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Actinguy

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

The criteria for the next (October) debate has been long known.  Notably, Steyer recently qualified for that debate (his first), and Gabbard is currently just one poll away from qualifying as well (after missing September's debate).

But the DNC has now announced the criteria to qualify for the November debate.  While both the polling and fundraising measures have increased once again, they've only increased moderately (compared to the August to September leap that kicked half the team off the field).

Candidates must...

POLLING

* Receive 3% or more support in at least four national or single-state polls (single state for Iowa, NH, Nevada, or South Carolina).  Must be four different qualifying pollsters -- it can't be four polls from a single polling organization (unless it's for different geographical areas, such as one national poll and one Nevada poll).

OR

* Receive 5% in two single-state polls in Iowa, NH, Nevada, and/or South Carolina.  These CAN be from the same polling organization, even if they're both for the same state.

Either way, the polls must be published between September 13 and at least 7 days before the debate (although the debate date is not yet set).

AND

Need 165,000 unique donors, with 600 unique donors per state in at least 20 states. (This is not significantly higher than the previous cutoff, so many candidates have already surpassed it).


----

With these new criteria now known, here's the current standings:

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris ("The Top Five") all have enough donors, but are currently just one poll shy of qualifying.

Cory Booker is two polls away, but has not met the fundraising standard yet.  

Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, and Andrew Yang have all met the fundraising standard, but are three polls away.

Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, and Tom Steyer have all met the fundraising standard, but don't have a single poll yet.

The rest of the candidates have no polls AND have not met the fundraising requirement.

 

This is in the wrong forum, but I think that it's pretty significantly going to cut down the field. 

The next debates will almost certainly be:

1. Biden

2. Warren

3. Sanders

4. Buttigieg

5. Harris

6. Booker (85%)

I don't see any path forward for the rest of the candidates. Yang, Beto, and Klobuchar have maybe a 35% chance of making it each. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two made it, but definitely not all three. I wouldn't be surprised if none of them made it. 

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5 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

This is in the wrong forum, but I think that it's pretty significantly going to cut down the field. 

The next debates will almost certainly be:

1. Biden

2. Warren

3. Sanders

4. Buttigieg

5. Harris

6. Booker (85%)

I don't see any path forward for the rest of the candidates. Yang, Beto, and Klobuchar have maybe a 35% chance of making it each. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two made it, but definitely not all three. I wouldn't be surprised if none of them made it. 

Dang it, you're right.  I'll move it over to the right forum.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I call this "doing a Klobuchar". :D 

Not yet.  Her 8% in Iowa was from a poll not on the official approved list.  I believe she only has 3% from approved pollsters in Iowa, needs 5%.

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21 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

This is in the wrong forum, but I think that it's pretty significantly going to cut down the field. 

The next debates will almost certainly be:

1. Biden

2. Warren

3. Sanders

4. Buttigieg

5. Harris

6. Booker (85%)

I don't see any path forward for the rest of the candidates. Yang, Beto, and Klobuchar have maybe a 35% chance of making it each. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two made it, but definitely not all three. I wouldn't be surprised if none of them made it. 

Beto will make it.  He tends to poll at the 3%-4% mark, so his low score right now is just a reflection of how few polls there have been.  That will change over the next month and a half before the due date.  I think Booker will too -- they've been having a huge fundraising push lately, claiming he'll drop out in days if he can't meet his goal.

Klobuchar, Yang, and everyone else below that will probably be out...leaving us "the top five", Booker, and Beto.  I'd say that's a solid list.

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