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vcczar

When to take Impeachment Seriously

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[Something I posted elsewhere originally]

I shouldn't have to say the obvious, but if you want to see if this impeachment effort is likely to succeed or not, then mostly ignore what Democrats and Never Trump Republicans are saying. Keep an eye on the following:
1. Cabinet and/or other administrative shake up--firings and resignations. 
2. Mike Pence distancing himself from Trump.
3. Trump increasing how often he holds rallies, as this seems like his main way of defending himself outside of Twitter. 
4. Sen. McConnell and Rep. McCarthy distancing themselves from Trump. 
5. GOP Govs not from New England supporting impeachment inquiry. 
6. Cruz-Lee faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
7. Graham's faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
8. Favorability polls dropping from 43-42% into the 30s consistently. 
9. FOX News giving more time to impeachment talk without defending the president (they'll go neutral). 
10. GOP primaries states that had cancelled the primaries considering reopening them. 
11. More GOP candidates considering a primary run, if it isn't too late. 
12. Polls showing clear Dem victories in all battleground states that were leaning GOP, like OH, NC, FL, IA, TX, GA, AZ. 
13. At least some calls by GOP members calling for Trump's resignation in the Capitol building. 
14. Giuliani turning on Trump or distancing himself from him at least. 
15. Trump's family trying to subtlety exit the administration so they don't get potentially dragged down with him. 
16. Most obvious sign? Melania distances herself from Trump.

I could possibly add, keep an eye on Joe Manchin too. 

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Yes, these are the sorts of things I'd keep my eye on.

Assuming the House impeaches, for a successful removal, the Senate would require 67 votes. There are currently 53 Republicans.

Assuming all Democrats (and independent Senators) voted for removal (something that might not happen - you mention Manchin in particular), it would require

67 - 47 = 20 Republican Senators voting to remove Trump from office. 20/53 = 38% of them.

My guess is this would take a whole lot more than we have now.

At this point, Graham, McCarthy and so on seem to be strongly supporting Trump.

I consider what NeverTrumpers are saying to be a contra-indicator. Take whatever they say, and that is probably not going to happen. This was a reliable guide for me during the Special Counsel.

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17 minutes ago, vcczar said:

[Something I posted elsewhere originally]

I shouldn't have to say the obvious, but if you want to see if this impeachment effort is likely to succeed or not, then mostly ignore what Democrats and Never Trump Republicans are saying. Keep an eye on the following:
1. Cabinet and/or other administrative shake up--firings and resignations. 
2. Mike Pence distancing himself from Trump.
3. Trump increasing how often he holds rallies, as this seems like his main way of defending himself outside of Twitter. 
4. Sen. McConnell and Rep. McCarthy distancing themselves from Trump. 
5. GOP Govs not from New England supporting impeachment inquiry. 
6. Cruz-Lee faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
7. Graham's faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
8. Favorability polls dropping from 43-42% into the 30s consistently. 
9. FOX News giving more time to impeachment talk without defending the president (they'll go neutral). 
10. GOP primaries states that had cancelled the primaries considering reopening them. 
11. More GOP candidates considering a primary run, if it isn't too late. 
12. Polls showing clear Dem victories in all battleground states that were leaning GOP, like OH, NC, FL, IA, TX, GA, AZ. 
13. At least some calls by GOP members calling for Trump's resignation in the Capitol building. 
14. Giuliani turning on Trump or distancing himself from him at least. 
15. Trump's family trying to subtlety exit the administration so they don't get potentially dragged down with him. 
16. Most obvious sign? Melania distances herself from Trump.

I could possibly add, keep an eye on Joe Manchin too. 

1. Is good normally but Trump has a lot of turn over anyway so maybe not the best one.

2. This is a good one.

3. Not a good one. We are getting closer and closer to the primaries and the general so I'd expect him to pick up on these anyway. The content of the rallies might say more though.

4. Agree.

5. Agree.

6. Agree.

7. Agree.

8. 50/50

9. Disagree. Paul Ryan has already stated he intends to weaponize FNC to hurt Trump because he's embarrassed by him. Fox has already been a more neutral outlet in their coverage of Trump anyway.

10. Agree but do not see it happening.

11. Agree, but if it is a small fry then can't read anything into it but you'll really know if a big name joins the race though.

12. Disagree, polling is hard to measure but it might be an interesting indicator for the election as a whole.

13. Sure but don't put a lot of weight behind this one either.

14. Rudy is gonna be fired before he can flip, wouldn't put any merit in anything regarding him.

15. Maybe? I think they are all in, all together though. At least his children.

16. Has she not already?

 

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22 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Yes, these are the sorts of things I'd keep my eye on.

Assuming the House impeaches, for a successful removal, the Senate would require 67 votes. There are currently 53 Republicans.

Assuming all Democrats (and independent Senators) voted for removal (something that might not happen - you mention Manchin in particular), it would require

67 - 47 = 20 Republican Senators voting to remove Trump from office. 20/53 = 38% of them.

