Jump to content
270soft Forum
vcczar

Biden not planning on winning nomination?

2020 Election Poll if Warren is the nominee  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will you vote for if Warren is the Democratic Nominee?

    • Warren
    • Trump
    • 3rd party
      0
    • Won't vote, or I'll consider not voting
  2. 2. Which crucial battleground states will Warren likely win against Trump? (feel free to post a map using 270towin)

    • Ohio
    • Pennsylvania
    • Michigan
    • Wisconsin
    • New Hampshire
    • Maine at large
    • Virginia
    • Minnesota
    • Florida
    • North Carolina
    • Iowa
    • Nevada
    • Colorado
    • Georgia
    • Texas
    • Arizona
    • Maine (that one conservative district)
    • Nebraska (that one moderate district)
    • Other state not listed as a battleground state will flip to Warren (list below)
      0
  3. 3. What will be Warren's margin of victory/defeat in the Popular Vote against Trump be?

    • She''ll win by more than 10 pts
      0
    • +9
      0
    • +8
      0
    • +7 (Obama's 2008 victory over McCain)
    • +6
      0
    • +5
    • +4 (Obama's 2012 victory over Romney)
    • +3
    • +2 (Clinton's 2016 PV lead over Trump)
    • +1
      0
    • +0 (She'll lead by less than 0.5%)
    • -0 (She'll lose the PV by less than 0.5%)
    • -1 to -2
    • -3 to -4
    • -5 to -6
      0
    • -7 to -8
      0
    • -9 to -10
      0
    • More than -10
      0


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

No I'm simply saying that if voting is for virgins potato would be the one to know. You and I arent cut out for that kind of thing.

 

Just now, Patine said:

Ah, of course. That's what I had meant by the "over 6-8% of eligible voters every election" thing.

Is he old enough to vote? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SilentLiberty said:

 

Is he old enough to vote? 

He wasn't when he first joined the forum. He self-identified as 15 or something at the time. I'm not exactly certain his age now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Patine said:

He wasn't when he first joined the forum. He self-identified as 15 or something at the time. I'm not exactly certain his age now.

He has talked about drinking, smoking cigars, owning stocks, and owning guns, but, still so edgy meme lord type. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It probably goes without saying at this point, but I took "Trump" in your poll to mean "whomever the Republican nominee in 2020 is, whether it's Trump or not".  My answers remain the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Actinguy You've generally been pessimistic of Democrats chances for beating Trump in 2020; yet, you have Warren winning the PV by 5 pts, higher than everyone, and winning just enough states to win the EC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Actinguy You've generally been pessimistic of Democrats chances for beating Trump in 2020; yet, you have Warren winning the PV by 5 pts, higher than everyone, and winning just enough states to win the EC. 

Ha. True.  You must have caught me on a good day. ;c)

But seriously:  I took 2016 for granted.  I thought it was a done deal months in advance.  But I'm not resting this time.  I'm fighting for every one of those states, every step of the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Patine said:

He wasn't when he first joined the forum. He self-identified as 15 or something at the time. I'm not exactly certain his age now.

Are you sure? When I first joined, I could have sworn he said he was only 12 or 13. I remember he also posted a picture of himself and he looked no older than 10 or 11. That would have been before the 2016 election, though. I may be wrong about him saying he was 12 or 13, but I do remember the picture for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jnewt said:

Are you sure? When I first joined, I could have sworn he said he was only 12 or 13. I remember he also posted a picture of himself and he looked no older than 10 or 11. That would have been before the 2016 election, though. I may be wrong about him saying he was 12 or 13, but I do remember the picture for sure.

@ThePotatoWalrus is about 17 or 18. He went to a prom recently. @Reagan04 has to be about 15 or 16 now. You might be confusing the two. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@ThePotatoWalrus is about 17 or 18. He went to a prom recently. @Reagan04 has to be about 15 or 16 now. You might be confusing the two. 

Hmmm maybe I'm confusing them about the first part but I distinctly remember the extremely young looking picture to be potato. He may have just looked very young for his age, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, jnewt said:

Hmmm maybe I'm confusing them about the first part but I distinctly remember the extremely young looking picture to be potato. He may have just looked very young for his age, though.

I looked like I was 12 when I was 16. At 22, I looked 18. At 30, I looked 24. At 36, I looked 28. Now I'm 40, and I look about 32. People just age differently. Fortunately, I feel like I'm only 32 too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, jnewt said:

Hmmm maybe I'm confusing them about the first part but I distinctly remember the extremely young looking picture to be potato. He may have just looked very young for his age, though.

