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Entrecampos

Portugal (1975-2019) Mega Scenario

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I'm doing a Portugal mod with a friend of mine that will have multi legislative elections in the same scenario. Of course 2019 is the main focus and the most balanced scenario. I would say 2019 main scenario is at 60% in this moment. 2015 mini-scenario at 10%. The others need more time.  Maybe I will send the files when 2019 scenario is completed even if the other mini-scenarios aren't. The scenario will have 22 main regions (districts+foreign) and more than 308 subregions (municipalities+foreign). The mps will be showed in a total of 230.000 seats, the municipalities won will be showed as well, 1 seat each subregion. So Lisbon city population that means 12 mps, is represented as 12.001 total seats. That would mean that PS that won 2019 elections would have 106.000 seats + number of municipalities won. All parties that participated in 2019 elections are represented. 

Some Images and profiles of the most important politicians:

image.thumb.png.5014948d4cc1ee6869d165afb6e7e752.png

image.thumb.png.904be4a52e5bb7e15c91b07dec44bef4.png

image.thumb.png.fdc1f5ab537ab6fe741d64387904d906.png

image.thumb.png.4978eeaa40cd58c542b19f2e65e8f1aa.png

image.thumb.png.625243ca0cfc3b030a91c6b2a3c19fdb.png

image.thumb.png.d4d54442591d5910c9c260a7d5de66d4.png

image.thumb.png.f1e8346db7d9495e13add7ce893fcbfb.png

image.thumb.png.d66bbf991827b83d14204c3c436ef190.png

image.thumb.png.e54fc4e878fbdd52696a8166b37d4b80.png

image.thumb.png.04a3aed13a5f6375f7a51122e1193ce7.png

image.thumb.png.095873468ae215b2e34d3dcdeb92c2a7.png

image.thumb.png.67675ad69ab49160e7f25810f73994d5.png

image.thumb.png.f071fa82c66d6b7a4e9ca1d5fc4efb7e.png

image.thumb.png.dbb50fced9ed831cfbcd9377f9f51f71.png

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7 hours ago, Entrecampos said:

I'm doing a Portugal mod with a friend of mine that will have multi legislative elections in the same scenario. Of course 2019 is the main focus and the most balanced scenario. I would say 2019 main scenario is at 60% in this moment. 2015 mini-scenario at 10%. The others need more time.  Maybe I will send the files when 2019 scenario is completed even if the other mini-scenarios aren't. The scenario will have 22 main regions (districts+foreign) and more than 308 subregions (municipalities+foreign). The mps will be showed in a total of 230.000 seats, the municipalities won will be showed as well, 1 seat each subregion. So Lisbon city population that means 12 mps, is represented as 12.001 total seats. That would mean that PS that won 2019 elections would have 106.000 seats + number of municipalities won. All parties that participated in 2019 elections are represented. 

Some Images and profiles of the most important politicians:

image.thumb.png.5014948d4cc1ee6869d165afb6e7e752.png

image.thumb.png.904be4a52e5bb7e15c91b07dec44bef4.png

image.thumb.png.fdc1f5ab537ab6fe741d64387904d906.png

image.thumb.png.4978eeaa40cd58c542b19f2e65e8f1aa.png

image.thumb.png.625243ca0cfc3b030a91c6b2a3c19fdb.png

image.thumb.png.d4d54442591d5910c9c260a7d5de66d4.png

image.thumb.png.f1e8346db7d9495e13add7ce893fcbfb.png

image.thumb.png.d66bbf991827b83d14204c3c436ef190.png

image.thumb.png.e54fc4e878fbdd52696a8166b37d4b80.png

image.thumb.png.04a3aed13a5f6375f7a51122e1193ce7.png

image.thumb.png.095873468ae215b2e34d3dcdeb92c2a7.png

image.thumb.png.67675ad69ab49160e7f25810f73994d5.png

image.thumb.png.f071fa82c66d6b7a4e9ca1d5fc4efb7e.png

image.thumb.png.dbb50fced9ed831cfbcd9377f9f51f71.png

Two questions - will the 1911-1926 elections (and maybe some of the later Constitutional Monarchy Cortes elections) ever be touched upon (I'm a big historical election buff), and, do you really think the FPTP method of PMI will do any justice to the hybrid, MMP-style electoral system of post-Carnation Revolution Portugal. I foresee wonky results, at best. I would, myself, advise using the old K4E engine until (and if) Anthony coughs an update to the original that's a decade in the waiting, because, because PMI will lead to gross distortion without a mechanic for the separate PR segment in a way the AI with react to and interact with (which is the problem with clumsy rigging's @NYRepublican and @Ido have cobbled up - because the AI still behaves as though they're running an FPTP campaign). This is what I'd strongly recommend, as I always such cringe at MMP or PR elections done by PMI just to keep up with the current engine and because Anthony is dragging his feet on an engine to cover the actual majority of legislative elections in the world today.

