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vcczar

Warren and O'Rourke May Have Won the 3rd Debate

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Nate Silver analyzed the 3rd debate already:  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-september-poll/

I'll cut through the clutter and show you who decreased their unfavorability and who gained in favorability. Candidates are in order of net gain:

  • O'Rourke +8.6% [1% less unfavorable. 7.6% more favorable.]
  • Warren +7.5% [0.9% less unfavorable. 6.6% more favorable.] *Now has a higher total favorability than Biden and Sanders and the lowest unfavorability of both of them*
  • Klobuchar +5.8% [2.5% more unfavorable. 8.3% more favorable.] *Biggest gain in favorability, but also has the highest "no opinion" gap with about 50% no opinion*
  • Buttigieg +5.6% [1.5% more unfavorable. 7.1% more favorable.] *Has the lowest unfavorability of any of the top 10 candidates, but is fifth in favorability*
  • Booker +5.5% [1.7% more unfavorable. 7.2% more favorable.]
  • Harris +2.8% [1.2% more unfavorable. 4% more favorable.]
  • Yang +1.6% [4.8% more unfavorable. 7.4% more favorable.]
  • Biden -0.2% [1.1% more unfavorable. 0.9% more favorable.] *Is now second in highest favorability and second in highest unfavorability*
  • Sanders -0.3% [1.1% more unfavorable. 0.8% more favorable.] *Now has the highest unfavorability of any of the top 10 candidates*
  • Castro -6.8%  [8.9% more unfavorable. 2.1% more favorable.] *Biggest gain in unfavorability*

Looking at the favorability graph, Warren seems to be in the best place. Only Buttigieg is less unfavorable, and she's the most favorable. Unlike Biden and Sanders, of which only 5% have no opinion. There are 15% with no opinion for Warren, which means she could theoretically become 5 to 10 pts more favorable than Biden or Sanders by the time we get to Iowa. 

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That's an interesting article - especially like the "Share of respondents who are considering voting for each candidate" graph.

debate_support.jpg.34403e4752d00d2e5f7423c4b403e538.jpg

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The other candidates piled goodness on Beto because they no longer see him as a threat and want his goodwill/support in the future.

The other candidates avoided fighting Warren because they first want to break the large number of voters stuck to Biden and Sanders.

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9 hours ago, Jayavarman said:

The other candidates piled goodness on Beto because they no longer see him as a threat and want his goodwill/support in the future.

The other candidates avoided fighting Warren because they first want to break the large number of voters stuck to Biden and Sanders.

Agreed on both points.  There is also the point that praising Beto is a way of expressing sympathy for the mass shooting in Texas, and Texas is worth a lot of delegates early in the primaries.

Most candidates were focused on either breaking Biden or auditioning to be his VP.

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We live in a clown world that O'Rourke is allowed to run for office. He literally drove a car intoxicated through oncoming traffic, hitting another car, and fled the scene and only had to go to jail for one night because his dad is a judge. But then again we have a crazy mentally-defunct Communist, a pedophile, a dumbass who calls himself 'Spartacus', and an ugly woman who lied about her heritage to get into college so it doesn't surprise me.

Oh yeah, we also have a radical Islamic terrorist serving in the Congress so what do I know?

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2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

We live in a clown world that O'Rourke is allowed to run for office. He literally drove a car intoxicated through oncoming traffic, hitting another car, and fled the scene and only had to go to jail for one night because his dad is a judge.

The thing that strikes me most about O'Rourke is that he's supposed to be likable, and not just likable but it's suppose to be natural. He's not likable and it's not natural. He keeps saying more and more outlandish things to get the spotlight on him. I don't think he wants to be President for the policy, he wants to be President for the press, for the glitz, the glamour, the celebrity factor. He just doesn't have the charisma imo. He'd be better at being a social media influencer, which is what he really wants anyway. 

