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Actinguy

Bernie Sanders hospitalized, cancelling events

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9 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I hate to say it, but this is a good turn of events for progressives. Bernie knows he's not able to win. This is a good opportunity for him to drop out and endorse Warren, who can CRUSH Biden without having so much competition within the same lane.

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15 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Don't know what he will do; but if I was a candidate for any office (especially President) in a position where I had to undergo heart surgery, especially at 78 (and considering both Bernie and Joe Biden - himself the subject of a lot of speculation about his health - would both, if elected, turn 80 fairly early on in their term) I personally would hang it up.

Edited by HamptonRoadsTVFan
slightly clarifying post

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He also just cancelled his ad-buy in the state of Iowa. 


Hopefully his recovery is safe. 

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6 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

He also just cancelled his ad-buy in the state of Iowa. 


Hopefully his recovery is safe. 

Oh shit -- that's huge.

Cancelling events while he recovers for a bit is perfectly valid while remaining in the race.

But cancelling TV ads is inexplicable, unless you really believe this is the end.

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The recovery time for open-heart surgery like this is not minor. My understanding is the hospital stay is usually at least a week. It then takes weeks or months to get back to regular levels of activity.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

The recovery time for open-heart surgery like this is not minor. My understanding is the hospital stay is usually at least a week. It then takes weeks or months to get back to regular levels of activity.

How do you believe Bernie dropping out and endorsing Warren affects the race?

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5 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

How do you believe Bernie dropping out and endorsing Warren affects the race?

This may have been targeted at Admin, but my take is...

Bernie supporters go about 50% to Warren, 25% to Yang, and 25% to "fuck it, I'm staying home."

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2 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

How do you believe Bernie dropping out and endorsing Warren affects the race?

My guess is it will accelerate the process we've been seeing over the last few months, where Warren has gone from about 8% in June to 24% as of today in the RCP average.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

This may have been targeted at Admin, but my take is...

Bernie supporters go about 50% to Warren, 25% to Yang, and 25% to "fuck it, I'm staying home."

Likewise, if Biden is forced out at any point (due to Age, Ukraine, whatever) I'd expect about a 1/3 split for each of Warren, Buttigieg, and Booker.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Bernie supporters go about 50% to Warren, 25% to Yang, and 25% to "fuck it, I'm staying home."

Recent polling of Sanders supporters suggests 2nd choices are about even between Biden and Warren.

Here's a recent example from Morning Consult.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

In this case Morning Consult tends towards a larger gap between Biden and Warren than various other pollsters - my guess is Warren would have the edge if Sanders did drop out, and more so if he endorses her.

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Sanders is my favorite politician but maybe not my favorite presidential candidate. This is going to sound awful but this might be a blessing for Dems. If Sanders can’t run, Bernie or Bust supporters might actually consider Warren, at least some  of them. 

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My dad and most of  older people  i know had stents.Bernie will be back! 

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I wish him all the best. Political issues don't matter when it comes to personal issues.

From an analytic point of view, it might be the best for him to drop out and endorse Warren regardless of his possibility to start his campaign again. 

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The procedure he had is pretty common, and doesn't take very long to recover. Bill Clinton had it in I think 2010 (and was obviously much younger than Bernie is now). 

 

I do worry that this is going to have many people questioning his health and having a negative effect on his campaign. His campaign says that the ads are just being postponed, perhaps because they coincided with events he was having that he now cancelled. 

Either way, Bernie is my favorite politician and I hope he is back on the trail soon. 

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Oh shit -- that's huge.

Cancelling events while he recovers for a bit is perfectly valid while remaining in the race.

But cancelling TV ads is inexplicable, unless you really believe this is the end.

It's a moderately high risk surgery on a 78 year old.  No sense spending ad money on someone who may not be able to run.

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1 minute ago, MysteryKnight said:

I do worry that this is going to have many people questioning his health and having a negative effect on his campaign.

Yes. There's lots of time to recover - the first primary isn't for 4 months. But if he continues his bid (and I'm guessing he will), how will this affect voters' perceptions about health concerns? The truth is, though, Biden is about the same age, but he works out every day and has had hair implants and plastic surgery.

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12 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Yes. There's lots of time to recover - the first primary isn't for 4 months. But if he continues his bid (and I'm guessing he will), how will this affect voters' perceptions about health concerns? The truth is, though, Biden is about the same age, but he works out every day and has had hair implants and plastic surgery.

