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vcczar

Biden not planning on winning nomination?

2020 Election Poll if Warren is the nominee  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will you vote for if Warren is the Democratic Nominee?

    • Warren
    • Trump
    • 3rd party
      0
    • Won't vote, or I'll consider not voting
  2. 2. Which crucial battleground states will Warren likely win against Trump? (feel free to post a map using 270towin)

    • Ohio
    • Pennsylvania
    • Michigan
    • Wisconsin
    • New Hampshire
    • Maine at large
    • Virginia
    • Minnesota
    • Florida
    • North Carolina
    • Iowa
    • Nevada
    • Colorado
    • Georgia
    • Texas
    • Arizona
    • Maine (that one conservative district)
    • Nebraska (that one moderate district)
    • Other state not listed as a battleground state will flip to Warren (list below)
      0
  3. 3. What will be Warren's margin of victory/defeat in the Popular Vote against Trump be?

    • She''ll win by more than 10 pts
      0
    • +9
      0
    • +8
      0
    • +7 (Obama's 2008 victory over McCain)
    • +6
      0
    • +5
    • +4 (Obama's 2012 victory over Romney)
    • +3
    • +2 (Clinton's 2016 PV lead over Trump)
    • +1
      0
    • +0 (She'll lead by less than 0.5%)
    • -0 (She'll lose the PV by less than 0.5%)
    • -1 to -2
    • -3 to -4
    • -5 to -6
      0
    • -7 to -8
      0
    • -9 to -10
      0
    • More than -10
      0


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This seems a little preemptive: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465371-report-biden-campaign-plans-to-lose-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada

"Report: Biden Campaign Plans to Lose IA, NH, and NV." 

The probability that Biden can win by only winning SC is very, very low. If this is true, then the nominee is going to probably be Warren, unless 1) Sanders regains health and scores an upset in IA and NH or, 2) Buttigieg or another scores an upset victory. 

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Another question is: Who drops out prior to Super Tuesday in this situation. 

Iowa Primary: Warren 23%, Biden 20%, Sanders 12%, Buttigieg 11%, Harris 5% --- the rest negligible. 

New Hampshire Primary: Warren 30%, Biden 20%, Buttigieg 13%, Sanders 12%, Harris 4% -- the rest negligible. 

Nevada Primary: Warren 20%, Sanders 18%, Biden 17% , Buttigieg 10% -- the rest negligible 

South Carolina Primary: Biden 25%,  Warren 20%, Buttigieg 10%, Sanders 9% -- the rest negligible.  (Biden will drop out if he loses SC)

 

In this scenario, I think all the negligible people drop out, except for Gabbard. I think Sanders drops out and endorses Warren over Gabbard, so that she can beat Biden on Super Tuesday. I think Buttigieg is pressure to drop out and endorse Biden, but he stays in. Thus, despite starting with a 20+ field, only Warren, Biden, Buttigieg, and Gabbard stay in the race. 

Super Tuesday states are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. 

Of these, I think Biden wins AL, AR, NC, OK, TN, TX, and VA. 

I think Warren wins CA, Dem Abroad, ME, MA, MN, UT, VT. 

At this point, Buttigieg drops out and endorses Biden (although he might shock people and endorse Warren), and Gabbard endorses Warren. 

Considering Biden only won one state likely to go Blue (VA) and Warren took five states with a strong Democratic base, including the CA jackpot, It's likely Warren has way more endorsers than Biden after Super Tuesday. 

I think the OH, AZ, FL, and IL primaries later in the month will lead to Biden or Warren dropping out. 

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@Reagan04 it looks increasingly closer like you'll have to throw away your moral criticism of Trump and vote for him. How far would the impeachment investigation have to go for you to vote for Warren? Or would you not vote or vote 3rd party?

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Just now, vcczar said:

@Reagan04 it looks increasingly closer like you'll have to throw away your moral criticism of Trump and vote for him. How far would the impeachment investigation have to go for you to vote for Warren? Or would you not vote or vote 3rd party?

That was my bad, I meant 3rd party. It's too early to say but if Amash seeks the LP nomination he's got my vote. It's clear that Trump is a traitor to the United States, so it doesn't matter who the Democratic nominee is. I might write-in Mike Lee. Then again, I do want to see how far the investigation goes.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

This seems a little preemptive: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465371-report-biden-campaign-plans-to-lose-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada

"Report: Biden Campaign Plans to Lose IA, NH, and NV." 