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Just now, SilentLiberty said:

The thing that strikes me most about O'Rourke is that he's supposed to be likable, and not just likable but it's suppose to be natural. He's not likable and it's not natural. He keeps saying more and more outlandish things to get the spotlight on him. I don't think he wants to be President for the policy, he wants to be President for the press, for the glitz, the glamour, the celebrity factor. He just doesn't have the charisma imo. He'd be better at being a social media influencer, which is what he really wants anyway. 

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/24/beto-orourke-tried-flee-scene-1998-dwi-crash-officers-say/

Also not looked at often, the murder fantasy that he wrote while he was 15: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/15/orourke-not-proud-writing-1223903

“As I neared the young ones, I put all my weight on my right foot, keeping the accelerator pedal on the floor until I heard the crashing of the two children on the hood, and then the sharp cry of pain from one of the two. I was so fascinated for a moment, that when after I had stopped my vehicle, I just sat in a daze, sweet visions filling my head.”

I used to think Cory Booker was the sociopath in this election, with his crazy eyes and lack of personality, but now I know who it really is.

Trump doesn't look so bad now.

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6 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/24/beto-orourke-tried-flee-scene-1998-dwi-crash-officers-say/

Also not looked at often, the murder fantasy that he wrote while he was 15: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/15/orourke-not-proud-writing-1223903

“As I neared the young ones, I put all my weight on my right foot, keeping the accelerator pedal on the floor until I heard the crashing of the two children on the hood, and then the sharp cry of pain from one of the two. I was so fascinated for a moment, that when after I had stopped my vehicle, I just sat in a daze, sweet visions filling my head.”

I used to think Cory Booker was the sociopath in this election, with his crazy eyes and lack of personality, but now I know who it really is.

Trump doesn't look so bad now.

 

5 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

HELL YES WE'LL TAKE YOUR CAR

Yeah I remember reading about that story he wrote. Essentially if there is a D next to your name and your not Al Franken or John Edwards people tend to just gloss over your mistakes. Or at least that's how my dad has always talked about, but he believes the R's always get dogged on "unfairly"

Really, and I hate to say this, but Trump looks as good or  very close to equal to all of the Democrats who were on that stage the other night. Sanders and Warren seem to be the only ones with a real constant ideology, and aren't just saying things to get elected(even though one could argue that is the ideology in and of itself). Everyone else is just either gimmicky, saying what they think whats to be heard, or seemingly melting from the pressure.

I know the DNC needs to have these debates, and they need to figure out who their nominee is, but I don't think these debates are helping them in the general, and I don't think having such a long process is going to help them either. 

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37 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

We live in a clown world that O'Rourke is allowed to run for office. He literally drove a car intoxicated through oncoming traffic, hitting another car, and fled the scene and only had to go to jail for one night because his dad is a judge. But then again we have a crazy mentally-defunct Communist, a pedophile, a dumbass who calls himself 'Spartacus', and an ugly woman who lied about her heritage to get into college so it doesn't surprise me.

Oh yeah, we also have a radical Islamic terrorist serving in the Congress so what do I know?

A pedophile? You mean Trumpy and Bill Clinton? Also I love how you can't attack their policies. 

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For me this debate really solidified Biden as someone that I can latch onto and Klobuchar as not being half bad either. Biden finally broke out this debate and being flanked by frick and frack probably helped him.

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

We live in a clown world that O'Rourke is allowed to run for office. He literally drove a car intoxicated through oncoming traffic, hitting another car, and fled the scene and only had to go to jail for one night because his dad is a judge. But then again we have a crazy mentally-defunct Communist, a pedophile, a dumbass who calls himself 'Spartacus', and an ugly woman who lied about her heritage to get into college so it doesn't surprise me.

Oh yeah, we also have a radical Islamic terrorist serving in the Congress so what do I know?

Have you ever looked at a list of how many people in Congress have committed crimes, felonies, misdemeanors, etc? It's quite shocking. 

This is a chart that includes a range of ethics-based issues with congress: https://www.govtrack.us/misconduct

I can't find it, but around 2004 there was a list of all the Congress people that had marks on their police records, and divided it up. It made it look like it would be safer walking in Compton or Camden at night than walking through the halls of Congress. However, the link above should show that we have a huge problem with the type of people we elect. O'Rourke is a small fry in misconduct. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Have you ever looked at a list of how many people in Congress have committed crimes, felonies, misdemeanors, etc? It's quite shocking. 

