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vcczar

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Wisconsin

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Wisconsin  

12 members have voted

  1. 1. Please read my first post first, then answer this: What is your prediction for WI in 2020 if Biden or Warren is the nominee? Pick one for Biden and one for Warren (comment below) unless they're the same answer.

    • Democrats will win by the largest margin of the 21st century: 14.0 pts or higher
      0
    • Democrats will win by about the margin Obama won with in 2008: 13.9 pts.
      0
    • Democrats will win by about the margin Obama won with in 2012: 6.9 pts.
    • Democrats will win by about the margin of victories of Kerry and Gore: 0.4 pts and 0.2 pts.
    • Democrats will win by a smaller margin than 0.2 pts.
    • Republicans will win by a smaller margin than Trump's 0.7 pt victory in 2016.
    • Republicans will win by about the margin of victory Trump won with in 2016: 0.7 pts.
    • Republicans will win by a margin larger than Trump's minimal 2016 victory: 0.8 pts or higher.
    • Republicans will win by the largest margin of the 21st century: 14.0 pts or higher.
      0


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Here's Wisconsin (check the forum for PA, and MI). 

2000: D- 47.8; R-47.6 [+0.2 D Margin]
2004: D- 49.7; R-49.3 [+0.4 D Margin]
2008: D- 56.2; R- 42.3 [+13.9 D Margin]
2012: D- 52.8; R- 45.9 [+6.9 D Margin]
2016: D- 46.5; R- 47.2 [+0.7 R Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom Line: The state has been reliably blue until Trump's narrow victory against an equally unpopular Hillary Clinton. Despite the narrowness of Trump's victory, it was a slightly larger margin than victories by Gore and Kerry. Obama is the only 21st century president to win convincing victories, which he did twice. While Trump won the state in 2016, he gained a few percentage of votes than Bush got in both of his defeats. Clinton had the worst performance for Democrats in regards to vote %; however, she outperformed McCain and Romney. Could Trump win this generally reliably blue state twice?

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I think I can see a universe where Trump wins just WI but lose MI and PA. Wisconsin has always seemed like the most conservative leaning out of the 3 swing states of the midwest.

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21 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I think I can see a universe where Trump wins just WI but lose MI and PA. Wisconsin has always seemed like the most conservative leaning out of the 3 swing states of the midwest.

Agreed, especiAlly because Trump won WI without as much support as Romney or Bush in the traditionally rock-ribbed Republican Milwaukee suburbs. Even if he loses a bit of the blue collar vote that won the day for him, nominating Warren is a surefire way to make sure he gets Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha county margins back up to and perhaps beyond par.

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30 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Agreed, especiAlly because Trump won WI without as much support as Romney or Bush in the traditionally rock-ribbed Republican Milwaukee suburbs. Even if he loses a bit of the blue collar vote that won the day for him, nominating Warren is a surefire way to make sure he gets Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha county margins back up to and perhaps beyond par.

 

53 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

I think I can see a universe where Trump wins just WI but lose MI and PA. Wisconsin has always seemed like the most conservative leaning out of the 3 swing states of the midwest.

Yeah, WI is the only one of these three states I'm worried about, unless the candidate is Biden. I'm fairly confident any Dem will win back PA and MI, considering the massively unpopular Clinton almost won those states. I think Warren could win WI. She polls there well among Democrats, much better than Clinton was polling against Sanders. The problem with Clinton in WI is that she pretty much ignored it and still lost by only 0.7. Warren is more liked in WI than Clinton. She's not going to ignore WI. She's got higher favorability than Clinton ever had. Wisconsin has a very strong progressive culture among it's left-leaning voters. Many of these people did not come out for Clinton. They will come out for Warren. I seriously doubt that many people that voted for Clinton in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020 in WI. As Warren will campaign in WI and generate more turnout among progressives, especially young progressives, and is unlikely to lose Clinton voters, she should exceed Clinton's performance, making this state much more likely to flip. That said, I think Biden makes the state certainly Blue, while Warren makes it likely Blue. 

I think if Trump can beat Warren in WI, it's only because he generates turnout among conservatives who did not vote for either Trump or Clinton in 2016, and any conservatives that just reached voting age. He's not going to convert Clinton voters, even if the candidate is Warren. 

Another factor is 3rd parties. I think both 3rd parties lose support because Clinton isn't a candidate and because Trump has less interparty discard (despite it still being there). Warren is more likely to take 3rd party voters from the Green Party than Biden is. Trump will earn back some of the Libertarian votes, I think. Warren and Biden would probably win back the 1/3 or 1/4 of Johnson/Weld supporters who were actually Democrats. 

In regards to @Reagan04's analyses in many Biden or Warren matchups, is that I don't think he considers turnout among those left of center-left (the majority of voters who would vote Democrat but are not always reliable voters). These are the voters, who in large numbers, stayed home or protest voted because Clinton was the nominee. They're also not happy with a "moderate" like Joe Biden (Biden is actually probably left of Obama now, just as Clinton was actually left of Obama in 2016).  What I'm saying is this:

  • There are the reliable party voters, those that will vote for the party nominee, whomever it may be. This is probably the majority group for both parties. These voters are guaranteed. They are not populist and would prefer Biden to Warren, but will vote for Warren as they voted for Clinton. They might not vote for Sanders because he isn't a real Democrat. Many of these voters did not vote for Trump in 2016 because he was not a real Republican. This will change now. 
  • The next group is the base. While called the base, this group is probably only as large or less large than the reliable party voters. These are the voters that are the most energetic, often the most angry, the voters most likely to seek change candidates, and the group that is most often emphasized by the media. These are also the voters that candidates try to appeal to because they are less reliable to vote among the party voters if their ideals are not fulfilled. Trump did as well as he did because he caters directly to this group. Clinton could not appeal to this group, thought many voter for her still. Biden would excel Clinton in getting this vote, but Warren would entirely lock it up. This group is often more populist than the guaranteed voters. 
  • The next largest group is probably the independents and party centrists. These are voters with even less party loyalty, they focus primarily on one or two major issues or values that effect them individually. They are inconsistent voters, and are often populist. Biden would excel with the centrists, but Warren could actually do better among the more populist independents. Trump did extremely well here against the equally unpopular Clinton. As Warren is really only unpopular among conservatives, she will exceed Clinton here mostly by virtue of not being Hillary Clinton, rather than because of policy.
  • The next group are the more anarchic populist voters. Those that don't vote often unless the voter is an outsider trying to "drain the swamp." These are the 2016 Bernie or Bust voters and many of the 2016 Trump voters. These voters are appealed more by personality and outsider status. They like a good chaos candidate. Trump locked up this vote. Clinton got none of this vote. Biden is unlikely to get any of this vote. Sanders and Gabbard would lock this vote up, but Warren could get some of this vote. 

As a Democratic voter in 2020, I am most worried about group #1 now accepting Trump as a Republican. If Trump wins it's because of this group. 

As a Democratic voter in 2020, I would feel more optimistic about Warren than Biden in generating turnout in group 2. While group 1 is larger and liked Biden more, they will vote for Warren or any other Democrat, except for maybe non-Democratic Party member Sanders. I think Warren would gain more voters locking down group 2, than Trump would gain by collecting the few group 1 Republicans that wouldn't vote for him. That is, I think more left-leaning group 2 people did not vote for Clinton than there were right-leaning group 1 people that didn't vote for Trump. And, obviously, Group 2 comes out in support for Warren in a way they didn't support Clinton. 

As a Democratic voter in 2020, I am uncertain with Warren's chances with this group. With Biden, I wouldn't have a worry. However, I feel somewhat optimistic that independent populists (that don't fit the anarchic voters of group 4) would prefer the Warren to Clinton, who was zero % populist. Warren is pretty much a female Robert La Follette and fits the left-leaning Wisconsin voter quite well. Biden fits the Wisconsin independent voter better, however. The more I think about this, the more I think Warren might have an equal chance to Biden with this group for different reasons. While Biden polls better than Warren in WI and vs. Trump, Biden has 95% name recognition, Trump has 100% name recognition. Warren has only 85% name recognition (based off recent poll). Considering Warren is at Biden's heals, it seems Warren will be more popular than Biden in WI, and she should poll higher than Trump once she gets her name recognition to about 95%. 

As a Democratic voter in 2020, I feel a lot better with Warren over Biden in getting the anarchic populist voters. Trump will likely keep his turnout high among this group, but with Warren he's going to face someone that also takes some of these voters, unlike Clinton who ignored them. If Sanders beat Trump it's because he narrowly won by locking up this group and stealing some of Trump's chaos voters. Warren will do well in this group's change voters, but not those that seek candidates primarily on personality (Trump, Bernie, Tulsi). 

I used to be skeptical of Warren's chances but I grow more confident that she will churn out voters over time. While she won't do well among independents as Biden would do, she will bring out larger voters among left-leaning voters who did not vote. This group is much likely larger than the group that would consider switching from Trump to Biden or Trump to Warren.  Clinton only won about 39% of independents and she was a "moderate" like Biden. Certainly, Warren, who is much more favorable than Clinton, can exceed 39% in Independents. Warren would probably win by just increasing this by 2%. 

I am yet to see any data as of Sept 15, 2019 that makes me think Trump has better chances of beating Biden or Warren in 2020. He's struggling to tie them despite a supposed strong economy. He's polling worse than an open socialist in some states---someone much more likely to lose centrists and non-anarchic independents  than Warren. 

That said, it is in the realm of possibility that Trump could win these three states back, so I'm open to that possibility. I wouldn't even be shocked if it happened, but I would be surprised. I think the chances that Democrats take all three of these states is higher than Trump winning even one of them again. If Trump does win one of them back, it will be Wisconsin. 

To show I'm not just looking into rose colored glasses for Dems in 2020. I think there's no chance Democrats can win the battleground states AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC, OH, and IA. I think Trump has a better shot at winning NV and VA than many thing he does. If I gambled, and had disposable cash, I'd put money on Biden or Warren beating Trump in WI, MI, and PA. Trump would have to win by flipping NV and/or VA in an upset victory. 

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Correction Clinton won only 37.8% of independents and not 39%

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On 9/15/2019 at 11:38 AM, Reagan04 said:

Agreed, especiAlly because Trump won WI without as much support as Romney or Bush in the traditionally rock-ribbed Republican Milwaukee suburbs. Even if he loses a bit of the blue collar vote that won the day for him, nominating Warren is a surefire way to make sure he gets Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha county margins back up to and perhaps beyond par.

@vcczar

 

I agree since Wisconsin two blue cities (Madison and Milwaukee) cannot make up for the suburban WOW counties. MI atleast has Ann Arbor, and Detroit is far bigger than Milwaukee. I'd be shocked if a Democrat besides Biden wins Wisconsin. 

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