Yeah I used to be one baby-faced mf (still kinda am ngl), think I used an older pic of me from like 2015 in a self-made campaign or something back in early '16 if that rings a bell so I'd for sure look absolutely younger

19 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

He has talked about drinking, smoking cigars, owning stocks, and owning guns, but, still so edgy meme lord type. 

I quit drinking months ago. I also do stocks, online poker, and sportsbetting as ways to lose money on the side. I do own a couple firearms myself that I own for hunting/self-defense.

14 hours ago, vcczar said:

@ThePotatoWalrus is about 17 or 18. He went to a prom recently. @Reagan04 has to be about 15 or 16 now. You might be confusing the two. 

Recently 18, think Reagan is actually 16 or 17 but idk. I aged pretty well since '16.

13 hours ago, vcczar said:

I looked like I was 12 when I was 16. At 22, I looked 18. At 30, I looked 24. At 36, I looked 28. Now I'm 40, and I look about 32. People just age differently. Fortunately, I feel like I'm only 32 too. 

I feel like I look a little younger than 18 but I went to a wine bar yesterday and ordered cigars without getting carded (Ohio goes to 21 for tobacco in October 17th officially, but some places did it at the beginning of the month)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

But now i'm just an 18 year old boomer. I hate Millenials and Gen X

Preach. Back in my day, we WORKED for our super affordable housing and college tuition, smh (insert minion meme here)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Preach. Back in my day, we WORKED for our super affordable housing and college tuition, smh (insert minion meme here)

pls comment "amen" below like and share

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Preach. Back in my day, we WORKED for our super affordable housing and college tuition, smh (insert minion meme here)

 

4 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

pls comment "amen" below like and share

Given that being in 1960 is the TAIL END recognized for being into the Boomer Generation, being an 18-year-old Boomer is a mathematical impossibility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Patine said:

 

Given that being in 1960 is the TAIL END recognized for being into the Boomer Generation, being an 18-year-old Boomer is a mathematical impossibility.

😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Patine said:

Given that being in 1960 is the TAIL END recognized for being into the Boomer Generation, being an 18-year-old Boomer is a mathematical impossibility.

I love you so much lmao

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I love you so much lmao

Well, don't feel bad. I'm not a Boomer either. But my mother is in that generation. And you should see some of the old photos of here from her late teen, early 20's - including the ones where I'm an infant. Not quite full out "Moon Flower," but interesting nonetheless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/11/2019 at 12:46 PM, pilight said:

This is very similar to Rudy Giuliani's "Florida Strategy" from 2008.  

Or also a similar strategy used by then-Tennessee Senator Al Gore in 1988 when Gore effectively ignored Iowa and New Hampshire to effectively "bet the farm" on a good showing on the mostly-Southern Super Tuesday contests (which, unlike Giuliani's Florida Strategy, was at least a partial success with Gore winning 5 primaries and the Nevada caucus, though it was largely a three-way split between Gore, Jesse Jackson and Michael Dukakis and Gore failed to win anywhere else before being knocked out after New York)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/11/2019 at 10:18 AM, vcczar said:

This seems a little preemptive: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465371-report-biden-campaign-plans-to-lose-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada

"Report: Biden Campaign Plans to Lose IA, NH, and NV." 

The probability that Biden can win by only winning SC is very, very low. If this is true, then the nominee is going to probably be Warren, unless 1) Sanders regains health and scores an upset in IA and NH or, 2) Buttigieg or another scores an upset victory. 

Reminds me of Rudy Giuliani's strategy in 2008 - to avoid competing in every state until Florida, where he was ahead in the polls.  He didn't finish ahead in the polls, that's for sure.  I think he got 1 delegate at the convention.

It's always risky putting one's stock in polls from later primary states.  These polls often shift after the first few contests, especially Iowa and New Hampshire, depending on who is perceived as the front-runner(s).  Dean was ahead in New Hampshire in 2003, until Kerry won Iowa.  Hillary was ahead in South Carolina in 2007, until Obama won Iowa.

I agree this looks bad for Biden, if true.  Bernie is done - people aren't going to vote for a guy pushing 80 who had a heart attack when the campaign was just getting started, and he wasn't doing that great to begin with.  Warren seems to be the one with the momentum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...