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vcczar

Ukraine Scandal Prediction

Ukraine Scandal Prediction  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you think Trump's Ukraine Scandal will reveal an impeachable offense?

  2. 2. If you were forced to bet all the money to your name, which outcome do you think is most likely to happen?

    • Trump will be impeached, convicted, and removed prior to election day.
    • Trump will be impeached, convicted, and removed after election day, during his lame duck.
      0
    • Trump will be impeached, convicted, and removed after election day, and sometime during his 2nd term.
      0
    • Trump will face conviction after he has left office.
    • Trump will be impeached, but he will be acquitted and stay in office.
    • Trump will resign before impeachment.
      0
    • Trump will resign after impeachment but before conviction or acquittal.
      0
    • Trump will resign after impeachment, even though he was acquitted.
      0
    • Trump will not be impeached.
    • Trump and Pence are removed/resign, Pelosi becomes President and named Hillary Clinton her VP, and then resigns so Clinton is president.
      0
  3. 3. If you had to bet all the money to your name, the Ukraine Scandal/Impeachment Effort will.....(click all that apply)

    • Help Trump win by a landslide victory in 2020.
      0
    • Will help Trump win the 2020 Election.
    • Will help Democrats win the 2020 Election.
    • Will help Democrats win by a landslide in the 2020 election.
    • Will make no difference in the 2020 election--toss up election
    • see Pres. Trump resign
    • see VP Pence resign
      0
    • see Sec of State Pompeo resign
    • see Giuliani fired
    • see several cabinet members and other administrative personnel resign or get fired
    • see Pelosi resign
      0
    • see Schiff resign
      0
    • see Biden drop out of the race (for something connected to Ukraine)
    • other
      0


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For question one, the transcript and just that one incident in question doesn't make it an impeachable offense, and it's a slippery slope because Biden himself hung aid over Ukraine's head before, so is that an impeachable offense too? I think it's worth investigating for both of them. Not sure impeachment itself though.

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9 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

For question one, the transcript and just that one incident in question doesn't make it an impeachable offense, and it's a slippery slope because Biden himself hung aid over Ukraine's head before, so is that an impeachable offense too? I think it's worth investigating for both of them. Not sure impeachment itself though.

Thanks, I worded it better. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Thanks, I worded it better. 

This changes my answer to a "possibly" for question one. If they do find an impeachable offense and actually fully act on and impeach him, I don't think it'll be related to Ukraine itself. Will be interesting to see what happens with the investigation(s)

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One key factor that I feel should be mentioned is that Trump and the people around him have no idea what they're doing or how to handle a situation like this.  I think they're already making a lot of unforced errors.  Never underestimate their inability to create a coherent narrative, Trump's increasingly unhinged ranting and raving, or the likelihood that several of these people will incriminate themselves before it's all over.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/27/republicans-giuliani-congress-trump-1517400

https://deadline.com/2019/09/president-donald-trump-tweetstorm-the-saturday-edition-41-1202747231/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/total-panic-shell-shocked-white-house-struggles-find-impeachment-footing-n1059251

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Special tip: If you want to actually bet money that Trump will be impeached buy shares or options calls on SQQQ (a leveraged inverse stock that goes up 3% whenever the S&P 500 goes down 1% and vice-versa). The stock market would essentially crash even if he isn't removed from office and you would get very, very nice gains if it actually did happen. In fact, i'm holding five shares of it right now.

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7 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Special tip: If you want to actually bet money that Trump will be impeached buy shares or options calls on SQQQ (a leveraged inverse stock that goes up 3% whenever the S&P 500 goes down 1% and vice-versa). The stock market would essentially crash even if he isn't removed from office and you would get very, very nice gains if it actually did happen. In fact, i'm holding five shares of it right now.

If Trump is gone, Pence is President.

The market isn’t going to crash over Pence.  I hate the guy, but it would probably go UP.

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29 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

If Trump is gone, Pence is President.

The market isn’t going to crash over Pence.  I hate the guy, but it would probably go UP.

Nah, the stock market is a huge drama queen. The S&P 500 dipped nearly 2% in a day (which doesn't sound like a lot but it really is) from Pelosi even bringing up the idea of impeachment. That coupled with Trump's ability to tank the market with a single tweet means If it goes through even just a little bit bears are gonna get a nice paycheck.