The probability that Biden can win by only winning SC is very, very low. If this is true, then the nominee is going to probably be Warren, unless 1) Sanders regains health and scores an upset in IA and NH or, 2) Buttigieg or another scores an upset victory. 

Putting on my public relations hat, since this is what I do for a living:

It's just Biden's campaign intentionally lowering expectations.

So far, the media narrative has largely been "BIDEN IS UNSTOPPABLE!!!" which is great for Biden...until he ends up actually being stopped (at least temporarily) in one of the aforementioned states.

There's literally no way for him to beat expectations right now.  He's supposed to be in first place in almost any state.  It's like cheering for the Patriots -- why bother?  They're SUPPOSED to go undefeated every single year.  All you're going to do is be upset when they invariably lose a game or two to a team that was supposed to be beneath them, since they're supposed to have no equals.

So they lower expectations.  "We're not worried about any state that Biden is polling at less than a 20% lead, and we'll still clean up on Super Tuesday."

But of COURSE they are actually worried.  Of COURSE they want to win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada too.  But they are also, of course, aware of the strong likelihood that they could lose one, or two, or even three.

Set the media narrative now that you expect to do badly there.  If you end up in second place, or even a solid third, now you have met expectations instead of being the Goliath felled by a single kid with a slingshot.  And if you get first?  Wow!  Things are going even better for the front runner than anyone could have dreamed!  

These are just PR games, and shouldn't be taken seriously.

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36 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

That was my bad, I meant 3rd party. It's too early to say but if Amash seeks the LP nomination he's got my vote. It's clear that Trump is a traitor to the United States, so it doesn't matter who the Democratic nominee is. I might write-in Mike Lee. Then again, I do want to see how far the investigation goes.

As much as you don't want to vote for Warren it would actually make it more likely that Trump loses if the vote goes to Warren rather than write-in Mike Lee, considering the winner will either be Trump or Warren. A Mike Lee write in might be a -1 vote for Trump from a conservative, but it isn't as damaging as a switch to Warren, since it isn't a +1 for Trump's only competition. So it's kind of a half-way attempt to block Trump's renomination. I think you're in VA, which is a battleground state, so your vote is more important than in many states. I understand you voting Amash if they have a shot at the 5% PV they need for funding or whatever. Nevertheless, it's your vote. 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

As much as you don't want to vote for Warren it would actually make it more likely that Trump loses if the vote goes to Warren rather than write-in Mike Lee, considering the winner will either be Trump or Warren. A Mike Lee write in might be a -1 vote for Trump from a conservative, but it isn't as damaging as a switch to Warren, since it isn't a +1 for Trump's only competition. So it's kind of a half-way attempt to block Trump's renomination. I think you're in VA, which is a battleground state, so your vote is more important than in many states. I understand you voting Amash if they have a shot at the 5% PV they need for funding or whatever. Nevertheless, it's your vote. 

Maybe he doesn't want Warren to win more than he doesn't want Trump to win?

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45 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

It's just Biden's campaign intentionally lowering expectations.

Ya, I think Ball was right as well when she said this in the video.

It seems they're looking at changing messaging from 'inevitable winner' to 'scrappy underdog from Scranton, PA' or something like that.

What can I say? < 4 months out and we have a race!

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23 minutes ago, vcczar said:

As much as you don't want to vote for Warren it would actually make it more likely that Trump loses if the vote goes to Warren rather than write-in Mike Lee, considering the winner will either be Trump or Warren. A Mike Lee write in might be a -1 vote for Trump from a conservative, but it isn't as damaging as a switch to Warren, since it isn't a +1 for Trump's only competition. So it's kind of a half-way attempt to block Trump's renomination. I think you're in VA, which is a battleground state, so your vote is more important than in many states. I understand you voting Amash if they have a shot at the 5% PV they need for funding or whatever. Nevertheless, it's your vote. 

 

19 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Maybe he doesn't want Warren to win more than he doesn't want Trump to win?

I think Elizabeth Warren would be equally damaging to the country. The only person I think would damage the country more than Trump has is Bernie Sanders. I put Warren and Trump on the same footing in that regard. Meaning that I can't in good conscious support either of them to be the next President. But I'm also not not voting.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

This seems a little preemptive: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465371-report-biden-campaign-plans-to-lose-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada

"Report: Biden Campaign Plans to Lose IA, NH, and NV." 