Bernie may be physically worse for wear than Biden. But mentally Biden is so far gone compared to Bernie.

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43 minutes ago, MysteryKnight said:

His campaign says that the ads are just being postponed

That's spin.  I work in public relations, and know a fellow connoisseur  when I see one.  ;c)

They have to say it's postponed, because if they say it's cancelled forever, then that means they're officially announcing the campaign is over.

They're not there yet -- presumably weighing their options -- so they've "postponed."

But postponing doesn't make a lick of sense if you're committed to continuing.  It's not like they're worried about the money, they were the top fundraiser this quarter.

The only way "postponing" makes sense is if you really just don't know what's going to happen next -- at BEST.  (At worst, it's already decided that it's over but they're working out the details of that announcement).

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Sanders is my favorite politician but maybe not my favorite presidential candidate. This is going to sound awful but this might be a blessing for Dems. If Sanders can’t run, Bernie or Bust supporters might actually consider Warren, at least some  of them. 

Totally agree. This is a really easy way out of a very difficult (but not impossible) race for Bernie.

The ad buy cancellation seems like they may be aware of that. And even if they are "postponed," it creates the question of: did his campaign lack confidence that he would recover well?

3 hours ago, MysteryKnight said:

The procedure he had is pretty common, and doesn't take very long to recover. Bill Clinton had it in I think 2010 (and was obviously much younger than Bernie is now). 

 

I do worry that this is going to have many people questioning his health and having a negative effect on his campaign. His campaign says that the ads are just being postponed, perhaps because they coincided with events he was having that he now cancelled. 

Either way, Bernie is my favorite politician and I hope he is back on the trail soon. 

Yeah, I think it's unfair that people are going to judge his health for something that's pretty common and far from a life-threatening procedure. BUT... people are going to judge. And now there is a "Hillary has secret Parkinson's!" type of insidious scandal for the GE.

3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Yes. There's lots of time to recover - the first primary isn't for 4 months. But if he continues his bid (and I'm guessing he will), how will this affect voters' perceptions about health concerns? The truth is, though, Biden is about the same age, but he works out every day and has had hair implants and plastic surgery.

People are definitely very much questioning Biden's health, but the focus is more on his mental health. For either of them, the question will be there.

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28 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

Totally agree. This is a really easy way out of a very difficult (but not impossible) race for Bernie.

The ad buy cancellation seems like they may be aware of that. And even if they are "postponed," it creates the question of: did his campaign lack confidence that he would recover well?

Yeah, I think it's unfair that people are going to judge his health for something that's pretty common and far from a life-threatening procedure. BUT... people are going to judge. And now there is a "Hillary has secret Parkinson's!" type of insidious scandal for the GE.

People are definitely very much questioning Biden's health, but the focus is more on his mental health. For either of them, the question will be there.

I'm not convinced Trump is as well, at least in mental health, as he makes himself out to be, but he won't admit anything because he sees himself surrounded by metaphorical hungry dogs and won't show any weakness, even if the whole country suffers because of it.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

I'm not convinced Trump is as well, at least in mental health, as he makes himself out to be, but he won't admit anything because he sees himself surrounded by metaphorical hungry dogs and won't show any weakness, even if the whole country suffers because of it.

Oh, agreed.

The difference is that Republican voters just don’t care.

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30 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Oh, agreed.

The difference is that Republican voters just don’t care.

"Populism is the Achilles' Heel of the Electoral System," Winston Churchill

"The individual is readily capable of reason, intelligence, education, questioning, wisdom, and astuteness. The masses are stupid," Carl Jung

Good arguments for Trump's level of support.

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4 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Oh so he's a commie at heart too - meaning it doesn't work either.

This is the list of all ideological Communists who have run on the ballot for President of the United States.

William Z. Foster

Earl Browder

Vincent Hallinan

Gus Hall

16 Socialist Labor Party Candidates between 1888-1976

Gloria de la Riva

and technically Henry Wallace (not because he was an actual Communist, but because his short-lived party had a lot of Communists in it)

Bernie Sanders is not on this list. Why? Because he's not a Communist. He's a Social Democrat, which is quite different, especially for those who are actually EDUCATED on the matter of politics.

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