My guess is this would take a whole lot more than we have now.

At this point, Graham, McCarthy and so on seem to be strongly supporting Trump.

I consider what NeverTrumpers are saying to be a contra-indicator. Take whatever they say, and that is probably not going to happen. This was a reliable guide for me during the Special Counsel.

Yeah. I see only 8 GOP Senators voting for conviction, with the possibility of about 8 more of the case becomes extremely compelling to convict. I can’t see 20 GOP turning on Trump in an scenario. 

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37 minutes ago, vcczar said:

[Something I posted elsewhere originally]

I shouldn't have to say the obvious, but if you want to see if this impeachment effort is likely to succeed or not, then mostly ignore what Democrats and Never Trump Republicans are saying. Keep an eye on the following:
1. Cabinet and/or other administrative shake up--firings and resignations. 
2. Mike Pence distancing himself from Trump.
3. Trump increasing how often he holds rallies, as this seems like his main way of defending himself outside of Twitter. 
4. Sen. McConnell and Rep. McCarthy distancing themselves from Trump. 
5. GOP Govs not from New England supporting impeachment inquiry. 
6. Cruz-Lee faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
7. Graham's faction in the Senate breaking w/ Trump. 
8. Favorability polls dropping from 43-42% into the 30s consistently. 
9. FOX News giving more time to impeachment talk without defending the president (they'll go neutral). 
10. GOP primaries states that had cancelled the primaries considering reopening them. 
11. More GOP candidates considering a primary run, if it isn't too late. 
12. Polls showing clear Dem victories in all battleground states that were leaning GOP, like OH, NC, FL, IA, TX, GA, AZ. 
13. At least some calls by GOP members calling for Trump's resignation in the Capitol building. 
14. Giuliani turning on Trump or distancing himself from him at least. 
15. Trump's family trying to subtlety exit the administration so they don't get potentially dragged down with him. 
16. Most obvious sign? Melania distances herself from Trump.

I could possibly add, keep an eye on Joe Manchin too. 

This is all end game stuff.  It's going to take a while to get there.

Of course, if you back someone who is on tape bragging about how many sexual assaults he committed...and then gives a ringing endorsement to a known repeat child predator for Senate...what would it even take to distance yourself at this point?

Wouldn't you just have to go to your grave insisting everyone else was wrong?

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Fun fact: If Trump were removed from office by the Senate, it's possible he could still run and be elected in 2020. 😄

The Senate would have to specifically say he couldn't run again to prevent that.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Fun fact: If Trump were removed from office by the Senate, it's possible he could still run and be elected in 2020. 😄

The Senate would have to specifically say he couldn't run again to prevent that.

Ha...that is amazing.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Ha...that is amazing.

Is it? It is how we end up with Trump being impeached yet still winning in 2020 with someone like Haley on his ticket and then even though he was impeached we have to do the whole process over again.

 

Clinton was already re-elected when he was impeached so there was no chance he could come back

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Remember that the Senate doesn't just decide to remove or not remove (and prevent from holding future office or not prevent from holding future office). It also holds the trial, which presumably will be where it will have to be shown that Trump did something rising to the level of high crimes or misdemeanors. That process (given current Senate composition) will be controlled to a large extent by Republicans.

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Fun fact: If Trump were removed from office by the Senate, it's possible he could still run and be elected in 2020. 😄

The Senate would have to specifically say he couldn't run again to prevent that.

But, if so many Republicans (at least in high office) no longer support him, couldn't they just NOT nominate him at the Republican National Convention and force him to run as an Independent?

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Just now, Patine said:

But, if so many Republicans no longer support him, couldn't they just NOT nominate him at the Republican National Convention and force him to run as an Independent?

Ya, if there were 20 Republican Senators voting to remove him from office, his hold on the RNC and Republican rank-and-file voters would also probably be seriously weakened.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

But, if so many Republicans (at least in high office) no longer support him, couldn't they just NOT nominate him at the Republican National Convention and force him to run as an Independent?

 

Just now, admin_270 said:

Ya, if there were 20 Republican Senators voting to remove him from office, his hold on the RNC and Republican rank-and-file voters would also probably be seriously weakened.

If they force Trump to run independent, then they're committing suicide. GOP would likely get 3rd place in the election. This did happen in 1912, but the situation in 2020 is very different. However, if I were a Never Trump GOP, I'd look forwarding to rebuilding the party from scratch or building a new party. 

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10 minutes ago, Patine said:

But, if so many Republicans (at least in high office) no longer support him, couldn't they just NOT nominate him at the Republican National Convention and force him to run as an Independent?

 

8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, if there were 20 Republican Senators voting to remove him from office, his hold on the RNC and Republican rank-and-file voters would also probably be seriously weakened.

Wasn't it weak to start with, and he won anyway?

The Republican voters chose him as their nominee.  There was discussion back in 2016 about how (or if) he should be stopped -- but it sure seems that nothing came of the conversation.