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15 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Nah, the stock market is a huge drama queen. The S&P 500 dipped nearly 2% in a day (which doesn't sound like a lot but it really is) from Pelosi even bringing up the idea of impeachment. That coupled with Trump's ability to tank the market with a single tweet means If it goes through even just a little bit bears are gonna get a nice paycheck.

That’s kind of my point.  The market trends up, but gets iffy moment to moment because of Trump’s endless instability.  

With Trump gone and Pence in, the threat that something could go horribly wrong tomorrow practically evaporates.  I would expect the S&P to soar.

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10 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Nah, the stock market is a huge drama queen. The S&P 500 dipped nearly 2% in a day (which doesn't sound like a lot but it really is) from Pelosi even bringing up the idea of impeachment. That coupled with Trump's ability to tank the market with a single tweet means If it goes through even just a little bit bears are gonna get a nice paycheck.

Another set of reasons why I say Capitalism, as praised and lauded in the Adam Smith mold is dead, and the economic system in place today, while superficially resembling the Capitalism of nostalgia, has most of the negative aspects (plus a bunch more), few of the truly positive ones, has led to less corporate competition, less successful new businesses outside of niche markets, far more blatant corruption of government by big business and their lobby group "front organizations," even in major First World Nations - ESPECIALLY the United States, a pushback of labour laws and employee empowerment slowly, but surely, back to Industrial Revolution standards, products and services are becoming more shoddy in quality, but often higher in price, and fiat currency, with no inherent or intrinsic value AT ALL and has no reliability, and the global economy now crashes or has a big crisis at least every decade, not to mention the almost Neo-Feudal aspect the big corporations have been able to assume. So, while the U.S. may never become a Socialist or Communist nation, it has also ceased to be a Capitalist nation - as Capitalism, in truth, is well and truly DEAD.

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4 minutes ago, Patine said:

Another set of reasons why I say Capitalism, as praised and lauded in the Adam Smith mold is dead, and the economic system in place today, while superficially resembling the Capitalism of nostalgia, has most of the negative aspects (plus a bunch more), few of the truly positive ones, has led to less corporate competition, less successful new businesses outside of niche markets, far more blatant corruption of government by big business and their lobby group "front organizations," even in major First World Nations - ESPECIALLY the United States, a pushback of labour laws and employee empowerment slowly, but surely, back to Industrial Revolution standards, products and services are becoming more shoddy in quality, but often higher in price, and fiat currency, with no inherent or intrinsic value AT ALL and has no reliability, and the global economy now crashes or has a big crisis at least every decade, not to mention the almost Neo-Feudal aspect the big corporations have been able to assume. So, while the U.S. may never become a Socialist or Communist nation, it has also ceased to be a Capitalist nation - as Capitalism, in truth, is well and truly DEAD.

I mean, Adam died 230 years ago.

It makes sense that we wouldn’t still be strictly following his guidance.

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16 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I mean, Adam died 230 years ago.

It makes sense that we wouldn’t still be strictly following his guidance.

But you obviously only skimmed my post again, and not read it, like it seems obvious you often do - or MUST do. I was saying the current economic system has no degenerated and gone so badly downhill in a broad, large-scale, long-term way, it can't legitimately use the same term or claim to still remain the great vaunted and superior economic system that Capitalism had been. And, it will quite likely lead the Western World to the same sort of catastrophic crash in the foreseeable future that Communism led the old East Bloc to.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

But you obviously only skimmed my post again, and not read it, like it seems obvious you often do - or MUST do. I was saying the current economic system has no degenerated and gone so badly downhill in a broad, large-scale, long-term way, it can't legitimately use the same term or claim to still remain the great vaunted and superior economic system that Capitalism had been. And, it will quite likely lead the Western World to the same sort of catastrophic crash in the foreseeable future that Communism led the old East Bloc to.

Yes, I’ve said before that I have trouble really reading your posts.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Yes, I’ve said before that I have trouble really reading your posts.

Well, I also stand staunchly by what I've said in the rest of this post, which SHOULD be easier than many to discern.

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