This is a chart that includes a range of ethics-based issues with congress: https://www.govtrack.us/misconduct

I can't find it, but around 2004 there was a list of all the Congress people that had marks on their police records, and divided it up. It made it look like it would be safer walking in Compton or Camden at night than walking through the halls of Congress. However, the link above should show that we have a huge problem with the type of people we elect. O'Rourke is a small fry in misconduct. 

You’re wasting your time. Anybody who thinks any of the major candidates are a communist or that there’s an Islamic terrorist in Congress is a brain-dead idiot beyond salvation. One of his main attacks is that a woman is ugly… 

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6 minutes ago, jnewt said:

You’re wasting your time. Anybody who thinks any of the major candidates are a communist or that there’s an Islamic terrorist in Congress is a brain-dead idiot beyond salvation. One of his main attacks is that a woman is ugly… 

Don't worry. I'm well aware of his mental deficiencies. I posted that link partially for others to read as well. 

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3 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

Sanders and Warren seem to be the only ones with a real constant ideology, and aren't just saying things to get elected(even though one could argue that is the ideology in and of itself). Everyone else is just either gimmicky, saying what they think whats to be heard, or seemingly melting from the pressure.

I disagree on Warren. She certainly seems to be saying exactly what progressives want to hear. 

She voted for a military budget higher than the one President Trump requested. Before running for President, she waffled on Medicare for All. She voted for the Hyde Amendment but now is against it in order to appeal to progressives. She accepted money from big donors during her Senate election (and will accept “dark money” - her words - during the general election if she’s the nominee) despite refusing to accept money from big donors in the 2020 primary in another attempt to appease to progressives. She has some major flaws and in order to compensate for them she’s been saying exactly what progressives want to hear. I think if she gets elected President she wouldn’t be nearly as progressive as she has been as a candidate. She’d likely be similar to President Obama, especially when it comes to bombing brown children. 

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1 minute ago, jnewt said:

I disagree on Warren. She certainly seems to be saying exactly what progressives want to hear. 

She voted for a military budget higher than the one President Trump requested. Before running for President, she waffled on Medicare for All. She voted for the Hyde Amendment but now is against it in order to appeal to progressives. She accepted money from big donors during her Senate election (and will accept “dark money” - her words - during the general election if she’s the nominee) despite refusing to accept money from big donors in another attempt to appease to progressives. She has some major flaws and in order to compensate for them she’s been saying exactly what progressives want to hear. I think if she gets elected President she wouldn’t be nearly as progressive as she has been as a candidate. She’d likely be similar to President Obama, especially when it comes to bombing brown children. 

That is disappointing to hear, even as someone who isn't a progressive. That'd mean basically Sanders is the only honest, and I use that term very loosely, about what he's preaching.

It's a shame that the country certainly has a knack for biffing it with nominations for elections and elections themselves, regardless of the level.

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3 minutes ago, jnewt said:

I disagree on Warren. She certainly seems to be saying exactly what progressives want to hear. 

She voted for a military budget higher than the one President Trump requested. Before running for President, she waffled on Medicare for All. She voted for the Hyde Amendment but now is against it in order to appeal to progressives. She accepted money from big donors during her Senate election (and will accept “dark money” - her words - during the general election if she’s the nominee) despite refusing to accept money from big donors in the 2020 primary in another attempt to appease to progressives. She has some major flaws and in order to compensate for them she’s been saying exactly what progressives want to hear. I think if she gets elected President she wouldn’t be nearly as progressive as she has been as a candidate. She’d likely be similar to President Obama, especially when it comes to bombing brown children. 

In defense of people who have changed their ideologies over time, FDR was a limited government, low tax, nominee in 1932 and then became a progressive. Likewise, JFK ran as a moderate and laid the foundation for LBJ's Great Society, Civil Rights, Voting Rights programs (also set the stage for Vietnam though). Lincoln ran as a moderate and then expanded government permanently and set the foundation for the abolition, citizenship, and voting rights of blacks. LBJ obviously shifted, who would have thought he would have endorsed JFK's unfinished goals? 

