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vcczar

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Minnesota

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Here's Minnesota (OH, PA, MI, WI, are in the forum already). I'm not doing the polls anymore--too time consuming. Please comment with on your predicted margins for 2020 below after reading this. Do one for Warren and one for Biden vs. Trump. 

2000: D-47.9; R-45.5 [+2.4 D Margin]
2004: D-51.1; R-47.6 [+3.5 D Margin]
2008: D-54.1; R-43.8 [+10.3 D Margin]
2012: D- 52.7; R-45.0 [+7.7 D Margin]
2016: D-46.1; R-44.6 [+1.5 D Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom line: Democrats have won this state every time in the 21st Century. Unpopular Hillary Clinton had the weakest margin of victory when she face the equally unpopular Trump. As the 2020 Democrat will be more favorable, I seriously doubt Trump can improve on this number. Trump scored only 44.6% of the vote, which is the lowest Republican support of the 21st century, except for McCain in 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican president since 1972. 

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21 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Here's Minnesota (OH, PA, MI, WI, are in the forum already). I'm not doing the polls anymore--too time consuming. Please comment with on your predicted margins for 2020 below after reading this. Do one for Warren and one for Biden vs. Trump. 

2000: D-47.9; R-45.5 [+2.4 D Margin]
2004: D-51.1; R-47.6 [+3.5 D Margin]
2008: D-54.1; R-43.8 [+10.3 D Margin]
2012: D- 52.7; R-45.0 [+7.7 D Margin]
2016: D-46.1; R-44.6 [+1.5 D Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom line: Democrats have won this state every time in the 21st Century. Unpopular Hillary Clinton had the weakest margin of victory when she face the equally unpopular Trump. As the 2020 Democrat will be more favorable, I seriously doubt Trump can improve on this number. Trump scored only 44.6% of the vote, which is the lowest Republican support of the 21st century, except for McCain in 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican president since 1972. 

Biden vs. Trump: Dems win by 3 pts. 

Warren vs. Trump: Dems win by 3.5 pts. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Here's Minnesota (OH, PA, MI, WI, are in the forum already). I'm not doing the polls anymore--too time consuming. Please comment with on your predicted margins for 2020 below after reading this. Do one for Warren and one for Biden vs. Trump. 

2000: D-47.9; R-45.5 [+2.4 D Margin]
2004: D-51.1; R-47.6 [+3.5 D Margin]
2008: D-54.1; R-43.8 [+10.3 D Margin]
2012: D- 52.7; R-45.0 [+7.7 D Margin]
2016: D-46.1; R-44.6 [+1.5 D Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom line: Democrats have won this state every time in the 21st Century. Unpopular Hillary Clinton had the weakest margin of victory when she face the equally unpopular Trump. As the 2020 Democrat will be more favorable, I seriously doubt Trump can improve on this number. Trump scored only 44.6% of the vote, which is the lowest Republican support of the 21st century, except for McCain in 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican president since 1972. 

Biden: Dems win by about 3

Warren: Trump wins by about 2

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Biden v. Trump: D+8 (52-44)

Trump v. Warren: R+1 (47-46)

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Biden v. Trump - D+4 (51-47)

Warren v. Trump - D+5 (52-47)

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Biden and Warren both win. Minnesota is sometimes close, but that's all it ever seems to be - close. They even re-elected a Democratic Governor in 2014, and the GOP have yet to actually win it or even get above about 48% any time recently. My guess is that's their ceiling there as opposed to a bedrock from which to build.

That said, MN and NH are probably the Hillary states most likely to flip given the lack of other choices and their relatively small minority populations. Nevada is on a light-blue streak lately, and I don't think the GOP will manage to take more than 1 of Maine's 4 electoral votes.

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5 hours ago, pilight said:

Only DC has a longer run of Democrat wins

 

On ‎9‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 11:15 AM, vcczar said:

Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican president since 1972. 

Actually, Washington State last had a Republican Governor in 1956, I think. Although, while @vcczar is correct on Minnesota's streak of non-Republican Governors going back to 1972, @pilight is not accurate to conflate it to solid Democratic Governors statistically, because of Jesse Ventura's two terms in office from 1998-2006.

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Just now, Patine said:

 

Actually, Washington State last had a Republican Governor in 1956, I think. Although, while @vcczar is correct on Minnesota's streak of non-Republican Governors going back to 1972, @pilight is not accurate to conflate it to solid Democratic Governors statistically, because of Jesse Ventura's two terms in office from 1998-2006.

I'm talking about presidential elections, not governors. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I'm talking about presidential elections, not governors. 

Oh, sorry. I misread that.

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Just now, Patine said:

 

Actually, Washington State last had a Republican Governor in 1956, I think. Although, while @vcczar is correct on Minnesota's streak of non-Republican Governors going back to 1972, @pilight is not accurate to conflate it to solid Democratic Governors statistically, because of Jesse Ventura's two terms in office from 1998-2006.

If you actually read vcczar's post, you'll see that he's talking about presidential elections, wherein Minnesota has gone Democratic 11 times in a row.

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