarios, he's the MP for Johnson in Mauricie and Center Quebec.

[Conservative Elector 2 0]

No surprise I sided with Scheer.

[Patine 35]

30 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

No surprise I sided with Scheer.

I don't know why. I'd think Bernier would have been closer to your stated ideological viewpoint, and those of many of your admired political candidates. Not to mention that Scheer is obviously incompetent, and has no true coherent platform other than attacking the Liberals (often on things that don't really matter to anyone) and creating a list of panderings to a crowd so large it's doomed to fail. The People's Party would have indeed been a better fit for you, especially given they looked more promising electorally to some than they panned out as.

[Conservative Elector 2 0]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

I don't know why. I'd think Bernier would have been closer to your stated ideological viewpoint, and those of many of your admired political candidates. Not to mention that Scheer is obviously incompetent, and has no true coherent platform other than attacking the Liberals (often on things that don't really matter to anyone) and creating a list of panderings to a crowd so large it's doomed to fail. The People's Party would have indeed been a better fit for you, especially given they looked more promising electorally to some than they panned out as.

I have to admit I followed the campaign not that closely, but as Vcc stated why he had voted  for Trudeau over Singh, I had voted for the Conservatives over the People's Party most likely. Perhaps in Beauce I had backed Bernier, I don't know. Since I am not aware of most ridings, I can't say anything about the results, but I looked at Yukon's sole result and damn it was so close for the Conservatives to actually take over the seat. The 1.4 % for the PP could have flipped it to the Cons. (Not sure if the count is now finished there.)

[Patine 35]

5 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I have to admit I followed the campaign not that closely, but as Vcc stated why he had voted  for Trudeau over Singh, I had voted for the Conservatives over the People's Party most likely. Perhaps in Beauce I had backed Bernier, I don't know. Since I am not aware of most ridings, I can't say anything about the results, but I looked at Yukon's sole result and damn it was so close for the Conservatives to actually take over the seat. The 1.4 % for the PP could have flipped it to the Cons. (Not sure if the count is now finished there.)

The last Conservative to hold the Yukon seat (well, technically, an "Independent-Conservative," by self-declared label and on the ballot, but I'm not sure how independent she was of the Conservative caucus), was Martha Black, elected way back in 1935.

[Conservative Elector 2 0]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

The last Conservative to hold the Yukon seat (well, technically, an "Independent-Conservative," by self-declared label and on the ballot, but I'm not sure how independent she was of the Conservative caucus), was Martha Black, elected way back in 1935.

What historic event it could have been yesterday.

It's strange though. Rural areas in the US tend to be more right-wing. I don't think the Yukon territory is very urban.

[TheLiberalKitten 0]

Bloc is back! Certainly interesting to see them back. Their leader certainly ran a great camp8.

[vcczar 0]

I didn't realize British Columbia was as conservative as it is @Patine @admin_270. I sort of expected it to be more like Seattle and Portland. I always kind of assumed only Alberta and Saskatchewan were the only Conservative provinces. Another question. Are the three Northern provinces fairly represented? That's a lot of territory for so few legislators. I know land doesn't vote, so I"m assuming it must have much, much fewer people than Wyoming does in the US.  

[admin_270 82]

47 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Are the three Northern provinces fairly represented?

You mean territories? Over-represented. ~30-40K per seat. National average is ~100K. Basically, for it to be proportionate, you could combine all 3 territories in 1 seat.

[admin_270 82]

52 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I sort of expected it to be more like Seattle and Portland.

Vancouver and Vancouver Island are culturally similar to Seattle and Portland. It's only once you get outside of those areas that it is more conservative.

[vcczar 0]

8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

You mean territories? Over-represented. ~30-40K per seat. National average is ~100K. Basically, for it to be proportionate, you could combine all 3 territories in 1 seat.

 

6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Vancouver and Vancouver Island are culturally similar to Seattle and Portland. It's only once you get outside of those areas that it is more conservative.

Oh okay. I'm kind of surprised they don't increase the number of MPs to create districts that are all ~30-40k seats (maybe ~50 as a compromise). I wonder who would benefit from that, however. 

[admin_270 82]

Big takeaways from this election.

