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vcczar

2020 Election Puzzle

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Here's a hypothetical for you all. Who wins Trump vs. Warren? Who wins Trump vs. Biden?: 

  • Let's say 73.9% of voters will vote on along party lines regardless of who the party nominees are. 
  • Let's say this 73.9% is roughly split in half: 37.5% Dem and 36.4% Rep as there are more registered Democrats. 
  • Let's say 26.1% of voters are voters that are liable to swing Red, Blue or 3rd Party, depending on the nominee.
  • Let's breakdown the 26.1% this way:
    • 5.3% are independent moderates, who may be fiscally moderate, but probably have a wide range on social issues; or may be social moderate and have a wide range on fiscal issues. 
    • 5.2% are independent only, and will likely vote 3rd party unless the nominee is anti-establishment and appeals to anti-establishment. 
    • 3.9% are non-ideological outsiders and are more likely to vote for if a candidate is inspiring, charismatic, or likable, but not necessarily all of these three. 
    • 2.9% are non-independent moderates that have generally consistently voted for one of the major parties but is now undecided on whether or not to vote for another party. 
    • 2.4% are completely undecided independent moderate that doesn't fit in well with any candidate or any party, but generally figures out who they'll vote for in the last moment. 
    • 1.9% are completely undecided independent non-moderate that that fits in the least with any candidate or party, but generally figures out who they'll vote for in the last moment. 

Now, considering Trump vs. Warren using the base that Trump starts with 36.4% and Warren starts with 37.5%, divide up these smaller percentages above to arrive at a popular vote for 2020?

After that, try it for Trump vs. Biden. 

Anyway, I think this is a fun puzzle that is kind is inspired from a FiveThirtyEight article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-moderate-middle-is-a-myth/

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