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@Ido I see you're currently reading this, and probably preparing a response, probably to suggest your alternate system. But to be fair - and less harsh than I have been - your alternate system is built around emulating pure PR, but not really MMP, which is a hybrid of FPTP and PR that are what K4E had been built around, and thus, for THAT reason, I believe your alternate system would not create proper results anymore than standard PMI would.

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Honestly I wasn't planning on saying anything, my system can't really work on non pure PR elections if we're honest. But I guess that it's possible to modify it to suit Portugal.

 

(Also I tried to code and Israel scenario into K4E only to figure out that I can't change the threshold from 5% which will just ruin everything) @Patine

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Hey Ido, we use D'Hondt system in our elections, do you think that you can modify your system to be useful for Portugal elections? I would thank you very much if you could do that!

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@Entrecampos My system was designed to simulate seat distribution in a D'Hondt system, so I guess that it can work as is.

To implement the system you have to make several estimations on what each "Bloc" of voters is worth in seats, let's say that Urban leftist voters are worth 20 seats, the important part is identifying how many seats swing voters constitute, this workaround is good at simulating sectorial heavy politics like Israel's, I think that Portugal can work on this too though. The only downside that I know of is that popular vote doesn't correlate with seat count

You can always ask me for help if you need to

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49 minutes ago, Ido said:

@Entrecampos My system was designed to simulate seat distribution in a D'Hondt system, so I guess that it can work as is.

To implement the system you have to make several estimations on what each "Bloc" of voters is worth in seats, let's say that Urban leftist voters are worth 20 seats, the important part is identifying how many seats swing voters constitute, this workaround is good at simulating sectorial heavy politics like Israel's, I think that Portugal can work on this too though. The only downside that I know of is that popular vote doesn't correlate with seat count

You can always ask me for help if you need to

The "bloc" of voters thing I think is the Achilles' heel of your system there (and I'm trying to be productive). It leads to results that would become too predictable. Maybe in some nations that works well, but not in others, where surprise results come out of nowhere. Also, how would you apply that idea to post Apartheid South Africa's PR system, where the two biggest parties - the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, play sweeping, big-tent parties and cross the lines of logical voting blocs freely? Again, I'm trying to be more constructive in my criticism now, as opposed to the unreasoning hostility I showed before.

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@Patine well you can always make blocs less stable than I made them out to be in Israel, where blocs are rather solid

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1 hour ago, Ido said:

@Patine well you can always make blocs less stable than I made them out to be in Israel, where blocs are rather solid

I suppose that is true. Maybe I've been hasty in judging your system. I still K4E is best for the actual MMP - the hybrid of FPTP and PR - but you may be on to something. The big concern I have is the AI's ability to work with it. I'll have to try your released Israel scenarios a few more with an eye on AI behaviour.

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of course the game designed to simulate PR is best at this, but imo K4E isn't versatile enough to simulate Israel or Portugal though (such as not being able to really simulate demographics which is very important in Israel or not being able to change the threshold)

 

@Patine

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10 minutes ago, Ido said:

of course the game designed to simulate PR is best at this, but imo K4E isn't versatile enough to simulate Israel or Portugal though (such as not being able to really simulate demographics which is very important in Israel or not being able to change the threshold)

 

@Patine

Nor likely Post-Apartheid South Africa (though that too would need a rethinking of how your system in demographic blocs), and so would a few other Continental European countries. But many other Continental European countries (though not all), as well as the Brazilian, Mexican, Chilean, Colombian, Venezuelan, Argentinian, and Filipino Chambers of Deputies, the 1996-and-after New Zealand Parliament, and the Japanese Diet need actual MMP, as in the hybrid system used in K4E. The Republic of Ireland, with it's idiosyncratic STV system, is a bit of a puzzle, as is the French Parliament's two round FPTP system.

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On 10/16/2019 at 7:29 PM, Patine said:

Two questions - will the 1911-1926 elections (and maybe some of the later Constitutional Monarchy Cortes elections) ever be touched upon (I'm a big historical election buff), and, do you really think the FPTP method of PMI will do any justice to the hybrid, MMP-style electoral system of post-Carnation Revolution Portugal. I foresee wonky results, at best. I would, myself, advise using the old K4E engine until (and if) Anthony coughs an update to the original that's a decade in the waiting, because, because PMI will lead to gross distortion without a mechanic for the separate PR segment in a way the AI with react to and interact with (which is the problem with clumsy rigging's @NYRepublican and @Ido have cobbled up - because the AI still behaves as though they're running an FPTP campaign). This is what I'd strongly recommend, as I always such cringe at MMP or PR elections done by PMI just to keep up with the current engine and because Anthony is dragging his feet on an engine to cover the actual majority of legislative elections in the world today.

