Jump to content
270soft Forum
Sign in to follow this  
vcczar

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Iowa

Recommended Posts

Here's IA (other battleground states are in the thread)

2000: D-48.4; R-48.2 [+0.2 D Margin]
2004: D-49.2; R-49.9 [+0.7 R Margin]
2008: D-53.9; R-44.4 [+9.5 D Margin]
2012: D-52.0; R-46.2 [+5.8 D Margin]
2016: D-41.7; R-51.2 [+9.5 R Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom line: Iowa might be the most unpredictable battleground state. After flip-flopping between parties, it went for Obama by a large margin, only to go for Trump by an equally large margin. No other battleground state saw such a swing. Obama and Trump won the state by equal margins; however, Obama won a larger percentage of the vote (53.9% vs 51.2%). Hillary Clinton's performance is the worst overall performance in this state in the 21st century.  Interestingly, Obama and Trump are the only candidates to get over 50% of the vote in this state. 
 
What is your prediction for the margins in a Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Warren matchup?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biden: R+4 (51-47)

Warren: R+12 (54-42)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Biden: R+4 (51-47)

Warren: R+12 (54-42)

You much overestimate Republican strength in Iowa. There is real anger here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Biden: R+4 (51-47)

Warren: R+12 (54-42)

Trump has negative approval in Iowa and has for over a year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

You much overestimate Republican strength in Iowa. There is real anger here.

My litmus was Kim Reynolds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Reagan04 said:

My litmus was Kim Reynolds

Not to mention Joni Ernst's strong polling numbers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Not to mention Joni Ernst's strong polling numbers

 

7 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

My litmus was Kim Reynolds

If ethanol won't back him, the state is lost. And it seems they're very, very angry at the abandonment of Big Ag in DC. Even Former Gov. Branstad sat him down and told him that the state was at risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...