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Happy Election Day Canada!

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To all the Canadians, happy election day! If you haven't voted yet, today's your chance!

The polling for this election has been very close. What looks most likely is a minority government, whether Liberal or Conservative.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois have surged late in the race, and might become key parts of any minority government, while Green party prospects have decreased significantly, from a likely 5 seats to 1. The People's Party might just get a seat with Bernier. 

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30 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

To all the Canadians, happy election day! If you haven't voted yet, today's your chance!

The polling for this election has been very close. What looks most likely is a minority government, whether Liberal or Conservative.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois have surged late in the race, and might become key parts of any minority government, while Green party prospects have decreased significantly, from a likely 5 seats to 1. The People's Party might just get a seat with Bernier. 

The People's Party may end up being like the Reconstruction Party of 1935. They were also formed from a sharp division by a Conservative Minister with the then Conservative PM over a significant issue, and  they're leader also got his own seat (in East Kootney, in B.C.), and, like the People's Party, because no other Conservatives would defect with Stevens, all the candidates, except the leader, were inexperienced nobodies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconstruction_Party_of_Canada

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Anyone else gonna play the 2019 scenario to celebrate? :) 

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17 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Anyone else gonna play the 2019 scenario to celebrate? :) 

I may make a fan-made variant with EVERY party that ran represented, and a few other changes (like swapping out those hideous region flags that come with all the official scenarios, and extra endorsers, and such).

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There's also at least three parties that failed to register that I may include as off-by-default, as well.

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My best guess - Justin Trudeau & the Liberals win with a minority government.  It would be just like what happened to his father Pierre in 1972.

I wanted to get a prediction in before the votes started coming in, even if I'm dead wrong.

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

Anyone else gonna play the 2019 scenario to celebrate? :) 

I did play this just a few days ago, as Justin Trudeau.

 

2019-Trudeau-my-best-majority.jpg

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All the best to Canada! @admin_270 and @Patine (and whomever else I'm missing). I supposed I'd reluctantly vote Trudeau if I were allowed to vote in the election, if there was a threat of Scheer winning. If not, I might vote for a preferred minor party in round 1, if there are multiple rounds of voting in Canadian politics. I admit I'm gravely ignorant of your country's electoral system. 

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32 minutes ago, vcczar said:

All the best to Canada! @admin_270 and @Patine (and whomever else I'm missing). I supposed I'd reluctantly vote Trudeau if I were allowed to vote in the election, if there was a threat of Scheer winning. If not, I might vote for a preferred minor party in round 1, if there are multiple rounds of voting in Canadian politics. I admit I'm gravely ignorant of your country's electoral system. 

Two-round Parliamentary FPTP is France's system. :P There's only one of round of voting here. Which reminds me - the one you're missing is @Edouard

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19 minutes ago, Patine said:

Two-round Parliamentary FPTP is France's system. :P There's only one of round of voting here. Which reminds me - the one you're missing is @Edouard

Oh okay. I'd vote Trudeau then just to help stop a Conservative takeover. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Oh okay. I'd vote Trudeau then just to help stop a Conservative takeover. 

I voted for the New Democratic Party, currently under Jagmeet Singh.

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

I voted for the New Democratic Party, currently under Jagmeet Singh.

I'd probably vote that party if Canada had a 2 round system for voting. Seems like the PM is still too powerful in Canada to risk it going to the Conservative Party; therefore, you kind of have to vote the same way you do in America, acting as if there are only two parties. 

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'd probably vote that party if Canada had a 2 round system for voting. Seems like the PM is still too powerful in Canada to risk it going to the Conservative Party; therefore, you kind of have to vote the same way you do in America, acting as if there are only two parties. 

Except for the fact that a Minority Government seems very likely this election, and the New Democrats are the most likely ones who could be talked into a coalition, and it would almost certainly, at the end of the day, all things said, be with the Liberals over the Conservatives (I'd be gobsmacked, in fact, if it were reversed - and Singh's polls would probably plummet like Clegg's in the UK in 2015 if he did such a thing.).

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10 minutes ago, Patine said:

Except for the fact that a Minority Government seems very likely this election, and the New Democrats are the most likely ones who could be talked into a coalition, and it would almost certainly, at the end of the day, all things said, be with the Liberals over the Conservatives (I'd be gobsmacked, in fact, if it were reversed - and Singh's polls would probably plummet like Clegg's in the UK in 2015 if he did such a thing.).

When will the results be in?

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26 minutes ago, vcczar said:

When will the results be in?

The results in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Gaspe region of Quebec have come in, due to time zone, but the very small number of seats there makes a judgement dubious, at best.

Liberals: 26
Conservatives: 5
NDP: 1
Green: 1

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

The results in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Gaspe region of Quebec have come in, due to time zone, but the very small number of seats there makes a judgement dubious, at best.

Liberals: 26
Conservatives: 5
NDP: 1
Green: 1

I'm surprised that US major networks give no attention to Canadian elections.  

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm surprised that US major networks give no attention to Canadian elections.  

U.S. major news networks are sensationalist and looking for ratings. Thus, Zimbabwean, Russian, Myanmaran, Venezuelan, Iranian, and Turkish, and, though for different reasons, but in a related theme, British, French, Israeli, Indian, and Hong Kong elections are much more sought after fodder for such coverage.

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Just now, Patine said:

U.S. major news networks are sensationalist and looking for ratings. Thus, Zimbabwean, Russian, Myanmaran, Venezuelan, Iranian, and Turkish, and, though for different reasons, but in a related theme, British, French, Israeli, Indian, and Hong Kong elections are much more sought after fodder for such coverage.

Based off the election so far, do you think the election looks promising for Trudeau? I'm not sure how the provinces generally vote. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Based off the election so far, do you think the election looks promising for Trudeau? I'm not sure how the provinces generally vote. 

He's predicted to win, at this point, a little over 40% of the vote.

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21 minutes ago, Patine said:

He's predicted to win, at this point, a little over 40% of the vote.

Liberal/NDP coalition? 

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22 minutes ago, Patine said:

He's predicted to win, at this point, a little over 40% of the vote.

That’s good 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Liberal/NDP coalition? 

It looked like a coalition would be needed before today.... ;)

But, the NDP would be almost certain to back Trudeau over Scheer if there were no majority. See my Clegg analog, above, if Singh inexplicably backed Scheer.

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Just now, Patine said:

It looked like a coalition would be needed before today.... ;)

 

I don't think the Liberals are likely to win a majority outright. CBC said that minority or majority is possible. Opposition currently leading them by 7 according to my count. Western Canada is unlikely to be kind to the Liberals.

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