I did only seen that now,  well, 1911-1926 are out of perspective, lack of reliable data about those elections. And I'm not interested at all in those. Although would be very interesting to do 1958 Presidential Elections in Estado Novo for example (I will not do).  

About what you said in bold I'm not sure about it. I'm trying different ideas, one of them is to divide districts by number of mp's inside. And reducing the value of biggest parties progressively. Another is to do a Portuguese division of 230 invented subregions. Another is to do 460 mps Parliament (double of 230), that would result at least in 1 MP by municipality. Another is to forget seats and use seats to describe the number of winning municipalities.

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46 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

I did only seen that now,  well, 1911-1926 are out of perspective, lack of reliable data about those elections. And I'm not interested at all in those. Although would be very interesting to do 1958 Presidential Elections in Estado Novo for example (I will not do).  

About what you said in bold I'm not sure about it. I'm trying different ideas, one of them is to divide districts by number of mp's inside. And reducing the value of biggest parties progressively. Another is to do a Portuguese division of 230 invented subregions. Another is to do 460 mps Parliament (double of 230), that would result at least in 1 MP by municipality. Another is to forget seats and use seats to describe the number of winning municipalities.

And, although your screenshots do not include a planned electoral map, would I assume correctly that the Madeira and the Azores Islands would be included in scenarios after their political integration in the early- to mid-1980's, I believe it was?

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25 minutes ago, Patine said:

And, although your screenshots do not include a planned electoral map, would I assume correctly that the Madeira and the Azores Islands would be included in scenarios after their political integration in the early- to mid-1980's, I believe it was?

Madeira and Azores were present in all elections since Carnage Revolution.

We are indecisive between a simpler map:

Or a complex map with all 308 municipalities clickable (a bit megalomaniac maybe):


 

mapgood3.bmp map.bmp

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6 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

 

Madeira and Azores were present in all elections since Carnage Revolution.

We are indecisive between a simpler map:

Or a complex map with all 308 municipalities clickable (a bit megalomaniac maybe):


 

mapgood3.bmp 745.78 kB · 2 downloads map.bmp 745.68 kB · 2 downloads

My mistake. I was thinking of when they're official flags as external municipalities were adopted, which was the early- to mid-80's. You are correct on electoral integration. I'll have a quick over these maps.

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I made some progress in defining the seats, Lisbon District, the biggest of all districts means 48 seats in reality.
I created 48 different seats in Lisbon area. I will show what is included in a map (not the map that I will use in final phase, it's only for informative reasons here).

Portugal Informative Map with number of MPS and with the name of Districts:

image.png.fcec15ef137db848bfe074841a8e5a51.png
A = Azores
B = Madeira
C = Oporto (40 instead of 48 showed)
D = Setúbal
E = Beja
F = Évora
G = Portalegre
H = Foreign (Europe+Rest of World)
I = Santarém
J = Leiria
K = Castelo Branco
L = Coimbra
M = Aveiro in North and Algarve in South (My mistake using the same M)
N = Viseu
O = Guarda
P = Bragança
Q = Vila Real
R = Braga
S = Viana do Castelo
48 Is Lisbon District

Lisbon District Informative Map with number of MPS, names of municipalities and registered voters:
image.png.89b4990280b8bba2c1c95ee88cb6a908.png
A: Lourinhã+Cadaval+Azambuja = 52.837
B: Torres Vedras = 68.231
C: Mafra+Sobral de Monte Agraço = 74.041
D: Alenquer+Arruda dos Vinhos = 46.590
E: Vila Franca de Xira = 113.348
F: Loures = 168.563
G: Sintra = 318.983
H: Cascais = 177.498
I: Oeiras = 146.733
J: Amadora = 145.142
K: Odivelas = 126.444
L: Lisbon = 483.087

Lisbon Municipality, each color represents 1 MP and parishes of Lisbon:


image.png.e4210762ac4f36401fefea3641c3e692.png

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1 hour ago, Entrecampos said:

I created a pseudo-D'Hondt semi-model.

image.png.e46c2a914bf25705030596f859dbbe2f.png

image.png.5a30e0626235c6a1682f3254565be38d.png

image.png.9d555d9a75d582c843ea6cb24ae7f8f6.png


Not perfect (like in Portalegre) but useful...

image.png.243c26e07ac97401de2a8263ca7e18d9.png

 

I will explain later how this pseudo-model works.

 

Why is the whole rest of the world on the map in miniature in the corner?

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