1. Every party is a loser, except for the Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals came 2nd in % and were reduced to a minority. The Conservatives gained % and seats, but likely will have little influence in the new government. The NDP lost seats and % and are now the 4th party in Canada in terms of seats, although they probably will have more influence in the new government. Despite all the climate alarmist rhetoric in the media during the campaign, the Greens were unable to make major breakthroughs and ended up with the same seats they had before election night - 3. The People's Party's leader lost his seat, and they got a meager 1.7% of the vote.
2. There is fairly stark regionalization. The differences between Alberta and Quebec are starker now than before the election.
3. It remains to be seen whether the new government will be stable or not. It might last the full 4 years, it might last 4 months.

[vcczar 0]

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Big takeaways from this election.

1. Every party is a loser, except for the Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals came 2nd in % and were reduced to a minority. The Conservatives gained % and seats, but likely will have little influence in the new government. The NDP lost seats and % and are now the 4th party in Canada in terms of seats, although they probably will have more influence in the new government. Despite all the climate alarmist rhetoric in the media during the campaign, the Greens were unable to make major breakthroughs and ended up with the same seats they had before election night - 3. The People's Party's leader lost his seat, and they got a meager 1.7% of the vote.
2. There is fairly stark regionalization. The differences between Alberta and Quebec are starker now than before the election.
3. It remains to be seen whether the new government will be stable or not. It might last the full 4 years, it might last 4 months.

In regards to point 3, what might make it last only 4 months? I'm not sure how your government works. Did Trump's election as US President have any influence on the election in Canada? For instance, fear of electing a Trump ally or something might have helped Trudeau despite the scandals or something?

[Hestia11 0]

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/qvgm43/canada-is-truly-divided-now-after-justin-trudeaus-minority-win-in-the-election

@Patine @vcczar @Edouard Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

[vcczar 0]

10 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/qvgm43/canada-is-truly-divided-now-after-justin-trudeaus-minority-win-in-the-election

@Patine @vcczar @Edouard Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

I'm inclined to think Trudeau will figure something out. Are there term limits for PMs? 

[admin_270 82]

19 minutes ago, vcczar said:

In regards to point 3, what might make it last only 4 months? I'm not sure how your government works. Did Trump's election as US President have any influence on the election in Canada? For instance, fear of electing a Trump ally or something might have helped Trudeau despite the scandals or something?

If the government fails a confidence vote, it falls. If things are looking good for an election for whichever parties, that is a reason to let the government fail. The Liberals themselves might want an election relatively soon if polling is looking good. Or they might not. A typical length for a Canadian government in these conditions is about 2 years, the maximum would be the term limit of 4 years.

Canadians want good relations with the U.S., as it's our largest trading partner. Canadians want someone who will stand up for Canadian interests and values, but they don't want to unnecessarily antagonize the States, IMO. I didn't perceive much about Trump in the election.

 

[admin_270 82]

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Are there term limits for PMs?

No. Longest serving Prime Minister was 21 1/2 years.

[vcczar 0]

2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If the government fails a confidence vote, it falls. If things are looking good for an election for whichever parties, that is a reason to let the government fail. The Liberals themselves might want an election relatively soon if polling is looking good. Or they might not. A typical length for a Canadian government in these conditions is about 2 years, the maximum would be the term limit of 4 years.

Canadians want good relations with the U.S., as it's our largest trading partner. Canadians want someone who will stand up for Canadian interests and values, but they don't want to unnecessarily antagonize the States, IMO. I didn't perceive much about Trump in the election.

 

Oh ok thanks. 

[admin_270 82]

I think a big reason for the Liberals hanging onto a minority is that the Conservative leader Scheer was underwhelming to many Canadians. It seems Scheer's plan was to be as boring as possible.

If I were a Conservative party member, I would be looking carefully at who could replace him before the next election.

[admin_270 82]

My guess is the other major reason for the Liberals hanging onto a minority is that the economy is doing fairly well.

[vcczar 0]

12 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is the other major reason for the Liberals hanging onto a minority is that the economy is doing fairly well.

Is the Canadian economy doing as well as the American economy? How does Trudeau compare as a candidate/nominee to say Biden, Warren, Sanders, etc. or to Obama? 

[victorraiders 0]

5 hours ago, Patine said:

I don't know why. I'd think Bernier would have been closer to your stated ideological viewpoint, and those of many of your admired political candidates. Not to mention that Scheer is obviously incompetent, and has no true coherent platform other than attacking the Liberals (often on things that don't really matter to anyone) and creating a list of panderings to a crowd so large it's doomed to fail. The People's Party would have indeed been a better fit for you, especially given they looked more promising electorally to some than they panned out as.

you think if bernier have win conservative leadership will have more voters /seats? ? he looks ok comparated with boring scheer despite this if i vote in canada will vote for him