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3 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Wasn't it weak to start with, and he won anyway?

Ya, it might be that he would win a nomination even with 20 Republican Senators voting to remove him. But I think if 20 were to vote against him, it would go along with a reduction of support in the RNC and Republican voters relative to what there is now.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, it might be that he would win a nomination even with 20 Republican Senators voting to remove him. But I think if 20 were to vote against him, it would go along with a reduction of support in the RNC and Republican voters relative to what there is now.

They would just be "the swamp."

Don't get me wrong -- I want to believe!

But I honestly think that a significant part of the country is just so far gone that there's truly nothing that can really bring them back.

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10 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

 

Wasn't it weak to start with, and he won anyway?

The Republican voters chose him as their nominee.  There was discussion back in 2016 about how (or if) he should be stopped -- but it sure seems that nothing came of the conversation.

Of course, it's no secret that the two main U.S. Parties' Presidential Primary Nomination process is wonky, unrepresentative, deliberately winding, heavily dependent on donors (especially wealthy plutocrats) as well gatekeeping factors like controlled debate access, and, has been seen in several cases, including very arguably the 2016 Democratic cycle, heavily subject to manipulation by the party's national convention. It's a HIGHLY dubious statement to just up and say, "the party's voters chose the nominee."

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33 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

something rising to the level of high crimes or misdemeanors

Or bribery or treason.  I'd guess bribery is the best bet on the Ukraine stuff.

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35 minutes ago, Patine said:

Of course, it's no secret that the two main U.S. Parties' Presidential Primary Nomination process is wonky, unrepresentative, deliberately winding, heavily dependent on donors (especially wealthy plutocrats) as well gatekeeping factors like controlled debate access, and, has been seen in several cases, including very arguably the 2016 Democratic cycle, heavily subject to manipulation by the party's national convention. It's a HIGHLY dubious statement to just up and say, "the party's voters chose the nominee."

The gatekeepers did a spectacularly bad job keeping the gate, then.

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@pilight

My understanding is that what is required for impeachment and conviction is a matter of debate. 'High crimes and misdemeanors' is a vague class. Practically speaking, it seems what is required is what a majority of the House and then 2/3rds of the Senate say is required.

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At this point, my guess is the most likely outcome is House narrowly votes to impeach, Senate acquits on all charges. Therefore, Trump is cleared of wrongdoing by the Congress.

The only big question I have as of now is whether the Senators voting to remove will include any Republicans, and if so, whether there will be a majority ( > 50) voting to remove. If so, a claim of vindication by Trump will have a big asterisk next to it. To get this would require 4 Republican Senators voting to convict and no Democratic Senators voting to acquit.

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@pilight

My understanding is that what is required for impeachment and conviction is a matter of debate. 'High crimes and misdemeanors' is a vague class. Practically speaking, it seems what is required is what a majority of the House and then 2/3rds of the Senate say is required.

Fair, but keep in mind that the Chief Justice presides over the case.  So they will need to follow SOME semblance of law.

3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

At this point, my guess is the most likely outcome is House narrowly votes to impeach, Senate acquits on all charges. Therefore, Trump is cleared of wrongdoing by the Congress.

The only big question I have as of now is whether the Senators voting to remove will include any Republicans, and if so, whether there will be a majority ( > 50) voting to remove. If so, a claim of vindication by Trump will have a big asterisk next to it. To get this would require 4 Republican Senators voting to convict and no Democratic Senators voting to acquit.

Actually this handy dandy flowchart shows that even if the House impeaches, McConnell can just flat out refuse to have a trial.

If that's the case, I'd expect the most likely outcome to be exactly that.

Hopefully, McConnell and crew would face problems in their following re-election campaigns...but in some states, that simply would not happen.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/benking/confused-by-the-impeachment-process-this-flowchart-should

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At this point, my guess is impeachment is a mistake by Dems re 2020, even if Pelosi's hand was effectively forced by this. However, if highly damaging stuff emerges in the process of investigating, it could help Dems in 2020. Either way, very difficult to see how a Republican (Trump or Pence) isn't President until 2021.

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3 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

even if the House impeaches, McConnell can just flat out refuse to have a trial

Ya, who knows? I think he would have to make a pretty strong case that the impeachment charges are illegitimately founded (perhaps he would have some ground to do this given Pelosi seems to have based her beginning of an official impeachment inquiry on hearsay).

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25 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

The gatekeepers did a spectacularly bad job keeping the gate, then.

Why do you just assume they had "failed" from their perspective. It's the plutocratic oligarchy things. It's more real than you admit to. Donald Trump is ONE of the plutocrats, even if he was a political outsider. They probably didn't expect the out-of-the-blue trade war - but no one seemed to. And I remind you, most of the gatekeeping element is by plutocrats - the media corporations who host the debates, and the big donors. On the other side of things, Sanders threatened the plutocratic interests with his platform far more than Clinton did.

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