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21st Century Electoral Pattern: Michigan

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Michigan  

10 members have voted

  1. 1. Please read my first post first, then answer this: What is your prediction for MI in 2020 if Biden or Warren is the nominee? Pick one for Biden and one for Warren (comment below) unless they're the same answer.

    • The Democrat will win this state by the largest margin of the 21st Century: 16.5 pts or higher
      0
    • The Democrats will win in this state by a margin similar to Obama's victory in 2008: 16.4 pts
      0
    • The Democrats will win in this state by a margin similar to Obama's victory in 2012: 9.5 pts
    • The Democrats will win in this state by a margin similar to Gore's victory in 2000: 5.1 pts
    • The Democrats will win in this state by a margin similar to Kerry's victory in 2004: 3.4 pts
    • The Democrats will win in this state by their smallest margin in the 21st century: 3.3 pts or less
    • The Republicans will win this state by a margin similar to Trump's victory in 2016: 0.2 pts
    • The Republicans will win this state by a margin a more convincing margin, but not the largest margin: over 0.2 pts but less than 16.4 pts
    • The Republicans will win this state by a margin exceeding Obama's 21st century record breaking victory: 16.5 pts or higher
      0


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Now on to Michigan (See the forum for PA's thread)! 

MI
2000: D- 51.3; R- 46.2 [+5.1 D Margin]
2004: D- 51.2; R- 47.8 [+3.4 D Margin]
2008: D-57.3; R- 40.9 [+16.4 D Margin]
2012: D-54.2; R- 44.7 [+9.5 D Margin]
2016: D-47.3; R- 47.5 [+0.2 R Margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom line: Like PA, Trump is both the only Republican to win Michigan in the 21st century, and  he is also the president to win it by the smallest margin. In all other elections, Democratic victory in this state has been convincing, especially in 2008. Trump's support in the state was actually less than Bush's support in the state in 2004, despite Trump having won the state. Unpopular Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat to fail to get 50% or more of the vote in this state when she lost to the equally unpopular Trump. Can Trump win a generally reliably blue state twice?  

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Biden wins by a similar amount to Gore.

Trump beats Warren by about 2 to 4 points. 

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