The probability that Biden can win by only winning SC is very, very low. If this is true, then the nominee is going to probably be Warren, unless 1) Sanders regains health and scores an upset in IA and NH or, 2) Buttigieg or another scores an upset victory. 

This is very similar to Rudy Giuliani's "Florida Strategy" from 2008.  

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

 

I think Elizabeth Warren would be equally damaging to the country. The only person I think would damage the country more than Trump has is Bernie Sanders. I put Warren and Trump on the same footing in that regard. Meaning that I can't in good conscious support either of them to be the next President. But I'm also not not voting.

This makes sense. I shouldn't have thrown my two cents in anyway tbh hah. 

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1 minute ago, SilentLiberty said:

This makes sense. I shouldn't have thrown my two cents in anyway tbh hah. 

Nah you were absolutely correct.

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Again, totally depends on who Warren picks as a VP

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1 hour ago, pilight said:

This is very similar to Rudy Giuliani's "Florida Strategy" from 2008.  

Yes, except with Rudy, it was a sincere strategy.  With Biden, it's smoke and mirrors.

Notably, Rudy's strategy hinged on getting what he thought was a "sure thing" endorsement from then much-beloved Republican Governor Charlie Crist.  Instead, Crist pulled out at the last second and endorsed McCain.  And then went on to turn away from the party entirely, joining the Democrats instead.  He's also gone from beloved Governor to "...who?" Representative.  It's been quite the journey for Charlie.

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15 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Who would like to see her pick?

Somebody pretty progressive since I don’t believe she would govern as progressively as she campaigns. Sanders or Grijalva would probably be more first two choices, but I can’t imagine she would pick either of them due to their ages. Out of people who would she realistically pick, Gillum might be the best choice for me despite my issues with him. And even though she’s really not all that progressive, I’d like Stacey Abrams. I think she would be much more progressive if she weren’t running for a Senate seat in Georgia. 

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Andre Carson would be one of my top choices too

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So far, our opinion poll is showing a clear PV victory for Warren, but she loses to Trump because she can't flip PA. 

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Yes, except with Rudy, it was a sincere strategy.  With Biden, it's smoke and mirrors.

Notably, Rudy's strategy hinged on getting what he thought was a "sure thing" endorsement from then much-beloved Republican Governor Charlie Crist.  Instead, Crist pulled out at the last second and endorsed McCain.  And then went on to turn away from the party entirely, joining the Democrats instead.  He's also gone from beloved Governor to "...who?" Representative.  It's been quite the journey for Charlie.

Rudy made it a strategy after the polls turned against him in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Rudy made about the same number of appearances in Iowa as McCain.  The day before the New Hampshire primary Rudy said "We've actually spent the most time in New Hampshire".  He made a ton of campaign stops there, Giuliani held 126. That's considerably more than McCain, who held 104, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who held 93.  McCain, you'll recall, won the primary.

A few months earlier he said  “Our largest staff contingent is now in Iowa. ... We're going to make a big effort in Iowa. We're making a big effort and our strategy was to focus on the caucuses.”  Right after the first straw poll, his campaign manager said “We are 100 percent committed to winning Iowa and I believe we will do so."  

The whole notion of Rudy skipping the early states was spin, trying to minimize the damage done by his poor showings.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Prob won't vote bc voting is for virgins but if I did I'd pick Trump

So, why is voter turnout over 6-8% of eligible voters in most elections?

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Just now, Patine said:

So, why is voter turnout over 6-8% of eligible voters in most elections?

To be fair I think he'd know a lot more about voting than you considering he surely has been voting his entire life. So we both should defer to the expert, he's right, voting is for him not us.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

To be fair I think he'd know a lot more about voting than you considering he surely has been voting his entire life. So we both should defer to the expert, he's right, voting is for him not us.

I've been voting since 1994.

Oh, you were being sarcastic. :P

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6 minutes ago, Patine said:

I've been voting since 1994.

Oh, you were being sarcastic. :P

No I'm simply saying that if voting is for virgins potato would be the one to know. You and I arent cut out for that kind of thing.

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

No I'm simply saying that if voting is for virgins potato would be the one to know. You and I arent cut out for that kind of thing.

Ah, of course. That's what I had meant by the "over 6-8% of eligible voters every election" thing.

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