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vcczar

21st Century Electoral Pattern: New Hampshire

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Here's NH (other battleground states are in the forum)

2000: D-46.8; R-48.1 [+1.3 R Margin]
2004: D-50.2; R-48.9 [+1.3 D Margin]
2008: D-54.4; R-44.7 [+9.3 D Margin]
2012: D-52.0; R-46.4 [+5.6 D Margin]
2016: D-47.6; R-47.3 [+0.3 D Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom Line: This state has tended to be reliably Blue, despite being a conservative state by New England standards. New England, for the first time, does not have a single Republican US Rep in the entire region. The state has become increasingly less Republican, despite often favoring moderate to liberal Republican governors. Susan Collins of Maine is in danger of being the last member of the GOP to represent New England inside of the entire capitol building. However, Trump came close to winning the state, outperforming Romney and McCain, and even Al Gore, in support. His margin of defeat was the narrowest of the 21st century. Hillary Clinton, despite winning, got a lower percentage of the voters than Bush got in defeat in 2004. Obama won the state in landslides. It seems likely that a Democrat more popular than Clinton (which is guaranteed to happen) will probably outperform Clinton, especially considering Trump has negative approval in the state. 
 
What are your predictions for the margin of victory/defeat in these matchups:
 
Biden vs. Trump
 
Warren vs. Trump

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Biden wins by around a percentage point (maybe slightly less).

Trump beats Warren by a similar margin as the Bush victory.

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Trump wins both by around 1 to 2 points. 

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I think Biden wins by 4 pts. 

Warren wins in her home region by only 1 pt. 

If Warren loses it's because she's forced to focus her final campaign weeks in WI, MI, and PA, and can't give NH attention. Trump's approval has fallen in NH and I think he only wins it if he's campaigning there while she isn't. However, it could be that Trump avoids it to focus on keeping WI, MI, and PA.

Maybe the best prognostication is to say, if it looks like Warren is leading Trump in MI and PA by 5 pts or more in the polls, and is about even in WI, then I think Warren also wins NH, since Trump will be on the defense in these places in the last week and she can give some focus to rural NH and alleviate any concerns they might have, at least enough to carry the state. If she doesn't, I think it's a toss up. Regardless, I don't think Trump is at an advantage in NH unless it gets positive favorability in this state. 

Trump is at negative 20 net approval in New Hampshire. @SilentLiberty @jvikings1 https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/    He's also in bad shape in WI, MI, PA, IA, VA. He'll probably hold on to TX, FL, NC, AZ, and OH, despite some of these viewing him negatively also. But against a favorable Democrat (i.e someone not unpopular like Clinton), he's certain to lose reelection. 

 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think Biden wins by 4 pts. 

Warren wins in her home region by only 1 pt. 

If Warren loses it's because she's forced to focus her final campaign weeks in WI, MI, and PA, and can't give NH attention. Trump's approval has fallen in NH and I think he only wins it if he's campaigning there while she isn't. However, it could be that Trump avoids it to focus on keeping WI, MI, and PA.

Maybe the best prognostication is to say, if it looks like Warren is leading Trump in MI and PA by 5 pts or more in the polls, and is about even in WI, then I think Warren also wins NH, since Trump will be on the defense in these places in the last week and she can give some focus to rural NH and alleviate any concerns they might have, at least enough to carry the state. If she doesn't, I think it's a toss up. Regardless, I don't think Trump is at an advantage in NH unless it gets positive favorability in this state. 

Trump is at negative 20 net approval in New Hampshire. @SilentLiberty @jvikings1 https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/    He's also in bad shape in WI, MI, PA, IA, VA. He'll probably hold on to TX, FL, NC, AZ, and OH, despite some of these viewing him negatively also. But against a favorable Democrat (i.e someone not unpopular like Clinton), he's certain to lose reelection. 

 

I don't tend to look too much into approval ratings.  Obama would have been in a bad position for re-election if you go based on approvals at this time.  The Trump factor also makes these not as reliable.  There are those who don't like Trump (because they don't view him as a good person) but will vote for him over the Democratic alternative.

Biden would make things interesting, but I like Trump's chances against the other plausible Democrats.

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Biden: D+7 (53-46)

Warren: R+1 (48-47)

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This is what the race is looking like if I use that Morning Consult Trump approval and take into account that Trump will get some of that disapproving vote, reluctantly. I looked at his margin of victory in these battleground states and subtracted his negative favorability from that. So a favorable Democrat (someone more popular than Hillary Clinton, which is guaranteed) could very well do this. In regards to Trump factor, I think he used that up in 2016. I don't think that factor exists anymore. He isn't the new thing or the change candidate now. You had a ton of regret-a-Trumps in the midterm that sort of attest to this fatigue and regret among independent voters. He's mostly down to his base + a few Never Democrats, that reluctantly support him. Independents will support Biden, while Warren would actually turn out more liberal voters to actually vote. Data shows that stay-at-home liberal voters hurt Clinton more than Russia or anything else. That is, registered voters that would have voted Democrat or not at all. To these voters, Clinton was unlikable, corrupt, or too moderate. They're likely to support Warren over Biden, which means votes in population centers will probably be higher. This would help in PA and MI, and somewhat in WI, although less helpful in NH and IA. I think if there's going to be a factor in 2020, it will probably be a Warren factor. She's already building up an excitement among some Democrats that Hillary Clinton never could. Her favorability among Democrats is now higher than Biden's and her unfavorability is now lower than Biden's, according to a post-debate poll presented by Nate Silver. She definitely isn't anything close to a Clinton clone, she's way more dangerous to Trump's reelection bid. That said, I do think Biden is the safest choice, but when does a non-incumbent win an election? It didn't with Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Dole,  McCain, Romney, or Clinton? It's almost always the change candidate -- Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bill Clinton ("New Democrat"), Bush II ("Compassionate Conservatism"), Obama, Trump. The exceptions are Bush I winning as a sitting VP, and Goldwater losing as a change candidate, among post-WWII elections. Biden would be in the Humphrey-Mondale-Dukakis tradition. Warren would be in the Reagan-Obama tradition. 

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