On the other side, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, and more recently, Obama, became more moderate than advertised. Barry Goldwater moderated before his death. 

Reagan became more Conservative between his 40s and 60s. He has supported the New Deal. As president, he was more moderate than he had advertised himself. Carter became more progressive after he left the presidency. 

I think Warren's shift, just like Carter and Reagan's shifts, is genuine. Part of that might have been the move from Oklahoma to Massachusetts, and then getting to know that culture and those enlightened people. 

One can say I've shifted. I stupidly voted for Bush in my first election (2000). However, I didn't keep up with current affairs, so I can plead the ignorance of youth. However, if I ran for office, I'm sure that vote would be held against me as I'd appeal to progressives. I've voted Bush, Kerry (Kucinich in primaries), Obama, Obama, Clinton (Sanders in primaries), and I'll vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is (Sanders or Warren in primary). 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Carter became more progressive after he left the presidency. 

It strikes me, from what I remember from the '90's, that Bill Clinton and Al Gore become a lot more Progressive, especially with their NGO's and such, after being President and Vice-President, respectively, than they were in those positions.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

It strikes me, from what I remember from the '90's, that Bill Clinton and Al Gore become a lot more Progressive, especially with their NGO's and such, after being President and Vice-President, respectively, than they were in those positions.

Clinton did in areas (like healthcare) but he was about as moderate as a Democratic president can get post-FDR. Al Gore didn't become liberal until after his failed 2000 bid. By 2004, he was a surging towards someone that you'd think the Green Party would endorse. 

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48 minutes ago, jnewt said:

You’re wasting your time. Anybody who thinks any of the major candidates are a communist or that there’s an Islamic terrorist in Congress is a brain-dead idiot beyond salvation. One of his main attacks is that a woman is ugly… 

Bernie is an economically illiterate retard who wants to tax all classes into poverty and put taxes on every individual trade of stocks.

Omar's first act was to lessen sentences on people who attempted running away to join ISIS.

A President shouldn't be ugly. Which is why I love surfer mommy ❤❤

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7 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Bernie is an economically illiterate retard who wants to tax all classes into poverty and put taxes on every individual trade of stocks.

Omar's first act was to lessen sentences on people who attempted running away to join ISIS.

A President shouldn't be ugly. Which is why I love surfer mommy ❤❤

Sanders has more knowledge on economics in the tip of his pinkie finger than you have in your entire body. I’d be willing to say that about virtually every single member of Congress, even the ones I completely disagree with. 

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1 hour ago, jnewt said:

Sanders has more knowledge on economics in the tip of his pinkie finger than you have in your entire body. I’d be willing to say that about virtually every single member of Congress, even the ones I completely disagree with. 

He never earned a real paycheck until his 40s so I highly doubt that.

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3 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

He never earned a real paycheck until his 40s so I highly doubt that.

I think you’re one of the dumbest people I’ve ever encountered on the internet, but if you actually believe that (which I doubt you do, I realize somebody acting this stupid is most likely a troll), then you’re dumber than I thought. Sanders held plenty of jobs before he turned 40, not to mention the fact that he’s dealt with economic issues as a politician for decades and got a degree related to economics from an Ivy League-caliber institution. 

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28 minutes ago, jnewt said:

I think you’re one of the dumbest people I’ve ever encountered on the internet, but if you actually believe that (which I doubt you do, I realize somebody acting this stupid is most likely a troll), then you’re dumber than I thought. Sanders held plenty of jobs before he turned 40, not to mention the fact that he’s dealt with economic issues as a politician for decades and got a degree related to economics from an Ivy League-caliber institution. 

I'd advise you to put him on your ignore list like I finally have gotten around to a few days ago. Engaging him will only get your blood pressure up. You, and I, cannot fix willful stupidity and obnoxiousness that ingrained.

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