Jump to content
270soft Forum
vcczar

21st Century Electoral Pattern: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania in 2020  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. Please read my first post first, then answer this: What is your prediction for PA in 2020 if Biden or Warren is the nominee? Pick one for Biden and one for Warren (comment below) unless they're the same answer.

    • Democrats win by the largest margin in the 21st century---an 10.4 pt margin or higher.
      0
    • Democrats win by about the margin that Obama defeated McCain by -- 10.3 pts
    • Democrats win by about the margin that Obama defeated Romney by -- 5.4 pts
    • Democrats win by about the margin that Gore defeated Bush by -- 4.3 pts
    • Democrats win by about the margin that Kerry defeated Bush by -- 2.5 pts
    • Democrats win by their lowest margin in the 21st century -- a 2.4 pt margin or lower
    • Republicans win by about the margin that Trump defeated Clinton by -- 0.7 pts
    • Republicans win by their largest margin in the 21st century -- an 0.8 pt margin or higher.
    • Republicans win by the largest margin in the 21st century -- a 10.4 pt margin or higher
      0
  2. 2. How confident are you about your prediction for Biden vs. Trump

    • Certain
    • Very confident
    • Confident
    • Slightly Confident
    • Kind of uncertain, but it feels about right.
    • I'm not confident about it at all, but it's what I think at the moment.
    • I'm not confident in my prediction. I'm just making a guess.
      0
    • I'm not confident in my prediction. I think I basically picked the result that I hope to see on election night.
      0
  3. 3. Trump will win Pennsylvania if the polls show the following numbers on elections day.

    • Trump beating his opponent by +4 in the polls
    • Trump beating his opponent by +3 in the polls
    • Trump beating his opponent by +2 in the polls
    • Trump beating his opponent by +1 in the polls
    • Trump even in the polls vs a Democrat
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 1 pts
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 2 pts
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 3 pts (about the margin of error in some polls)
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 4 pts (about the margin of error in some polls) *Clinton was here in one of the last polls*
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 5 pts (about the margin of error in some polls) *Clinton was here in one of the last polls*
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 6 pts (about the margin of error in some polls) *Clinton was here in one of the last polls*
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 7 pts
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 8 pts
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 9 pts
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by 10 pts
      0
    • Trump losing in the final poll by more than 10 pts
      0
    • The polls were so inaccurate on election day that they will not in any way convince me that Trump will be defeated, even if he's trailing Biden or Warren by more than 10 pts.


Recommended Posts

I'm going to post the electoral pattern for the battleground states, one state at a time. I might do one post a day. 

Here's Pennsylvania in the 21st century:

2000: D- 50.6 ; R- 46.3  [+4.3 D margin]
2004:  D- 50.9; R- 48.4 [+2.5 D margin]
2008: D-54.5; R-44.2 [+10.3 D margin]
2012: D-52.0; R-46.6 [+5.4 D margin]
2016: D- 47.5; R- 48.2 [+0.7 R margin]
2020: Your prediction here
 
Bottom Line: Trump won by the smallest margin in the 21st century, not even winning by 1%. On top of this, his 48.2% was a smaller percent than Bush received when he lost the state in 2004. Clinton, who was as unpopular as Trump in 2016, was the worst performance of an Democrat in the 21st century.  Outside of 2016, PA has been reliably Blue in the 21st century, and Bush couldn't even win the state as an incumbent. Can Trump win this state twice? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dems win PA by about the margin Kerry did with Biden, Trump wins PA by about the margin he did last time if Warren is the nominee. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have Biden winning by 4 pts and Warren by 2 pts. However, I have Trump winning if the polls show Dems winning by only 3 pts or less. I expect the polls be a little better, having learned from some of their mistakes. I'd say I'm about 80% sure Dems win PA in 2020. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I have Biden winning by 4 pts and Warren by 2 pts.

Joe Biden supported NAFTA, and the WTO, he has no chance in the rust belt. Hell, Warren might actually do better than Biden in the rust belt, due to her being a protectionist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, WVProgressive said:

Joe Biden supported NAFTA, and the WTO, he has no chance in the rust belt. Hell, Warren might actually do better than Biden in the rust belt, due to her being a protectionist.

It didn’t seem to hurt Obama in 2008 or 2012 with Biden on the ticket. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, vcczar said:

It didn’t seem to hurt Obama in 2008 or 2012 with Biden on the ticket. 

America has changed since 2012/2008, Clinton lost in 2016 because in the lead up to the election Trump campaigned non-stop there, hammering away about how awful NAFTA is, ho he was against the TPP, and how he was going to bring jobs back, of course now we know he was lying, but Hillary had a terrible record on outsourcing, and "free-trade", so of course  people whose lives had been ruined by deindustrialization weren't going to support her. Nominating Biden would be the biggest mistake the Democrats could make in 2020, people feel left behind, and betrayed by decades of neoliberalism, which Biden represents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.Biden beats Trump by 5.4%.Warren beats Trump by 2.5%

2.Slightly Confident

3.If he leads by 2% or more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...