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RI Democrat

First shot at Canada 2019

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I played a round as Jagmeet Singh and focused mostly on protecting NDP incumbents while also targeting ridings where the polls had the NDP within 10 points or fewer, so about 60-65 ridings total. I mostly ran positive ads, though I did run one attack ad against Scheer and Trudeau each, synced with a positive ad of my own. I had some positive momentum at the end, with Trudeau having significant negative momentum and Scheer about neutral.

Early results, with the Maritimes, NL, and S.E. Quebec reporting. Here's a riding in Quebec with a close race between the Conservatives, the NDP, and the BQ:

image.png.fb4bc65153cc288570947d919a720de1.png

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There's a genuine 3-way race in PEI between the Liberals, Conservatives, and Greens, though I can't tell yet if there are still the big fluctuations every 10 minutes like there have been in some previous versions of the PM4E engine.

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Meanwhile, counting is finished in Newfoundland & Labrador and in S.E. Quebec:

NL: LIB 6 (-1), NDP 1 (+1) - I targeted and won St. John's East by a little over 800 votes.
SEQC: LIB 9 (-2), CON 7 (+2), BQ 6 (+4), NDP 3 (-3), PPC 1 (no change), GRN 0 (-1) - I only won 3 of my 6 targeted seats here, with the losses including Beloeil-Chambly where BQ leader Yves-Francois Blanchet knocked off NDP incumbent Matthew Dube.

 

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The Maritimes have finished counting, while Ontario and the rest of Quebec all have about 30% in. The Liberals are still slightly ahead in the popular vote, but they've lost quite a few seats to the Conservatives in the Maritimes as well as 2 to the Greens (Charlottetown and Malpeque) and 1 to the NDP (Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook).

PEI: GRN 2 (+2), CON 1 (+1), LIB 1 (-3)
NS: LIB 7 (-4), CON 3 (+3), NDP 1 (+1)
NB: CON 7 (+7), LIB 3 (-7)

image.png.c63ebe808f69b0b26f70a92a8b76662f.png

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The vote-rich Eastern provinces are now completely finished counting and the Liberals are only ahead by 14 seats - given what's likely coming in Alberta, it's looking as though BC will decide which party has the most seats, and it seems pretty certain nobody will have a majority. On the NDP side, we've suffered a net loss of 4 seats in Quebec, with Ruth Ellen Brosseau surviving by about a 3-point margin and Outremont returning to the NDP column. We also reclaimed the seat of a certain famous former NDP leader, as seen in the screenshot below.

NCQC: LIB 10 (-2), BQ 9 (+2), CON 8 (+2), NDP 3 (-2)
Montreal-Laval: LIB 17 (-1), NDP 4 (+1), BQ 1 (no change)
GTA West: LIB 19 (-7), CON 5 (+4), NDP 4 (+4)
GTA East: LIB 10 (-1), CON 1 (+1)
N.E. Ontario: CON 18 (+6), LIB 14 (-10), NDP 8 (+6), GRN 1 (+1), IND 0 (-1) - I took all 5 of my targets here, while the Greens took Thunder Bay-Superior North
S. Ontario: CON 25 (+5), LIB 8 (-7), NDP 8 (+2)

image.png.9e17a05b4567b84bdb94a48457e6f463.png

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The prairies are in, and Ralph Goodale's riding of Regina-Wascana has finished in a literal tie, though the game appears to be giving the seat to the Conservatives. The Conservatives also pick up Saskatoon West from the NDP and 3 Liberal seats and 1 NDP seat in Manitoba, while the NDP gain Winnipeg Centre from the Liberals. With Alberta starting to report, the Conservatives have now moved into the lead in the seat count.

MB: CON 9 (+4), LIB 3 (-4), NDP 2 (no change)
SK: CON 13 (+3), NDP 1 (-1), LIB 0 (-1)

image.png.503833b4d1183e599665b4168fa05d90.png

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As might be expected, Alberta is once again a near-monopoly for the Conservatives, with only the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona holding off the blue tide. It looks like Trudeau's late negative momentum really hurt him - the final polls suggested a tossup but the Conservatives now look assured of being the largest party, with only BC's 42 seats and the Yukon still counting. Incidentally, the Greens are ahead in 6 BC ridings and 10 overall right now.

AB: CON 33 (+4), NDP 1 (no change), LIB 0 (-3)
NWT: LIB 1 (no change)
NV: LIB 1 (no change)

image.png.3a1741b9f2502dd201cee1b390823c63.png

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And the final results are in with the Conservatives ahead by 26 seats. Negotiations went absolutely nowhere - even when I offered Trudeau all 15 of my PIPs and confidence-and-supply and asked for nothing in return, he still declined it. Eventually I gave up and closed the negotiation window, after which a Conservative minority government was announced. The Greens fell short of double-digits, though by my calculations, a Liberal-NDP-Green coalition would be able to command a majority with 174 seats total.

Greater Vancouver - LIB 7 (-2), NDP 6 (+1), CON 2 (+1), GRN 1 (+1), IND 1 (no change)
Rest of B.C. - CON 15 (+7), NDP 5 (-3), GRN 3 (+1), LIB 2 (-5)
Yukon - LIB 1

image.png.83ed75b3849f7f50e629b137ef0e52b2.png

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